4-on-4: Sixteen Roundtable
This week the 4-on-4 panel discuss the Most Valuable Player Award, how trade deadline assets have panned out and more.
Four staff members from 16 Wins A Ring answering four NBA related questions — welcome to the Sixteen Roundtable.
Imagine the Sixteen Roundtable as your weekly dose of hot takes, hypotheticals, and compelling questions being answered by a collaboration of hoop junkies from 16 Wins A Ring. The Roundtable will run every Sunday, featuring new questions as well as new voices. Make sure to give each of our staff members for this week’s edition a follow!
Warren Shaw: Staff Writer & Co-Host of The Baseline Podcast (@ShawSportsNBA)
Adam Howes: Staff Writer (@Howsito)
Tamberlyn Richardson: Staff Editor, Writer & Host of TTOTambz podcast (@TTOTambz)
Serge Leshchuk: Staff Writer (@Sergetacular)
Edition #02
- Which MVP candidate is picking up the most traction and separating themselves from the pack as we approach the home stretch of the season?
Warren: I don’t know that the race has widened at all between James Harden and Russell Westbrook. It’s an odd situation because Harden could have arguably won two years ago, but the award went to Steph Curry who was on the best team. Harden did more with less that year and now Westbrook is in a similar situation. The difference is Harden’s team isn’t the best team in the league this year — but they are up there. This will come down to a matter of preference from the voters. Ironically the gap between third and fourth might have widened as Kawhi Leonard has passed LeBron James by most people’s account.
Adam: From my observations of late I think the general consensus would be James “big game” Harden has the edge over Russell Westbrook, but Kawhi Leonard has been beyond impressive of late. The Spurs are 9–1 over their last ten games under his leadership, if he can continue to make waves and propel the Spurs ahead of the Warriors for the best record in the league, well…what more is left to say? This would be a whole lot easier if we could have a three way tie for the award.
Tamberlyn: Logically LeBron James will always be in the mix, but a 26th ranked defense since the All-Star Break isn’t going to add credibility to his argument. The third party in the mix is Kawhi Leonard who ironically took a mere six seconds to remind pundits why this quiet assassin deserves to be in the conversation.
Understandably the true race is between Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Both stars improved their games this season, albeit under completely different circumstances. Westbrook took over a decimated squad given Kevin Durant’s departure coupled with the trade of Serge Ibaka. Conversely, Harden was gifted with the offensive savant Mike D’Antoni and surrounded by shooters. For Harden, these changes produced per game increases of 6.9 points, 3.1 rebounds and doubled his assists (5.6 to 11.2).
Ultimately, choosing an MVP is subjective. Harden holds the win edge, Westbrook the stat edge. That said, my preference leans heavily toward Westbrook given two overwhelming factors — comparison of the three games played against each other and the discrepancy of the talent pool surrounding them.
3-game average vs. each other:
Harden: 20.0 points, 12.3 assists, 6 rebounds, 29.0% FG%, and 21.7% 3P%
Westbrook: 35.3 points, 8 assists, 8.3 rebounds, 41.7% FG%, and 38.5% 3P%
Talent Pool: Including Harden the Rockets have ten players who shoot over 31.3% from three. Of those, two shoot over 40%, eight shoot over 35% and six have attempted 170 or more threes. In contrast, Westbrook has five players who shoot over 35% from deep, but two of those players have taken three cumulative attempts.
Let that resonate for a second.
Serge: I don’t know. I plead the fifth. This is unprecedented. Have we ever had a season like this? On one hand we have a guy averaging a triple double, LeBron, Chuthulu… this race is absurd because no matter who we give it too it’s going to feel like we’re taking away from others. I’m against participation trophies as a rule but we need one this year.
I have a slight feeling it might be Kawhi off the strength of second and third place votes. Because the first place is going to be so split. He’s the most two way player here, he’s equally valuable on offense and on defense when he thinks to himself “I’m going to make basketball just fun for the best player on the other team for the next 48.” No one had the two way impact he does and no team falls apart faster without him (OKC may be bad first, but once players remember what a ball feels like).
P.S. My heart wants Russ. My id. My irrational mind. But I also want to see what happens to the “I got the nuclear codes” Russ next season if he doesn’t get it. He may cure cancer.
2. Larry Sanders recently made his return to the NBA agreeing to a deal with the Cavaliers. What kind of role will he have in Cleveland? What are your expectations from him on this Cavs team?
Warren: Larry Sanders isn’t a difference maker for Cleveland as there are too many variables to consider in his return. His reputation as a rebounder and rim protector won’t be put to the test in the spot minutes he’s most likely to receive. His addition seems cosmetic and very much like in an emergency break glass type of thing. I’m rooting for him though and hope that this is a step in the right direction for both his personal life and career.
Adam: Ugh. This hurts to answer this question due to my disdain for the rain making tendency of moneybags Dan Gilbert, but i digress. I expect Sanders to fill the void caused by the season ending injury to Andrew Bogut. If he’s able to get in game shape prior to the playoffs and bond with the team as well as Derrick Williams has, he’ll be yet another boon for the Cashaliers and a notch on the wall for GM David Griffin.
