The Surprise of the East: Are the Mets for Real?

Almost 20 games into the season, contenders across baseball have struggled in one way or another. The Astros bats seemed dormant until now; the Dodgers, Cubs, Nats, Indians, and Yankees are all struggling with 0.500.

Sleeper teams across baseball are trying to capitalize, trying to string some wins to build a cushion to fall on once these once division favorites start winning again.

One team in particular has caught my eye: the New York Mets.

After winning the 2015 National League Pennant and the 2nd wild card game spot in 2016, the Mets have become an afterthought. The Mets were supposed to be a pitching juggernaut for years to come with aces Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey headlining the staff. That staff and the Mets in general however, could not stay healthy in 2017. The Mets finished with a disappointing 70–92.

Some have blamed their training staff, and justifiably so, for their woes— Noah Syndergaard once told trainers that he didn’t want to take an MRI because he felt fine. He left his next start on April 30 experiencing tightness in his bicep. He wouldn’t join the team again until late September. Others have blamed an old school management style from Terry Collins (beyond just 2017) for their woes.

The Metropolitans have since revamped, hiring both a new training staff and analytically driven Mickey Callaway to replace retiring Terry Collins as skipper. Callaway was previously the pitching coach for the Cleveland Indians. Through 20 games, the Mets are 14–6 and have a 4.5 game lead over preseason division favorite Washington Nationals.

The NL East was supposed to be easy pickings for the Nationals. Despite Bryce Harper’s efforts, the Nationals have instead straddled 0.500, ranking behind the Mets, Braves, and Phillies in the NL East.

The Mets jumped to an 11–1 start but have struggled since, going 3–5. Any one team can have a hot 2 weeks, so are the Mets just riding that early season high or was that 12 game run more indicative of who the 2018 Mets are?

First off, let’s examine how the Mets are winning: in their 14 wins, they have allowed 41 runs or 2.92 Runs per game. In all but 3 of those games they allowed 4 or fewer runs. They have the 11th best ERA in baseball compared to 3rd to last in 2017.

At first glance, the Mets big three starters are not doing as well as we would hope. Jacob deGrom looks fine, but Harvey has a 6.00 ERA and Syndergaard has a respectable 3.29 ERA but the Mets faithful know he has another gear in him.

While both Syndergaard and deGrom turned slow starts to the season into more promising starts, Matt Harvey has struggled almost all year, eventually leading him to a demotion into the bullpen. He’s only pitched once in his MLB career in relief.

The timing of success of Syndergaard and deGrom vs of the team is opposite of what you’d expect. In their more recent dominant starts, the Mets have struggled and while the team did better when they struggled. So what’s happening elsewhere in the staff?

One move Callaway brought from Cleveland was to move Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman to the pen. In Cleveland, the Tribe honed Andrew Miller’s ability as a reliever with his experience as a starter and turned him into a multi inning “fireman”. Both Lugo and Gsellman had promising late season call ups as starters in 2016 but had struggled through their 2017 campaigns. Both have had success in their new roles. They have faced various situations, anywhere from 1 batter to 3 innings.

What I’m afraid of seeing for the Mets is when there are some shake ups in the rotation (through injury or performance). As the staff shakes up more who moves around?

With Harvey moving to the bullpen, Mickey Callaway faces his first test as Mets skipper. How will he handle Harvey in the pen? How will he handle Jason Vargas’s integration into the Mets rotation?

Personally, I think the move to the bullpen for Harvey is long overdue. After a year off recovering from Tommy John, things looked promising in 2015 but he’s since fell, off posting a 4.86 ERA in 2016 and a 6.70 ERA in 2017. He has an ERA of 6.00 in 21.0 innings pitched in 2018.

Each step closer to recovery was actually a step back, and ultimately a delay of when he could have started developing as a reliever.

The big test for Mickey Callaway is what happens when Syndergaard or deGrom has to miss two starts or more? If Harvey becomes successful in his new role, who will replace Syndergaard or deGrom? Will it be Lugo? Gsellman? Harvey? All three have experience starting but have been rocky in the role. Will Zack Wheeler continue this success or fall off like he did in spring training? Who replaces him if he falls off?

The Mets have a pitching paradox; they seem to have starting pitching depth but they also don’t. They have a lot of starters but half of them are question marks as starters. No matter how these “failed starters” perform in the bullpen role, you have to really wonder if putting any of them as a starter is a wise idea. If they strive in their new role, you don’t want any struggles as a starter to mess with them psychologically, but if push comes to shove Mickey Callaway will be forced to.

If, god forbid, deGrom or Syndergaard sustain a longer term injury, the worst mistake Callaway can do is to rotate through the three (Lugo, Gsellman, and Harvey) trying to find a good stick in the starter role until deGrom or Syndergaard can return.

In terms of hitting, the Mets don’t have the modern household names (the Seagers, the Lindors, the Harpers), they have solid names across the board. Their names are nothing too flashy in 2018 (although some would say Yoenis Cespedes is), but they get the job done.

Some will point out question marks such as Todd Frazier maintaining a 0.420 OBP (he won’t), and Adrian Gonzalez sporting a 0.772 OPS, but in the other side of performance there are other also bounce back candidates in Yoenis Cespedes (whose 0.650 OPS) and Jay Bruce (whose OPS is 0.615). In the end I think some bats will fall and some will rise to even out.

Ultimately, the foundation of the Mets is their pitching. To have continued success, the Mets must try to stay as healthy as possible. The Mets must also create a good pitching dynamic where everyone knows their role. Any shifting of roles must stay seamless. The onus is on both the new training staff and Callaway. The training staff cannot realistically have everyone stay 100% for 162 games, and Callaway can only do so much if he’s short staffed.

I think the Mets are a nice surprise so far. They are a reminder that one year out of contention doesn’t mean you can’t bounce back fast soon after. But they weren’t contenders in 2017 for a reason. It’s hard to tell if they fixed everything that went wrong in 2017 but through 20 games it looks like there’s a good chance they have.

I predict the Mets will win 87–89 games, and fight for the second wild card spot. A lot of things can happen between now and October, but barring a major injury bug these Mets will be making noise in September.