What’s Wrong and What’s Right With Astros Starting Pitching?
The 2017 Houston Astros dazzled the American League with their bats. They had 7–8–9 hitters that could hit 3–4–5 for some teams. Compare that to the 2018 Astros who have taken the league by storm with spectacular starting pitching.
Three weeks into the season the Astros starters are tied with the Red Sox starters in fWAR and second behind them in ERA. The Astros also sport the highest strikeout rate in baseball, punching out 12.15 batters every 9 innings.
Gerrit Cole, who the Astros acquired from the Pirates last winter, has dominated opposing batters, punching them out 36 times in 21 innings, for an insane strikeout rate of 15.43 K/9 while only walking 1.71 per nine innings. The Astros are undefeated in the four games he has started.
While Cole is mowing down batters with his increased breaking ball usage, Dallas Keuchel has uncharacteristically struggled to find the zone, walking batters at an abysmal rate of 3.91 BB/9 (5.4 through his first three games). This has hindered his ability to pitch deep into games, failing to reach the 6th inning twice in four starts.
Gerrit Cole
When the Astros acquired former first overall pick Gerrit Cole, I was only cautiously excited. He was a good pitcher, yes, but not really noteworthy since 2015. For a pitcher touted for his fastball I was not really impressed by his strikeout numbers. This wasn’t the only time the Astros had tried to trade for Cole; before the deadline in 2017, they tried, but nothing came to fruition.
I had the opportunity to watch Cole live in Citi Field while the rumors were swirling, and I was not impressed: he was pulled after pitching five innings, giving up 7 runs, including 3 dingers.
To stay positive after a World Series win, I had to remember that he would probably be our third or fourth starter. Probably the best fourth starter in decades.
Astros pitching coach Brent Strom has a track record of taking pitchers to the next level. The trend has obviously continued with Cole, but how exactly has Strom taken Cole there?
The most obvious difference, which everyone saw coming, was an increased usage of the breaking ball and decreased fastball usage. The Astros are notorious in their use of breaking (see Lance McCullers) and off speed (see Chris Devenski) pitches in their pitching philosophy, a philosophy that extends from the analytically driven front office headed by Jeff Luhnow.
Through his first three games, Gerrit Cole has dropped his fastball usage to 53.2% (compared to 60.1% in 2017 and 64.5% in his career).
His fastball has looked better than ever with more life on the ball, inducing swings and misses galore in his first three games.
Even in his last game against Seattle, a game in which he got zero swings and misses with his fastball, the fastball was full of life. He buckled up Mitch Haniger in the 7th with 95 MPH heater on the outside corner.
With more swings and misses, spin rate was definitely in play. Gerrit Cole has increased his previously average fastball spin rate from 2150 RPM to 2331 RPM (this is through 100 four seam fastballs thrown).
While the increased value of his fastball probably pushes his pitching to Cy Young levels through four starts, it’s his increased usage in his breaking balls that really make the meat of his “comeback” to 2015 form.
Gerrit Cole has more or less dropped the two seamer, and increased his slider use from 17.3% in his career to 21.5%, and his curveball usage from 11.6% to 17.8%. Cole particularly likes to use his slider more on 2 strike counts when he throws it 32.4% of the time.
Another notable improvement Cole has had is his increased success against left handed batting — especially with so many left handed hitters he’s faced through the injury plagued Rangers.
In 2017, Cole had an awful 0.794 OPS against left handers (and a wOBA 0.335). In 2016 those numbers were 0.869 and 0.371. His numbers this year? 0.539 and 0.241, more akin to his 2015 season (in which he finished 4th in Cy Young voting).
So what happened here? Let’s look at the heat maps for his slider against lefties the last 3 years
His last two years in Pittsburgh show an aim to get grounders, (consistent with a 20% drop in grounders thus far), vs a general approach to attack inside against lefties with his slider.
