2016 NBA Lottery Re-Draft
With the 2016–17 season winding down, here’s a look back at how the top picks in last year’s draft should have transpired.
The NBA Draft is never predictable. The talents that a player showcases in collegiate or international play may not translate seamlessly to the next level, while different factors — from situation to personal attitude — can be sizable determinants for one’s success. For the 2016 rookie class, though, that holds especially true.
In what was regarded as one of the weaker draft crops in recent years, the overwhelming majority of rookies have gone through relatively uninspiring campaigns. Malcolm Brogdon — the 36th pick — is leading the pack in scoring with just 10.2 points per game, while the top overall pick, Ben Simmons, is yet to play due to a foot fracture sustained during the offseason.
As The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor put it, this is a “role players rookie class.” That means that this draft doesn’t wield a bevy of players with inordinately high ceilings, and that the determinants for success should be based around a player’s ability to fill a specific niche, more so than their ability to reach a higher echelon of production in some cases — and vice versa in others.
That also means that those aforementioned determinants — situations and personal attitudes — have played an incredibly important role in weeding out the best from this class. Brogdon has been given a stable role in Milwaukee, and one in which his smart, calculated approach has meshed well as the steadfast response to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s chaotic displays of basketball wizardry. On the other hand, we’ve seen Jakob Poeltl — a consensus top 10 prospect in many circles — get pushed to the periphery of the Raptors’ depth-laden frontcourt.
Those who have worked the hardest have been rewarded as well. Yogi Ferrell, who went undrafted, played his tail off on a handful of 10-day contracts before landing a starting gig in Dallas prior to Nerlens Noel’s arrival. Thon Maker has also made some incredibly impressive strides behind a whirlwind of training regiments and body-building exercises in Milwaukee, transforming from an iffy shot in the dark to somebody who would have a legitimate argument to go much earlier than 10.
It’s important to remember, though, that gauging a group’s potential for success after just one season of play is a slippery slope in many ways. Roles will change, while further development often unlocks better production from players whose body — or even game — just isn’t ready for the NBA in year one. And thus, it’s still important to factor in upside when projecting a draft’s best players in the earlier stages of development, even if they have underwent rather lengthy struggles during their first campaign.
Just for reference, here is my top 14 from before last year’s draft:
(1) Jamal Murray, (2) Ben Simmons, (3) Brandon Ingram, (4) Marquese Chriss, (5) Kris Dunn, (6) Dragan Bender, (7) Jaylen Brown, (8) Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot, (9) Buddy Hield, (10) Jakob Poeltl, (11) Skal Labissiere, (12) Deyonta Davis, (13) Dejounte Murray, (14) Domantas Sabonis
So, with that said, here’s how I’d rehash the lottery should it take place today.
1. Philadelphia 76ers — Jamal Murray, PG/SG, Kentucky
This might be a stretch. It might be crazy. But it’s also a hill I’m more than willing to die on.
Murray was my top prospect since before the draft, as his ultra-skilled approach and knockdown shooting is something that virtually any NBA rotation can benefit from. He brings scoring versatility to the perimeter, while also boasting the ability to run the show on offense — something he has had much more freedom to do in spurts as of late.
With floor spacing being such a massive focal point in today’s offensive schemes — and something the Sixers are in great need of as well — Murray’s placement here shouldn’t be all that surprising. He’s unequivocally the best shooter in this year’s class, and is finally showcasing some of the wrinkles in his game that often got covered up by the backcourt depth at Kentucky.
Alongside his obvious prowess as a perimeter shooter, Murray has shown a sneaky passing touch that could allow him to up his game to the next level as either a point guard or a secondary initiator at the two spot. He’s a dangerous threat in the pick-and-roll, combining solid vision with a nice arsenal of floaters and mid-range jumpers he can fall back on when creating his own shot. Not only is he this class’ most polished perimeter scorer, but he could be the lottery’s most polished playmaker.
He finishes well around the rim too, utilizing his quickness to weave his way through traffic and finish with finesse at the basket. He’s not the same explosive athlete that some of his Kentucky-based predecessors are, but still possesses the slithery ball handling and quick first step needed to work his way into the teeth of the defense.
