A System Mindset to improve your decision analysis as outlined by Safi Bahcall
Safi Bahcall in his wonderful book “Loonshots”, describes the various levels of improvement, leading up to a systems mindset (p142).
The weakest teams don’t analyze failures at all. They just keep going. That’s zero strategy .
Teams with an outcome mindset, level 1, analyze why a project or strategy failed . The storyline was too predictable . The product did not stand out enough from competitors ’ products . The drug candidate’s data package was too weak . Those teams commit to working harder on storyline or unique product features or a better data package in the future .
Teams with a system mindset , level 2 , probe the decision — making process behind a failure . How did we arrive at that decision ? Should a different mix of people be involved , or involved in a different way ? Should we change how we analyze opportunities before making similar decisions in the future ? How do the incentives we have in place affect our decision — making ? Should those be changed ?
System mindset means carefully examining the quality of decisions , not just the quality of outcomes .
A failed outcome , for example , does not necessarily mean the decision or decision process behind it was bad . There are good decisions with bad outcomes . Those are intelligent risks , well taken , that didn’t play out .
Evaluating decisions and outcomes separately is equally important in the opposite case : bad decisions may occasionally result in good outcomes . You may have a flawed strategy , but your opponent made an unforced error , so you won anyway . You kicked the ball weakly toward the goalkeeper , but he slipped on some mud , and you scored .
Which is why probing wins , critically , is as important , if not more so , as probing losses . Failing to analyze wins can reinforce a bad process or strategy . You may not be lucky next time . You don’t want to be the person who makes a poor investment , gets lucky because of a bubble , concludes he is an investment genius , bets his fortune , and then loses it all next time around .
In decision making you need to be clear if you are clever or just lucky…
Want more like this?
- Systems Archetypes- Places to intervene — An advantage with using systems archetypes as a problem solving methodology is that places to intervene in the system can be thought through and played with.
- Serendipity and the Adjacent Possible — Why do many great ideas get discovered at almost the same time? How can you cultivate serendipity and move into the adjacent possible with your work?
- Are you open to being wrong? Intellectual humility, Dunning Kruger and foxes and hedgehogs… — It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
- Luck and reversion to the mean — Are you fully acknowledging the role luck is playing in the outcomes? Does a good outcome reflect your good skill, or did you just get lucky?
