Three horizons framework
A way of thinking about the future
The three horizons framework, developed by Bill Sharp provides a tool for thinking about the future.
- The first horizon — H1 — is the dominant system at present. It represents ‘business as usual’.
- The third horizon — H3 — emerges as the long term successor to business as usual.
- The second horizon — H2 — is a pattern of transition activities and innovations, people trying things out in response to the ways in which the landscape is changing
The International Futures Forum describes the three horizons (iffpraxis.com)
The first horizon — H1 — is the dominant system at present. It represents ‘business as usual’. We rely on these systems being stable and reliable. But as the world changes, so aspects of business as usual begin to feel out of place or no longer fit for purpose. Eventually ‘business as usual’ will always be superseded by new patterns of activity.
The third horizon — H3 — emerges as the long term successor to business as usual. It grows from fringe activity in the present that introduces completely new ways of doing things but which turn out to be much better fitted to the world that is emerging than the dominant H1 systems.
The second horizon — H2 — is a pattern of transition activities and innovations, people trying things out in response to the ways in which the landscape is changing. Some of these innovations will be absorbed into the H1 systems to improve them and to prolong their life (we call them ‘H2 minus’) while some will pave the way for the emergence of the radically different H3 systems (these we call ‘H2 plus’).
The model offers a structured way into a conversation about (again from The International Futures Forum iffpraxis.com):
- the dominant system and the challenges to its sustainability into the future, ie the case for change (horizon 1);
- the desirable future state, the ideal system we desire and of which we can identify elements in the present that give us encouragement and inspiration (horizon 3);
- the nature of the tensions and dilemmas between H3 vision and H1 reality, and the subtle processes of change, new ways of working, new capacities, new structures even, required to navigate the transition between them;
- developing a mature perspective that accepts the need both to address the challenges to the first horizon and nurture the seeds of the third. This is not an either/or, good/bad discussion. We need both to ‘keep the lights on’ today, and to find a way of keeping them on in the future in very different circumstances.
Examples of Disruptive Innovation being used positively to shape the future or negatively by the incumbent to maintain status quo
Exploring the space
The framework provides a way for stakeholders from all sides of the spectrum to explore the space of future possibilities and better understand both ways to shape it alternate points of view. The following sets of question give prompts to explore this space:
Kate Raworth (Three Horizons Framework) highlights a more detailed series of questions to explore the three horizons further.
H1 — Business as Usual
- a. What is business as usual? the key characteristics of the prevailing system
- b. how did we get here? What values, cultures led to this?
- c. why do we believe it is not fit for purpose and failing? give examples. How fast do we want to see it decline — collapse is rarely beneficial
- d. is there anything valuable about the old system we would like to retain rather than loose
H3 — Emerging Future
- e. what is the future we want to bring about? its key characteristics.
- f. what are seeds of that future look like? give specific examples
- g. who’s work are these present possibilities built upon? what values did they have?
- h. how can they be scaled and spread? Give examples of actors already working on this,
- i. what are competing visions of the future being pursued by others. could we collaborate with them if shared vision? if competing, how do we prevent their vision derailing ours?
H2 — Disruptive Innovation
- j. what is being disrupted? think of the many technological factors
- k. what are the roots of those disruptions? what would it look like if we captured H2- or harness H2+? What can be done to strategically ensure it can be harnessed? Give examples. why did it happen? what made it possible?
- l. if you are a disruptive actor what can you do to ensure you are not captured by H2- but rather harnessed H2+
Exploring Mindsets
We are all too familiar with stakeholders refusing to see other points of view, so intrenched in their own world mindset. The Three Horizons call out these mindset and how advocates in each camp can see each other both in positive and negative ways.
Negative mindsets based on Horizons
Flipping the Frame — Positive mindsets
Further reading
- Book- Three Horizons — The Patterns of Hope — Bill Sharpe
- Three Horizons Framework: The Three Voices — YouTube
- Three Horizons: an introduction — YouTube
- Three Horizons Toolkit — PDF
- The Three Horizons framework explained by Bill Sharpe — YouTube
- Three Horizons Framework by Bill Sharpe — YouTube
- Three Horizons Framework — a quick introduction — YouTube
- The Approach (iffpraxis.com)
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