Murray has been heavily limited in his role this season, playing two-guard behind both Gary Harris and Will Barton early in the year before being upgraded to backup point guard behind Jameer Nelson more recently. Regardless, though, Murray has been able to display plenty of flashes to warrant optimism moving forward. His off-the-dribble game was something that was questioned heavily in lieu of an off-ball-centric role in college, yet this is emerging as a potential strong suit of his when afforded more responsibility on the offensive end.
Murray’s game was molded into a certain role rather than built around during his tenure at Kentucky, part of the reason as to why he was overlooked to the extent that he was. The Canadian native played point guard in international play prior to his collegiate career, yet was utilized almost solely as an off-ball scorer alongside Tyler Ulis with the Wildcats. It’s the same reason why Karl-Anthony Towns was a backup during his one season in Lexington, while Devin Booker was so unheralded as a late lottery pick.
Kentucky doesn’t always allow for the full expanse of their players’ skill sets to be shown, and that likely played a major part in Murray’s slide on draft night. Will he end up as a better than both Simmons and Ingram? Maybe not, but his game fits the modern NBA in virtually every capacity. He’s an elite scorer, and combining that with a high basketball I.Q. along with solid passing acumen is bound to yield some extensive success moving forward.
In this scenario, Philadelphia would be able to give him plenty of room to operate. He’d have the ability to step in as the Sixers’ starting point guard, working through the ebbs and flows of his developing game while playing alongside a strong interior presence in Joel Embiid. He’d also be inserted into one of the league’s best player development systems, an oft-overlooked aspect of a team that, in the long run, can have a significant impact on future success.
Murray’s game fits the Sixers’ needs for both improved guard play and perimeter scoring, while spacing the floor in ample fashion for their interior threats. He’d also be able to share the playmaking load with Dario Saric, who could give Murray the freedom to run through the Philadelphia’s maze of screens and dribble-handoffs en route to open looks on the offense end.
Defense has been the biggest concern with Murray, as he can get blown by when facing more impressive athletes. His energy, however, is extremely promising on that end, and the Sixers have done a more than solid job of improving defensive play from subpar defenders in recent years.
In a league headed by elite guard play, Murray has the potential to be a special talent on the perimeter. His awkward fit at Kentucky clouded his draft stock a bit, but we’re now beginning to see the semblances of an All-Star caliber contributor on the perimeter. This was a three player draft, and Murray is both the best fit and the most proven entity available.
2. Los Angeles Lakers — Ben Simmons, SF/PF, LSU
That means Ben Simmons drops to Los Angeles, where Magic Johnson and company — albeit they weren’t the ones drafting at the time — would be more than pleased to take the former top recruit.
Simmons had an interesting collegiate stint, putting up massive numbers in a relatively uninspiring manner while at LSU. He averaged 19.2 points, 11.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game, yet showed inconsistent defensive effort and a somewhat lackadaisical approach to the game for a team that would eventually miss out on the NCAA tournament.
With that said, some of that can be attributed to both the lack of talent around him and the lack of intrigue around a season at LSU, which was mostly a formality for somebody who was locked into the top spot on most draft boards throughout the season. The Australian’s incredible physical tools at 6'10'’, in combination with an impressive feel for the game, gives him perhaps the highest upside of this class. Considering this class doesn’t necessarily boast a ton of star potential, that’s enough to keep him in the top 2.
The lowdown on Simmons’ game is relatively well-known at this point. He’s arguably the purest point forward entering the league since LeBron, providing somebody who can defend multiple positions while effectively running the offense on the other end. He’s at his best with the ball in his hand, where he can push the break, handle in the pick-and-roll, or excel as the assist-man out of the high post.
Simmons’ ability to find the open teammate simply doesn’t manifest itself in players with his physique, and that’s the overwhelming reason behind his insertion at the number one spot on draft night. Simmons is the personification of versatility, and that’s becoming an increasingly-imperative factor in NBA rotations nowadays.
The catch with Simmons, however, stems from the other aspects of his game — namely his shooting. He rarely ventured outside of 15-feet when looking for his shot while at LSU, and combined that with a noteworthy hesitance in searching out his own offense in general. The best parts of his game come when he’s distributing to others, but his upside can’t be maximized without the development of a reliable scoring game outside of the post.
