2018 Big Board — Returning Players 1.0
Published in
17 min readAug 25, 2017
Earlier in June, maybe even May, I dropped a high-level overview of some of the guys I was excited for with my “Must Watch” Board but this is my Big Board. Two very different animals. For Must Watch, it is a combination of excitement, talent of team, and how much I like the player, while my Big Board is strictly based on on NBA outlook and draft projection.
Example …. A guy like De’Anthony Melton is a much better prospect than Shamorie Ponds, but I am watching Ponds over Melton. Just the way it is.
Back to the Big Board … These returning players are very similar to the Night’s Watch in Game of Thrones, because each one of them needs to protect their own Draft Wall against the Freshman White Walkers, and if they can’t, we’ll watch them fall down the Flagrant 2 Big Board.
Below you will find my Big Board for returning guys only, so don’t be surprised that you won’t find the big sexy, upcoming names like Michael Porter Jr. or Mohammed Bamba. I will definitely look to update this list once the season gets going, but for now, sit back and judge me with fire.
(Note: Hamidou Diallo is also not on this list.)
- Robert Williams, Sophomore, Center, Texas A&M
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Amar’e Stoudemire
Well, Williams would have been a top 10 pick in 2017 and was trending upwards as my number one true big in the draft, and now we get a second opportunity to watch him. Even though his decision to come back was heavily scrutinized, I don’t see an Ivan Rabb-like fall from grace due to the massive rim protector that he projects out to be. With a lot of talented bigs in the freshman class from the top names like Ayton or Bamba to the relatively lesser ones like Mitchell Robinson, we might see a fall for Williams, but that doesn’t mean his skillset is anything to worry about. For him to really stay in the lottery, his skills on the other side of the ball are most important. If he develops a consistent elbow jumper, we could be talking about him as a top five pick. He showed a little bit of it last season towards the end, but a full season of it will be enjoyable to track. - Andrew Jones, Sophomore, Combo Guard, Texas
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Russell Westbrook Ultra Lite… Yeah, I know.
At the end of last season, Jones was ranked 20th on my big board for 2017, but I had hoped he would come back for his sophomore campaign to smooth out the rough spots in his game. Happy days — he did! This might seem high, but outside of Robert Williams, Jones has the most upside among returning players, which is the reason why he ranks second for me. There is just too much athleticism in that 6’4 freak of a sophomore to be any lower. He reminds me of early UCLA Westbrook, who played off the ball due to Jrue Holiday running the show. His athleticism might not be on Westbrook level, but not many are. With Matt Coleman on board for this season, Jones will again be off-the-ball, and if he can really show his progress as a shooter, then we could be looking at a legitimate lottery pick. A lot of people smarter than me will tell you that FT% is a good indicator of someone’s true ability as a shooter, and as a 77% shooter from the line, this gives me hope that the progress will happen for him. - Mikal Bridges, Junior, Wing, Villanova
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Luc Mbah A Moute 2.0 (stole this comp)
Don’t know if it is De’Anthony Melton or Mikal Bridges who the internet loves more, but these two guys have a lot of praise from the deep cut analytics people. With Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart gone, Bridges should have a more prominent role in the offense, which will allow him to showcase his overall game on larger scale. I mean, the guy had a usage rate of 16% — that shit needs to be a lot higher. For someone who shoots so well from the line (90%), he should be attacking the rim every chance he gets. Even though his previous year’s offensive numbers don’t jump off the page, it is his defense that separates him from the pack. He is probably the best defensive prospect out of the returning players. With a 7’0ish wingspan and great instincts, Bridges terrorizes all competition. On defense alone he is worthy of a top 20 pick. With a full season under his belt and a more prominent role within the Nova offense, I think Bridges jumps into the late lottery hype train regardless of age or lack of crazy upside. - Bruce Brown, Sophomore, Combo Guard, Miami
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Larry Hughes on steroids
