Yichuan WangThe Failure of Fed Funds Futures to Predict the start of TighteningThe failure of fed funds futures to predict the start of the tightening cycle can be viewed through a risk neutral pricing perspective…3 min read·Mar 31, 2015----
Yichuan WangMarket-Based Probabilities: A Tool for PolicymakersThe gap between market forecasts of inflation based on securities prices and where inflation actually goes is a feature, not a bug.3 min read·Mar 25, 2015----
Yichuan WangThe Danger of Stock in the Long RunI use simulations of stock market histories to show how long run investing is much more risky than is commonly believed. I show that:5 min read·Mar 18, 2015----
Yichuan WangWhy Rebalance?Return data without an underlying economic model tell relatively little about the virtues and dangers of rebalancing3 min read·Feb 24, 2015----
Yichuan WangDid Dish Distort the Auction?A case in which something unfair turns out to be efficient and revenue maximizing3 min read·Feb 21, 2015----
Yichuan WangHousing Prices and Monetary Policy: The Long HistoryA long 140 year history on housing prices and interest rates provides evidence that lower short term interest rates have significant…4 min read·Feb 19, 2015----
Yichuan WangWhat Germany can Learn from Interwar FranceThe story of interwar France should warn governments of the consequences of large capital flows in a fixed exchange rate area.6 min read·Feb 17, 2015----
Yichuan WangThe Problem with Musical ChairsScott Sumner has a recent paper with the Adam Smith institute outlining the basic tenets of Market Monetarism. In this paper he discusses…2 min read·Feb 12, 2015----
Yichuan WangLong Term Bonds, Risk Neutral Pricing, and How Small Shocks get MagnifiedIf I knew for certain that the German 10 year bond would trade at a 3% yield in a year, I would be fantastically bullish on Eurozone stocks…3 min read·Jan 28, 2015----
Yichuan WangWhy Currency Wars are ExpansionaryCurrency wars are expansionary. At least, so long as central bankers keep their eye on domestic aggregate demand, there’s no reason for one…3 min read·Jan 26, 2015--1--1