While he did show some improvements during Summer League prior to his injury — attacking smaller defenders more willingly and growing into his mid-range shot a bit — there’s still a lot of room to grow. If he can develop the reliable jumper that’s requisite of most modernized stars, there’s no reason why he can’t be better than the aforementioned Murray. Slotting him second is by no means an indictment of Simmons as a prospect.
His fit on the Lakers is undeniable as well. Luke Walton loves to push the pace, and he’d give Simmons plenty of young talent to do so with. While their floor spacing may be a work in progress, he’d be gifted the luxury of a point guard who’s capable of both initiating the offense and operating as an off-ball scorer in D’Angelo Russell. They’d also be able to run small with Julius Randle and Larry Nance Jr. improving their jumper, while ideally being able to build around Simmons with more shooters in the foreseeable future.
The Lakers jump on upside here and take the clear number two if Murray comes off the board first.
3. Boston Celtics — Brandon Ingram, SF, Duke
Ingram is an interesting case, as his struggles this season have led some to sour on him after his hype-filled run to the second overall selection back in June. His struggles, though, aren’t caused by his lack of skill. They mostly stem from his lack of physical maturity, something that he should be able to improve in the coming years.
The former Duke star’s athletic tools are apparent upon the eye test alone. At 6'9'’(give or take), he possesses a wingspan that exceeds 7'3'’, giving him bountiful potential on both sides of the basketball. His length allows him to rise above his defender with relative ease on his jump shot, while it also allows him to play the passing lanes and recover off of drives at an extremely high level on the on the other end.
Those physical tools, however, remain vastly underdeveloped, which has be the leading catalyst for a lot of his struggles this season. His pencil-esque frame makes it difficult for Ingram to contend with stronger, NBA-caliber athletes around the basket, while his offensive game is forced off-kilter at times by more physical defenders. The potential that drew some fringe-KD comparisons is still there, but — as expected — he’ll need a few years of physical development to reach it.
That said, Ingram’s potential is something worth gambling on.
Offensively, Ingram’s ability to attack defenses with long, fluid strides makes him difficult to contain in the halfcourt. He can take bigger defenders off the dribble and execute in the post versus smaller ones, using his elite combination of burst and length to create space and get off his jumper. In college he showcased a handful of nifty fadeaways that haven’t quite become the norm yet with Los Angeles, but are beginning to ingratiate themselves into his arsenal more and more as he increases his comfort level with NBA basketball.
His 3-point shooting has been the biggest let-down thus far, as his percentage has dropped off slightly from college to the pros (33.3% to 29.6%). His mechanics are a bit awkward at times — his shot was never his purest asset at Duke — but they should stabilize as he progresses. He’ll be able to work plenty on his shot over the summer, and the trends of today’s league bode well for his ability to show rapid improvement in the coming seasons.
The Lakers have also showcased Ingram’s playmaking ability this season, throwing him into pick-and-rolls and allowing him to handle the ball in transition more so than he did while at Duke. He’s still prone to make the occasional bad turnover, but that’s something he should be able to clean up as he gets stronger and more experienced when driving to the basket. A player with physical tools of his ilk who poses a legitimate threat as a passer is a rarity, even in today’s versatility-driven league.
The Celtics get the luxury of putting Ingram into a reserve role where he isn’t forced to overexert himself. He can learn from the veteran presences elsewhere on the roster, while fitting a team-specific niche that allows him to develop his game at a pace more fitting to his physical stature. He has all the tools, and Boston is a great team for developing them — even if they draw out the process a bit longer than a non-competitor.
4. Phoenix Suns — Jaylen Brown, SG/SF, California
Brown was highly-touted entering Cal, yet wasn’t expected to go quite as high as he ended up going on draft night. The hyper-athletic swingman put up impressive numbers during his one season with the Golden Bears, averaging 14.6 points per contest and showing impressive flashes of athleticism, but was widely regarded as an unfinished product of sorts. His 3-point shot was inconsistent at best (29.4%), and his offensive game was relatively raw in comparison to some of his upper-lottery counterparts.
That ‘unfinished product’ mantra has certainly held true this season, but not necessarily in the manner many expected. Brown has been one of the class’ more productive two-way pieces early on, combining high-level defensive production with an offensive game that has shined in a limited role. There’s still a lot more to add to his game, but the foundation is already in place — and he’s producing at an impressive level as a reserve for a competitive roster as a result.