Like Bridges and Jones, Brown was on my Big Board last season and decided to come back, but unlike the other two, his decision could have been the wrong choice. Brown who turns 21 before the season starts is pretty old for his class, and the question of upside/player growth comes into play. Regardless of age, Brown has a great foundation and looks the part of an impactful piece on a contending team. As a 6’5 combo guard, Brown has the size, strength, and athleticism to play minutes as a rookie based on his defensive skills alone, but he does have some holes in his game. The biggest area, and one that if he improves could turn him into a serious player, is his shooting. Right now, he tends to rely on being the best athlete on the court. While that can get him by in college, he needs to be able to score away from the hoop to be successful at the next level. Personally, I am not that worried about Brown because he seems like a kid who is obsessed with basketball and will pull through. There is a lot of talent in the ACC, but Brown will be First-Team and darkhorse for POY if Miami balls out. - Miles Bridges, Sophomore, Combo Forward, Michigan State
Flagrant 2 Comparison: PJ Tucker 2.0
He might not be the best prospect among returning players, but he looks to be the front-runner for National Player of the Year coming into the season, and is probably the most talked about returning player who had lottery hype. I often refer to him as the wing version of Jared Sullinger, in that he had a dominate freshman campaign and decided to return to college with major preseason award-hype, while having some of the same flaws (non-injury). With his limited length, if he can show that his jumper wasn’t a flash in the pan and become a more viable perimeter defender, then he can definitely solidify himself as a top 10 or so pick in this stacked draft. - Josh Okogie, Sophomore, Combo Guard, Georgia Tech
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Marcus Smart
The way people are currently talking about Donovan Mitchell is what I expect Okogie will be getting around draft time next year. He is a 6’4ish guard with a 7’0 wingspan, who grabbed close to 6 RPG while shooting 38% from distance. Due to his frame and massive arms, it won’t surprise me if he jumps out as the best perimeter defender and along with Bruce Brown, one of the top two rebounding guards in this class. As of now, he has the skill set and tools to be a ridiculously great 3-and-D type player in the NBA, but at 19 he still has major room to grow into a more viable offensive talent. Even though he is rather raw right now and gets by on motor, he does have a great feel for the game which allows him to find openings in the defense for offensive boards, tip-ins, or easy baskets off cuts. He still has work to do when taking it to the rim, but he is amazing at drawing contact. In fact, the best thing about his game is that he gets to the line. As an 18 year old freshman, he led the ACC with the most trips to the charity line last year with 241. If you keep reading, you will find my favorite stat line from last season, but Okogie’s love affair with the charity stripe is definitely second. Even though he has sneaky good vision and passing, I would still love to see him improve in the playmaking department, as he had more turnovers than assists last year. He is in the running for First-Team All-ACC this season, and will shock a lot of people when they first watch him. - Shake Milton, Junior, Combo Guard, SMU
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Patrick McCaw
With Semi, Sterling, and Ben Moore gone from SMU, it means that it is the Shake Show, and I couldn’t be happier. For those who haven’t seen him, Shake is the real deal and has been a favorite of mine for a long time. At 6’7, he has great length and above average playmaking skills, which should make him a lock for the first round next year. I wouldn’t necessarily call him a primary ball handler, but he has no-brainer upside as a secondary playmaker in the NBA. His shooting has improved and it shows in his 42% from distance, but he needs to show more versatility in terms of scoring, not just from spot-up threes. The one downside for a guy name Shake, is you better have the moves to back that name up, and sadly he doesn’t. Shake is more Lonzo than Fultz when it comes to iSo-moves. Even though I think he is middle of the first round material right now, I worry that younger prospects like Hands or Scruggs will jump him once they start showing their upside. - Chimezie Metu, Junior, Stretch Big, USC
Flagrant 2 Comparison: 2017 Serge Ibaka