Cole seems to get more contact higher in the zone, but that will come with just pitching more there. He seems to be getting less contact in the upper zone with his slider, either the batter is looking or they just miss the pitch.
It is even more pronounced with 2 strikes; Cole is just missing bats high against lefties with his slider.
There are still questions with Cole; he has a 100% left on base percentage (which has to go down), and a BABIP of 0.212.
Cole definitely looked more human in the Seattle game facing more base runners in the early portions of the game and only striking out five batters. However he retired the final eleven batters he faced with four strikeouts and never reaching a three ball count: a performance more akin to his first three starts.
So where does Cole end up at the end of the season? His last game in Seattle is a very good sign for the Astros. It’s ridiculous to think he can sustain his performance in his first three games, but his continued success against left handed hitting, and ability to strike players out when needed is only good signs for the Astros.
Dallas Keuchel
On the flip side, the Astros’ Dallas Keuchel, winner of the 2015 American League Cy Young, has not yet put a complete campaign since he won the award. In 2016, injuries in his neck hampered his ability to pitch and finished with 4.55 ERA (and notably a 5 point drop in his ground ball rate). In 2017 world series campaign his campaign started off well, posting a 1.67 ERA through 11 starts, but neck issues arose again in June and after a bumpy return from the DL he finished the season with a 2.90 ERA. A little disappointing considering his phenomenal start.
While his ground ball rate and left on base percentage rebounded, his BB/9 rose to a worrying (for Keuchel’s pedigree) 2.9 BB/9. For comparison his 2015 Cy Young campaign he had a spectacular 1.98 BB/9.
Here are the stats for his first 3 starts in his 2018 campaign.
The first thing we notice is his inability to get through games. Known for his efficiency drawing weak contact and ability to stretch pitch counts, this is very concerning.
His first start was a quality start, but was the worst start among the Astros starters one time through the rotation. His second start didn’t see many runs put on the board, but he was pitching through high leverage situations throughout the game. He faced three ball counts five times and walked four of those batter. Keuchel only had one perfect inning, and had a runner reach second three of his five innings.
The most obvious thing to look into is his tendency to walk people through these three games. While he was not getting many calls that normally go his way in Minnesota, that does not explain his control, or lack of it, against the Orioles and the Rangers.
However, Keuchel’s fourth start had a lot to be excited about moving on in 2018. He pitched 8 innings, striking out 6 Mariners and most importantly only walking one (and he was almost certainly pitching around Nelson Cruz with a runner on second. Lefty Kyle Seager was on deck).
His fastball was absolutely on, painting the corners and buckling batters throughout the game, and when batters did swing it was almost always soft contact. Nelson Cruz got a hold of two of his pitches, but other than that the infield was going through routine slow rollers.
In addition to his fastball, his slider was also on most of the game. While the change up was hit or miss, this bodes very well.
Keuchel’s BABIP is 60 points higher than it normally is, and his soft contact is at career high levels. Keuchel must command the strike-zone better than his first three starts, but if the game against Seattle is any indication, we are much closer to 2015 Keuchel than 2016. Every pitcher has their bad games, and it looks more like Keuchel just had to go through them early in the season.
So what is left to say about these two pitchers?
Realistically there’s no way Gerrit Cole’s 0.212 BABIP and 100% LOB will be sustainable. His propensity for home runs is still a concern (all but one of his runs given up came from the long ball). His strikeout numbers are clearly vastly improved but don’t expect his K/9 to be 14+ all year. But barring injury I think Cole can make another Cy Young push this year.
As for Keuchel, his soft contact rate is as good as ever, and with a BABIP of 0.301 through his first three games, it just seems that Keuchel wasn’t getting a lot of help from the Baseball Gods. Command issues must be addressed as this is his bread and butter, but with an extremely promising game commanding the zone in Seattle, I think he has bucked the early trend.
Once a rotation headed by Scott Feldman in 4 short years, this could be one of the greatest staffs of all time.