Already, Brown has shown the types of improvements that are requisite of a rapid developmental curve moving forward. He’s shooting 32.7% from deep — a rare increase over his collegiate numbers — and has fared well as a spot-up threat with the Celtics this season, spacing the floor and attacking off the dribble in straight-line drives.
While he hasn’t expanded his game too far beyond that, his ability to contribute as a slasher and a shooter this early on is incredibly promising for somebody with such pressing offensive concerns coming into the league. His strength already allows him to finish through contact at the basket, while his quickness should evolve into more craftiness as a ball handler down the road.
Defensively, though, is where Brown has been the most impressive. His physique has allowed him to defend NBA forwards at a near-elite level from day one, which is a rarity for a player who turned 20 around the beginning of the season. He moves well laterally, and has the strength needed to defend any position along the perimeter at a high level, while possessing the length needed to switch onto the interior on occasion (6'7'’ with a 7'+ wingspan).
He already projects as a plus defender, and holds the type of two-way upside that’s difficult to pass on in a draft class as thin as this one. The Suns need to find Devin Booker a long-term partner on the wing, and Brown’s defensive talent and budding offensive production would be an idealistic accompaniment.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves — Marquese Chriss, PF, Washington
Human springboard and professional rocket launcher Marquese Chriss was the best pure power forward prospect in last year’s class, bringing the type of lofty potential that’s hard to pass on in a draft highlighted by mediocre talents. His development was — and still is — a few notches behind some of the draft’s more polished assets, but his potential remains notably high as a stretch four in a league that’s conducive to his style of play.
Offensively, Chriss’ potential is obvious. He’s a freakish athlete at 6'11'’, running the floor in long strides and playing above the rim with an abundant sense of ease. He excels in an up-tempo setting, yet can be equally as productive in the pick-and-roll or as a pick-and-pop big man in the halfcourt, boasting a perimeter shooting percentage of 32.8% — a tally that should only get better in time.
There are still some warts in his game, as his inconsistent finishing and questionable decision making can at times cloud his upside-laden flashes on that side of the basketball. He’s still a few years out from reaching his ceiling — wherever that may stand — but, that ceiling appears well worth the gamble considering the early returns we’ve seen this year.
Defensively was where Chriss was pounded most by analysts heading into draft season last year, as his lack of awareness led to an uninspiring freshman campaign in that regard. He got into foul trouble early and often — something that has carried over into this season — and seemed to neutralize his athletic advantage with poor reads and lackluster energy. He was also a shoddy rebounder, something that he has improved upon this season, but that should remain a focal point of his development nonetheless.
An athlete of Chriss’ caliber, though, still holds tremendous promise on the defensive end. He moves well out to the 3-point line and doesn’t take long to get off his feet and make a play at the rim, which should — ideally — translate into shot blocking down the road. As soon as he gets comfortable in rotations and doesn’t get lost on the occasional possession, he has the potential to legitimately flourish on both ends.
The Timberwolves, in this case, would find their long-term frontcourt mate for Karl-Anthony Towns, allowing them to produce an intriguing blend of athleticism and offensive versatility up front. A defensive core consisting of Towns, Chriss and Andrew Wiggins would be far from ideal in the short term, but could provide more palatable returns down the road under a Tom Thibodeau-led regime.
He brings a nice boost of upside to a Timberwolves team in need of a more suitable four man than Gorgui Dieng. We also get to watch Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins and Chriss throw down dunks in the same uniforms. That’s a dunk contest-worthy trio in one starting unit.
6. New Orleans Pelicans — Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma
Hield has looked like one of the draft’s best prospects since being traded to Sacramento in the Boogie Cousins deal, combining his red-hot shooting stroke with a much improved scoring threat off the bounce. If his development continues at the rate it’s currently progressing, he still won’t be Stephen Curry — but he could be an ample contributor in the Kings’ rebuild.
The former Oklahoma standout spent four seasons in college, emerging as a rare senior in the upper echelon of the lottery conversation. Carrying an all-encompassing offensive role for the Sooners last season (usage rate of 30%), Hield was given the green light in virtually every scenario as a scorer. He took plenty of long-range bombs, and proved himself to be highly adept in burning defenders regardless of their pressure.