Similar to Shake, I absolutely love Metu and might be the ringleader of his fan club. The guy is a ridiculously talented offensive player and really showed that in his improvements from freshman to sophomore year. When you look at his frame and length, you think he would be a defensive-minded rim runner who doesn’t do much offensively, but man is that wrong. Instead, he is the complete opposite. He has an advanced offensive game, but also has a great touch from the FT line. Last season he was more of a mid-range guy, and was wildly effective at 44% on two point jumpers. Bringing that range out to the three point line will be massive for Metu and will increase his status for NBA teams. The only concern with Metu, is that for all the good he can do on offense, he is a liability on defense. For someone with his athleticism and length, he should be a much better rim protector. Metu, much like Shake, will need to improve or else he will be jumped by incoming freshman like Brandon McCoy, or other potential sleepers. - De’Anthony Melton, Sophomore, Guard, USC
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Patrick Beverly
We haven’t been on Twitter long, but I don’t think there has been a more thinking man’s prospect than Melton. Seriously, the fans of advanced stats love this guy, and even though I am usually a hipster with this type of shit, Melton is pretty fucking legit. On a team with a lot of talented scorers, Melton shines with doing the little things on a large scale. As a freshman, Melton led the PAC-12 in steals while grabbing over 10 boards and dishing out seven assists per 100 possessions. For us to really get the hype, you need to jump into those deep analytic stats that we pretend to know about. It will be very interesting to see how he plays with Derrick Thornton this season. He is lower on mine than others you will see, but that is mostly due to the fact that I need to see a little more scoring out of him. Sorry guys, I still have some Charles Barkley-like takes in me. I understand that the deep analytic stats are great, but I need to see better shooting than 28% from three out of a lead guard prospect. Regardless of his low scoring output and below average shooting numbers, the skills he does possess are top notch and will make him into the ultimate glue guy for a team at the next level. Like Patrick Beverley, he will be terrorizing anyone and anything put in front of him. - Landry Shamet, Junior, Combo Guard, Wichita State
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Corey Joseph
If you made it this far, you will now find my favorite stat among college prospects from last season: Shamet’s offensive rating of 132. I should just leave my reason for him being 10 at that, but that would be rude. For returning players, Shamet might be the best shooter on our big board and could be top three in the draft next season for legitimate first round prospects. He is efficient from all areas, but he can really bomb it from deep. He is not just a catch and shoot type of guy either, he can create his own shot and has a nice pull up game. When it comes to other areas on offense, Shamet doesn’t scream athleticism, but he is sneaky with how he uses his body to get to the rim. For someone that is this skilled, hopefully he will have the ball in his hands a lot more this season, as his usage rate was below 20%. In terms of areas of improvement, he needs to show more skill as a facilitator (three APG), and add some muscle to his frame. If he can show that he can be a legitimate lead guard at the college level, then he should end up being a top 25ish pick next season. - Jacob Evans, Junior, 3-&-D Wing, Cincy
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Justin Jackson
Jacob Evans might be the most underrated player in the country, and he has all the tools to seriously jump up draft boards. Right now, he fits the mold of the prototypical 3-and-D prospect that everyone loves to rave about. He stands 6’6 with decent length, plays great defense, and can knockdown shots from distance, but there is more to Evans than just shooting and D. For someone that shoots so well from distance (41%), he also finishes well around the rim, and looks to have a decent mid-range game off the dribble. The one area that goes unnoticed is his handles. He might not be a playmaker, but he has enough skill to get separation from his defender and attack the basket. - Ethan Happ, Junior, Skilled Big, Wisconsin
Flagrant 2 Comparison: A much better Tyler Zeller… Like Much Better
