2024 iPhone shipments likely to decline significantly by about 15% YoY due to structural challenges / iPhone 2024出貨量在可能因結構性挑戰而將顯著衰退約15% YoY
2 min readJan 30, 2024
- My latest supply chain survey indicates that Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to about 200 million units (down 15% YoY). Apple may have the most significant decline among the major global mobile phone brands in 2024.
- iPhone 15 series and new iPhone 16 series shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 1H24 and 2H24, respectively (compared to iPhone 14 series shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 series shipments in 2H23, respectively).
- The iPhone faces structural challenges that will lead to a significant decline in shipments in 2024, including the emergence of a new paradigm in high-end mobile phone design and the continued decline in shipments in the Chinese market.
- The new high-end mobile phone design paradigm includes AI (GenAI) and foldable phones. The main reason for the decline in the Chinese market is the return of Huawei and the increasing preference for foldable phones among high-end users as their first choice for phone replacement.
- Benefiting from the higher-than-expected demand due to the high integration of GenAI functions, Samsung has revised up the shipments of the Galaxy S24 series in 2024 by 5–10%, while Apple has revised down the shipment forecast of iPhone 15 in 1H24.
- Apple’s weekly shipments in China have declined by 30–40% YoY in recent weeks, and this downward trend is expected to continue. The main reason for the decline is the return of Huawei and the fact that foldable phones have gradually become the first choice for high-end users in the Chinese market.
- It is expected that Apple will not launch new iPhone models with significant design changes and the more comprehensive/differentiated GenAI ecosystem/applications until 2025 at the earliest. Until then, it will likely harm Apple’s iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth.
- 我最新的供應鏈調查指出，Apple已下調上游關鍵半導體零組件的2024年iPhone出貨預估至約2億部 (衰退15% YoY)。2024年全球主要手機品牌中，Apple可能是衰退幅度最大者。
- iPhone 15系列與新款iPhone 16系列的出貨量預計將分別在1H24與2H24均衰退10–15% YoY (分別與1H23 iPhone 14系列與2H23 iPhone 15系列的出貨量比較)。
- iPhone因面臨結構性挑戰故2024年出貨量顯著衰退，包括高階手機新設計典範出現與在中國市場的出貨持續衰退。
- 高階手機新設計典範為AI (生成式AI) 手機與摺疊手機。中國市場衰退主因是華為歸來與摺疊手機逐漸成為高階用戶換機首選。
- 受益於需求因高度整合生成式AI功能而優於預期，Samsung已上修Galaxy S24系列的2024年出貨量5–10%，與此同時Apple卻下修了1H24 iPhone 15出貨預估。
- Apple過去數週在中國每週出貨量均衰退約30–40% YoY，而此衰退趨勢預期將持續延續。衰退的主因為華為歸來以及摺疊手機逐漸成為中國市場高階用戶的首選。
- 預期Apple最快在2025年，才會推出設計改變較大的iPhone新機型與發布更全面性/有差異化之生成式AI生態/應用，在此之前上述結構性挑戰可能將持續不利於Apple的iPhone出貨動能與生態成長。