He shot 45.7% from beyond the arc on 8.7 (yes, 8.7) attempts per game, essentially one-upping Malik Monk before there was a Malik Monk to one-up. He averaged 25 points per contest on top of that, and was — without much debate — the best offensive player to operate at the collegiate level last season.
His professional career got off to a rougher start, though. He trudged through his first few weeks with New Orleans in a shooting slump, shooting a meager 26.5% from deep during the month of November. It’s safe to say he flipped the switch after that. Hield’s outside shooting kicked up to 47.8% percent in December, and he’s currently chugging along at a more-than-solid 45% pace this month with his new team in Sactown.
Hield’s improved shooting has opened up other facets of his game as well. He’s getting into the lane more, utilizing a nice set of step backs and floaters that weren’t relied upon as much during his tenure in Oklahoma. He’s running the pick-and-roll at a high level as well, showcasing a much improved passing touch.
He’s still smoothing out the edges of his game, per se, with an offensive workload that isn’t all that reminiscent of most 6th overall picks, but is showing the type of promise that warranted the consistent hype coming into the draft.
And thus, the Pelicans stick with their original pick here, meaning they can go through a handful of months yielding mixed results before shipping the Steph Curry reincarnate to Sacramento for a multi-time All-Star. Hield’s going to be a good player, and the Pelicans don’t have any reason to change picks here.
7. Denver Nuggets — Thon Maker, C, South Sudan
Maker was nothing more than a late first rounder to me, and I’m starting to feel as if I was very, very wrong in that assessment. The lanky 20-year-old has been heavily limited in his role with Milwaukee this season, but has flashed immense upside nonetheless. He also brings legitimate star potential — something only a handful of players in this class do.
His rail-thin frame makes him a long term project, and that was a given coming in. He never played at a level above prep school, and was more of a clouded mystery than a surefire asset — something he still is, to some degree. There’s no guarantee that Maker pans out. His physical deficiencies could be too much to overcome at the professional level, and his lack of development could be an equally-as-detrimental impediment. But if things do work out, he has the potential to be something special. And something special is worth the proverbial roll of the dice.
When watching Maker’s high school mix tapes — an activity that any reasonable NBA fan should partake in — it’s easy to see where his upside stems from. He’s a legit 7-footer, and couples that with abnormally long arms, a ridiculous motor and mobility that’s borderline unfair. He handles the ball from the perimeter, can nail an off-the-dribble jumper and is a defensive monster in the making (no pun intended).
While that’s obviously not all in his NBA arsenal yet, his fluidity of motion and diverse skill set still remains. He needs to get stronger to maximize his effectiveness as a rim protector — although he’s already blocking Rudy Gobert, (see highlight video above) and his lateral quickness should allow him to stretch onto the perimeter without becoming a weakness.
Offensively, if his jumper translates it’ll become markedly more difficult to stop Maker. He gets bullied by stronger bigs, which is expected at this point, but provides a wealth of offensive potential once his frame — and his skill set — are more finely-tuned. The Bucks took him 10th for a reason, and are approaching his development as a focal point of their future plans. If the Nuggets did the same thing with the number 7 pick, he and Nikola Jokic could become the most entertaining frontcourt duo in the league.
It’s like combining Harry Potter with some form of superhero. A passing wizard and a physical anomaly, tailor-made to wreak endless havoc upon the basketball landscape.
8. Phoenix Suns — Skal Labissière, C, Kentucky
Skal was the number two recruit coming out of high school, slotted behind Ben Simmons and in front of Brandon Ingram. He ended up going 28th on draft night, largely due to an incredibly underwhelming run at Kentucky.
In all fairness, Labissiere’s collegiate run was nothing short of ugly. He struggled with physicality around the basket, and showcased a lack of awareness that made him painful to watch on both ends at times. He simply couldn’t keep up, and that’s a concerning trend for a player who would be upping the level of competition even further upon entering the NBA.
He was still viewed by many as a lottery talent, though. His upside as an athletic 7-footer with the semblances of a versatile offensive game was enough to make some overlook his off year in a deep U.K. frontcourt. Although his lack of production inevitably plummeted his stock come draft night. If we were re-drafting now, that likely wouldn’t be the case.
After operating in limited fashion all season long — with extensive D-League time in the mix — Labissiere has been one of the more obvious beneficiaries of DeMarcus Cousins’ departure from Sacrmento. He’s still raw in virtually every facet, but has displayed a great motor in combination with quality touch on the offensive end.