Happ is the last of the big three in the internet love fest, but unlike Melton and Mikal, he puts up numbers that the less intelligent fans can understand. At 6’9ish, Happ isn’t the tallest, nor does he have the length to really dominate the way modern fans like, but he has great footwork and I don’t think he ever stops moving when on the court. He might struggle against more athletic bigs, but he has high BBIQ and it shows in his block and steal numbers. His block numbers aren’t Nerlens Noel-like, but when combined with his Big-10 leading steal stats, it is easy to see why people are high on Happ. He does have a lot going against him when it comes to draft outlook, mostly based on the number of talented freshman who are coming this season but I still look at him as a first round guy. Happ is this year’s Biggie Swanigan type prospect with a better NBA outlook. He should be First-Team All-American, and if Miles Bridges didn’t exist, the Big-10 Player of the Year. - Allonzo Trier, Junior, Arizona, Guard
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Randy Foye
Along with Miles Bridges and Ethan Happ, I would put some money on Trier for National Player of the Year. Once Trier returned from that weird suspension, he was an absolute gamer and dominated in all areas. I wouldn’t call him a combo guard, and he still needs to show that he can be a little better of a facilitator, which will be the area I will track the most this season when it comes to NBA upside. He doesn’t have great length either, which is also a negative in terms of defensive upside. Even though I dropped some hate bombs on Trier, he is one of the best pure scorers in the country and can get his shot off in a variety of ways. His scoring will get him drafted, but he needs to improve in those two major areas. He is not the scorer or athlete of CJ McCollum, but he does have similar qualities that NBA draft heads talked about in 2013 with regards to CJ, and he seems to be doing pretty well. - Justin Jackson, Sophomore, 3-and-D Wing, Maryland
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Robert Covington
When it comes to measurements, Maryland’s Justin Jackson stands out. At 6’7 and 220, Jackson looks to be the likely candidate to fill the the void left by Semi Ojeleye for our favorite thick prospect in college basketball. One area that Jackson dwarfs him in is his 7’3 wingspan. He doesn’t offer that much in terms of offensive versatility, but he does shoot 43% from distance. As a probable 3-and-D type of player, Jackson’s lack of playmaking skills isn’t a huge issue, but it would be nice to see him dish out more than 31 total assists this season. The ACC* has a lot of talent, and if Jackson can show that he is capable of locking down both wings and big men, he should shoot up draft boards. - Shamorie Ponds, Sophomore, Guard, St. John’s
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Brandon Jennings
He might be 17 on the big board, but he is top five for guys I am rooting for. Ponds is the the physical embodiment of Brooklyn when on the court. The way he plays and how he carries himself just screams BK, from his aggressive, score-first style of play to his underdog mentality. He has all the confidence in the world in himself, and it shows on the court. He reminds me of Brandon Jennings in terms of style, frame, and competitive nature. Like Jennings, he is a high volume (17 PPG) scorer that needs to show that he can run a team (1.6 A/TO ratio) before we put him as a lock first rounder, but there are a lot of things to like about Ponds going into this season outside of scoring output. As a freshman, Ponds led the Big East with 68 steals and got to the FT line 140ish times last year while shooting 82%. The high volume scoring mentality isn’t the biggest concern to me, instead it is his slight frame that worries me. He has a Steph Curry-like frame, but has a non-Curry like FG% at the rim, which is very problematic for someone who isn’t much of a facilitator. Regardless, there are a lot of talented players in the Big East this year, but Ponds easily opens the season as my conference Player of the Year. - Mustapha Heron, Sophomore, Wing, Auburn
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Jae Crowder
Just by looking at Heron, it is easy to tell that he is cut from the same cloth as Marcus Smart in that he already has an advanced frame for someone who isn’t even 20 yet. He doesn’t jump off the page in terms of elite measurables or crazy athleticism, but as a freshman, he started all 32 games for Auburn and averaged 15 PPG, 6 RPG, and shot a pretty sexy 44%/42%/77%. For a relatively young sophomore, those type of numbers are well deserving of being ranked 15th for returning players, but there are areas he can improve on. What stood out to me the most is that he really doesn’t have an in between game — it’s either driving to the hoop or catch & shoot threes. Heron really lacks the mid-range game, and creating a shot for himself off the dribble. For him to improve his draft stock, adding more offensive versatility is key. Two other areas of concern are defense and playmaking. For someone with his frame, it is shocking that he isn’t a monster on defense, and like most young wings, he really needs to improve on his playmaking. - Austin Wiley, Sophomore?!, Center, Auburn