He can still get a bit sporadic at times, throwing up an awkward shot around the rim or letting a jumper fly in ill-advised fashion, but all the tools are in place. He’s finishing better around the basket than he did in college, and that all culminated with a 32-point outing against Phoenix (see above).
If his jumper — both from mid-range and out to the 3-point line — can get better in time, that extends Labissiere’s potential even further. He has the offensive fluidity needed to become a reliable weapon in the coming years, and provides the defensive upside to back that up.
The Suns would, in this case, grab their big man of the future, taking on a project that they’d be willing to wait on. Their lack of competitiveness means they could give Labissiere extensive playing time to work through the quirks in his game, while Tyson Chandler is an ideal mentor for a player of Skal’s ilk.
He’d be the focal point of a frontcourt that’s accompanied by a talented backcourt, and could prove to be a strong investment for the Suns down the road.
9. Toronto Raptors — Dragan Bender, PF/C, Croatia
Bender’s was the hottest of international commodities in last year’s class, boasting a fluid 3-point stroke and excellent athleticism that, at 7'1'’, had significant appeal amongst NBA scouts. The Croatian forward was viewed as a project physically, but provided the type of skill set that could feasibly yield production in some capacity early on. The assessment was fairly sound.
Despite his season coming to an early end due to ankle surgery, Bender’s campaign was largely characterized by flashes. He didn’t sustain a consistent role, operating behind the likes of Chriss, Tyson Chandler, and Alex Len in the rotation, but did show glimpses of what made him such a highly-touted prospect when he found time on the floor.
Bender’s skill level is highly advanced for a player of his age, as most 19-year-old bigs lack the offensive polish he brings to the table at such a young age. While his lack of strength limited his ability to finish around the basket, he did show great mobility in the frontcourt. He ran the floor well, and was a reliable source of trailing 3-point shots in transition as a result. He also showed sound off-ball movement at times, making solid cuts to the rim and keeping his defender engaged outside the interior.
When combining that with his pick-and-pop prowess — as well as some upside off the dribble when attacking closeouts — Bender’s offensive game should round out nicely in time.
Defensively, Bender has some flaws, but shouldn’t be viewed as entirely inept. His length and quickness around the rim allows him to make strong rotations and block shots, while he has the lateral mobility needed to slide around the perimeter without becoming a liability.
He’ll continue to take time physically, and he’s likely a couple years out from consistent production on a nightly basis, but the Raptors provide a near-ideal rotation in which he can develop. They’re a competitive roster, meaning they’re capable of bringing him along slowly while not rushing him into competition he’s not yet ready for physically.
Bender fits the archetype of a modern NBA big in virtually every facet, and is the type of talent that — in this sort of a draft — is a no-brainer at this stage.
10. Milwaukee Bucks — Kris Dunn, PG, Providence
Coming into the season, Dunn’s upside was considered to be among the highest in this year’s class. His excellent physical tools, quick first step and elite two-way production led some to dub him the best prospect outside of Simmons and Ingram, while others lauded him as the most NBA-ready player in a draft filled with question marks. As it turns out, Dunn is one of those question marks.
The former Providence stud still has some very real promise — there’s no denying that — but his struggles are still concerning. He was given the freedom to carry a pretty solid load in reserve behind Ricky Rubio, yet hasn’t been able to perform up to par when gifted such responsibility. He also hasn’t shown much when his role has been more concise, leaving some notable grey areas in determining just how far behind the 23-year-old is in regards to his projected developmental curve.
Dunn has shown plenty of signs on both ends, combining brief scoring outbursts with heady defensive plays that still point to some looming upside down the road. He has the ability to get hot at any given moment, it’s just a matter of sustaining that to some extent in the coming years.
His outside shooting is what will drive such improvements, as his current percentage (30.3) is far below the standards set by the league’s better point guards. If he can’t keep the defense honest with a viable outside shot, it takes away some of his options driving to the basket — which is by far the strongest aspect of his game.
Offensively, his shifty ball handling and impressive athletic tools are enough to carve out some sizable upside. He gets into the teeth of the defense consistently, and boasts an arsenal of floaters and pull-up jumpers that should eventually translate into production. Combine that with a few less turnovers when facilitating the ball, and Dunn’s offensive game could develop into a legitimate cog for any rotation.
Defensively, Dunn’s size is a massive asset. He can guard both backcourt positions at a high level, and does a nice job of playing the passing lanes and forcing turnovers when positioned to do so. As he continues to improve his feel for the game on that end, he should become — at the very least — a strong sixth man on both ends of the floor.
The Bucks are in need of point guard depth here, with Matthew Dellavedova being their only other option. They’d have an opportunity to grab current-Buck Malcolm Brogdon — who’s currently a top 3 Rookie of the Year candidate — but Dunn’s ceiling is enough to swing Milwaukee in a different direction. They’ll test his pairing with Giannis Antetokounmpo and add another impressive defensive asset to a team that excels on that end.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder — Malcolm Brogdon, PG, Virginia
Speaking of Malcolm Brogdon, his ascension this year is enough to push him into the lottery. In a number of ways, this ties back to that O’Connor quote I mentioned earlier — this is a “role players rookie class,” and Brogdon has been the best role player to date.
Brogdon won’t be a star, and his upside certainly doesn’t eclipse that of many — if any — players in this re-draft. But he’s already a solid player, and should continue to be a solid player for an extended period of time. In a draft with such a limited number of certainties — which is a fallacy in and of itself — bringing on somebody whose production is steadfast in the manner that Brogdon’s has been is an incredibly valuable asset.
He has contributed in a handful of ways this season for Milwaukee, switching between the starting and reserve role with Matthew Dellavedova throughout the campaign. His shooting has translated nicely from the college level (40.6%), while his intelligence allows him to fill his specified role on the floor at an extremely high level. He makes the extra pass, doesn’t force anything with the ball in his hands, and avoids mistakes like few other rookies can. He plays like a veteran, and that’s what makes him so appealing this early in his career.
Brogdon’s defensive prowess is another plus, as his 6'5'’ frame and solid build allows him to defend either guard spot with success. He defensive pedigree coming out of college was his most impressive attribute, and it’s something that he has made useful from day one in the pros.
Oklahoma City — getting this pick via the Serge Ibaka trade during the preseason — has a fairly sizable void in their backcourt, and one that Brogdon’s resume fills nicely. Russell Westbrook is the undisputed focal point offensively, but their stark lack of a quality backup — whether that be Cameron Payne (who’s now in Chicago), Semaj Christon or Norris Cole — has hurt them at times when Russ is off the floor.
Slotting in Brogdon for spurts behind Russ gives Billy Donovan somebody he can rely on to keep the offense afloat while also stabilizing their defense to some extent in the second unit. He could also spend ample time sharing the floor with Westbrook, as the majority of Brogdon’s perimeter scoring has come via spot-ups this season. He fills an immediate role while giving Oklahoma City somebody who can contribute to winning basketball for several years moving forward. That’s tough to pass on.
12. Atlanta Hawks — Domantas Sabonis, PF, Gonzaga
Sabonis plays into that “role players draft” narrative as well. His ceiling is limited by substandard athletic tools, but his overarching skill set gives him a legitimate niche in most NBA rotations — and one that he can contribute in right away.
Prior to Taj Gibson’s arrival in OKC, Sabonis was one of only a handful of rookies getting legitimate starting minutes — and the only one who was doing so on a fringe contender, to boot. His combination of high I.Q. offensive play and budding outside shooting made him a versatile cog to work in alongside Russell Westbrook’s dynamic playmaking, while his defensive holes were far less pronounced than many thought coming in.
On the offensive side of the ball, Sabonis personifies the term ‘glue guy’. He makes smart passes from the post, while operating well in both the pick-and-roll and the pick-and-pop. His 3-point shooting (31.7%) hasn’t become fully reliable yet, but is trending rapidly in the right direction. And, while he’s not overtly quick, he does have the body control and fluidity needed to attack closeouts and find his spots from mid-range or attack the basket
Sabonis’ defense isn’t great, but it’s far from bad. He does a nice job of positioning himself well in rotations and doesn’t get drawn into careless fouls like some other rookies are prone to do. His lack of length is going to be a hindrance moving forward, but he’s skilled enough to fit within a team’s defensive scheme without being an overly-exploitable piece. \
As a whole, Sabonis’ game is an ideal fit for Mike Budenholezer’s club in Atlanta. His intellectual, team-first approach fits the mold of the Hawks’ system, where ball movement and floor spacing have become — for the most part — the norm. The Hawks have notably little depth in the frontcourt this season, with the majority of the depth they do have is slated to enter free agency this coming offseason. Sabonis gives them a long-term cog to some extent — whether as a sixth man or the eventual heir to Paul Millsap — as well as someone who has proven himself to be a stable producer.