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Andrew Bogut
The top half of this draft is loaded with talented guys like Ayton and Bamba who will both will be 19 when the season starts, while Wiley who already has a year of SEC play under his belt won’t turn 19 until January. That is crazy to me, especially when most guys are coming in older than expected. It will be fun to see what he does as a sophomore. Wiley is the definition of a big boy, at 6’10 with a 7’5 wingspan and weighing close to 260 pounds. He runs the floor pretty well for someone his size, and eats up a lot of space which makes him a good rebounder, especially on the offensive end. For guys like Wiley who are more in the mold of those outdated, non-stretch bigs, it will be nice to see if he adds more to his offensive repertoire in terms of post moves and improves on his rim protection (1.3 BPG). Even though his numbers are nothing to write home about, his age, height, and girth is why he is this high for returning players. - Tyus Battle, Sophomore, Guard, Syracuse
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Brandon Rush
It takes a while for freshman to catch on, and even though he started 22 games, it was the last seven that showed what Battle could be this upcoming season. Outside of his tools and major upside, there isn’t much to talk through with Battle. He is very much on this board for what he could be this season. At 6’6, Battle is the ideal height for a guard at the next level, and he also has decent length with his 6’8 wingspan. Like most Cuse guys, it is tough to gauge their value on defense since they pretty much only play 2–3 zone, but Battle has all the tools to be a great defender. On offense, although he only averaged 11 PPG, he did shoot 79% from the FT line and finished pretty well around the rim at 60%. Even though he has a weird Josh Jackson-like hitch in his shooting form, he hit 36% of his shots from deep, and it will be something to watch this season as an area for improvement. Look for Battle to make some serious strides, and he should be the go-to guy for Cuse this year. - Rawle Alkins, Sophomore, Wing/Guard, Arizona
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Shabazz Muhammad/Norm Powell hybrid
I have a longstanding feud with Rawle that dates back to his junior year in high school, but I’ll try not to let that fog my judgment. In terms of draft value, Rawle took a significant hit when he measured at 6’2 without shoes at the combine after being advertised at 6’5. For his height, Rawle will need to show that his 38% from three wasn’t a fluke and that he can actually become a valuable 3-and-D type player in the league. Players who are similar in size but can defend multiple positions like Norm Powell or Donovan Mitchell are little quicker than Rawle, but he should be able to stick with guys due to his 6’8 wingspan and, more importantly, his 230ish frame. A lot of people will say that Rawle has secondary ball handler upside, but I just don’t see it. Hopefully his jump shot improves from three and mid-range and it allows for him to stick in that 3-and-D role. - Amir Coffey, Sophomore, Wing, Minnesota
Flagrant 2 Comparison: Thabo Sefolosha
Similar to Battle, Coffey is on the list due to our expectations for this season over last season’s production. I will be the first to say that I may be overvaluing his NBA upside, but Coffey has everything you are looking for in an NBA wing. At 6’8 with decent length, Coffey has ideal size for an NBA wing with above-average athleticism that often goes unnoticed. Even though he appears slow, Coffey is a confident driver that finishes at a 76% clip at the rim. Alongside his underrated athleticism, his playmaking skills also go unloved. He has sneaky good handles and vision. Even with the Big 10’s best PG on the roster in Nate Mason, it shouldn’t stop Pitino from allowing Coffey to run the offense from time to time. Heading into his second season for him to truly take root as an NBA prospect, he needs to show more assertiveness as a go-to scorer and become a more consistent jump shooter. His shooting form is nice and looks smooth, but as of now he is mostly a catch-and-shoot type of guy. For him to really take the next step as a prospect, improving his mid-range and how he scores off-the-dribble away from the hoop is essential.
THE ACC* — well, Maryland is in the BIG10 …. forgot about that. Still, he will have to go up against Jaren Jackson, Miles Bridges, Eric Curry and others.
(Second Note: This has been a long time coming, just took forever to actually get around to posting it)