The Hawks are in a rough spot as a team right now, with their best players nearing the end of their prime and their younger talents struggling to take the next step. It’s important for them to start building around the culture and the system that brought them such proficient success a few years ago, and pieces like Sabonis fit that mold.
13. Sacramento Kings — Juancho Hernangomez, SF/PF, Spain
At 6'9'’ with solid athletic tools, Hernangomez — in the limited playing time he has seen this season — is already beginning to look like a mid-first round steal for the Nuggets. He has the ability to play both forward spots at a high level depending on the scenario, and has showcased a gritty defensive presence that has upped his stock from where it stood coming in.
For the most part, Juancho’s role this season has revolved around spot-up shooting on the offensive end — a small but highly necessary aspect of virtually every NBA offense. He moves well off the ball for his size, and has the length needed to shoot over closeouts and the explosiveness needed to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim when needed.
Hernangomez was one of the more intriguing international prospects in last year’s class, with polish being the critique of choice when dubbing him a draft-and-stash more so than an NBA-ready piece. As SI.com’s Draft Grades put it, he was still a bit “rough around the edges” to most.
And, while there’s still room to grow, his polish this season has been an impressive development. His defensive technique has improved to match his energy level, while his shooting has become a staple of his game, rather than a streaky outlier like it was a couple years back.
In a league driven by positional flexibility, Hernangomez’s skill set is precisely what teams are looking for, as he brings plenty of upside as a stretch four in smaller rotations. The Kings have a blank slate at the moment, and notably little in the form of power forwards on top of that. Hernangomez could be a nice step in the right direction.
He gives Sacramento a reliable contributor who can play legitimate minutes from day one, while providing versatility moving forward as they put more adequate pieces elsewhere in the rotation. Juancho went 15th on draft night, but probably could’ve slid up a few more spots without being over-hyped.
14. Chicago Bulls — Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot, SG/SF, France
Slotting Luwawu as my 8th best prospect might have been a bit high, but his performance has vindicated the praise regardless. Despite not putting up any awe-inspiring numbers — 5.1 points per game, 2 rebounds — TLC has been a far more productive asset than many expected in year one, showing excellent instincts offensively and strong defensive fundamentals on a nightly basis.
At 6'6'’ with a 7' wingspan, Luwawu’s physical tools were always the main source of intrigue in regards to his draft stock. He covers multiple positions at a high level on the perimeter, and was an impressive transition scorer for a Mega Leks squad that thrives in an up-tempo attack. He still doesn’t create much of his own offense off the dribble, but has shown immense promise in the halfcourt this season, both as a spot-up scorer and a cutter. That’s one aspect of his game that was knocked rather consistently coming in.
The Sixers have given Luwawu some decent spurts of playing time, in which he has looked far more experienced than some of the other prospects gracing this year’s class. The 21-year-old moves well off the ball, running around screens and freeing up space on the perimeter as a result. He’s also a heady slasher, making strong backdoor cuts and often finding himself open for a nice dish from T.J. McConnell around the hoop. He keeps in constant motion offensively, and has shown a feel for the game that bodes well for future success.
Defensively, Luwawu’s length translates well with his high energy play. He gets into the passing lanes on a regular basis and does a nice job of playing irritant against some of the league’s upper-level perimeter talents, even when he’s outmatched physically.
With the Bulls in desperate need of shooting, defense and offensive competence, Luwawu makes quite a bit of sense here. Dwyane Wade won’t be a source of production for much longer and Jimmy Butler’s future remains uncertain to the highest degree. They could benefit from some stability on the perimeter, and that’s what TLC brings.
Honorable Mentions: Dejounte Murray, Ante Žižić, Ivica Zubac, Guerschon Yabusele, Caris LeVert, Tyler Ulis, Denzel Valentine