Tamberlyn: If we are to believe the rumors, Sanders arrived to various team workouts very out of shape. Odds are he’ll spend a major stint with Cleveland’s D-League affiliate the Canton Charge. There he’ll learn the system while simultaneously getting in game shape. With Kevin Love back, the Sanders acquisition is primarily tied to the postseason. He’ll be utilized in a similar capacity as Timofey Mozgov was in the 2016 post season (13 appearances, 76 minutes). Primarily to replace Tristan Thompson when he rests and to address paint dominant centers; think Jonas Valanciunas, Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard and Hassan Whiteside. Ultimately Sanders is more of an insurance policy than a game changer, barring injury or foul trouble to Thompson or Love.
Serge: Capable of playing basketball? Can run for 20 minutes? I don’t know where the benchmark is for someone who hasn’t played a meaningful moment of a sport for a few years and has had multiple ventures. But, then again, Jordan Crawford is out here balling out like he’s Jamal so it’s hard to predict. I think if he can give them between 15–20 per game and rim protection to rest Tristan that’s all I can reasonably expect. Eight rebounds, two blocks and one close-line back screen on Draymond Green and I’m calling this a success.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo seems to be the favorite to win the Most Improved Player award this year. However, Otto Porter has been right on his tail and Dion Waiters is making a late push as well. Can Porter or Waiters snatch the MIP award away from Giannis? Does anyone else have a case over these three?
Warren: I’ve always loved the debate about the Most Improved Player. Sometimes guys really do take a leap. In other cases, it’s simply about getting more minutes leading to greater production. Antetokounmpo ran away and hid with this award early on and there isn’t a chance that any player can steal it from him. Porter more so than Waiters deserves consideration as he’s been more consistent — nobody saw him as a leader in three-point percentage this year. Honorable mention goes to guys like Harrison Barnes and Avery Bradley. Jabari Paker and Zach LaVine would have gotten some love if it weren’t for their injuries.
Adam: First, let me say I’m writing this while holidaying on Waiters island. The takes are hot, the beer cold. So on that note, will Dion or Otto surpass Giannis for the hardware? I think not. Despite Porter’s good standing from a team record perspective and Dion being one of the season’s biggest turnarounds, neither of them dominates their team’s statistical categories the way Greece’s favorite son does. Advantage, Giannis.
Tamberlyn: Dion Waiters definitely gets mention here. Flipping the 11–30 season start to the Heat’s current 23–5 run has been accomplished via a team wide effort. From my perspective the job Eric Spoelstra has done to get two prior malcontents (Waiters, Whiteside) and a young core to work in tandem is the bigger story.
Though there are other candidates, it’s impossible to ignore what Giannis Antetokounmpo has achieved. Aside from career highs in every statistical category the Greek Freak leads his team in free throw attempts/makes, defensive/total rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and points. Moreover, Antetokounmpo accomplished this with Kris Middleton missing the first 43 games and Jabari Parker the last 25.
Serge: I think we need to flip the criteria for Most Improved Player award. Mostly because we knew Giannis was going to get this good the moment he emerged unharmed from that radioactive toxic spill off the coast of Greece. It sucks that part of his progress is due to a workload facilitated by injuries to key teammates, but watching Giannis this season was pretty much like watching a caterpillar evolve into a butterfly, except instead of a butterfly it’s a rampaging pre-historic pterodactyl hybrid with the wingspan of a small state.
I like Otto Porter as a sneaky option mostly because he’s out here shooting the lights out like vintage Steph Curry if not better. Maybe someone told him if he misses a catch and shoot three, all time and space will collapse on itself. My dark horse in this race is Nicola Jokic though. He has developed into a true leader on this Nuggets unit and if Denver makes the playoffs and the Bucks don’t… I think it’s a bigger leap and facilitated by a more improved player. What I’m saying is Giannis is basically stayed on par with his development into a regulated weapon of mass destruction while Jokic pushed the envelope on what we expected him to do and introduced a brand new facet of his game as Point Center at Law. Also, this just occurred to me. Why are we all forgetting that Harrison Barnes exists? Why is he not in the conversation?
4. Quite a few guys that were moved at the trade deadline are performing well with their new teams. Players such as Jusuf Nurkic, Lou Williams, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Nerlins Noel. Which player is having the biggest impact with their new team?
Warren: Nurkic probably has had the most impact on his new team as he’s giving the Blazers a legitimate threat to score inside. The Blazers have looked better with him in the lineup, but it might be too little too late. Bogdanovic has been immense for the Wizards spelling Beal and Porter, but should really help in the playoffs. I think the same game goes for Williams on the Rockets. Noel’s impact probably won’t truly be felt until next year, but he’s happy to be out of Philly where he can be utilized correctly in Carlisle’s system.
Adam: From the sample size I’ve seen, I’d have to say Nurkic. As Eric Spyropoulos pointed out in his recent piece, Nurkic has the Blazers firing on all cylinders since his arrival in Rose City. If the Blazers can keep the Mavs at bay and get the jump on the Nuggets for the 8 seed, the Blazers will be the clear winner of that trade and Nurkic’s impact felt the most of those four players traded.
Tamberlyn: Isolating the four players mentioned:
Clearly the Blazers needed to shore up frontcourt deficiencies; Dallas craved help in any form, while Washington was desperate to add reserve depth. Houston didn’t have perimeter scoring gaps, rather the move was dictated by a desire to shed a highly ineffective Brewer from the roster.
Diving into post trade statistics: Portland improved from 13th to 5th offensively, with a minor uptick on defense. The Mavericks dropped six positions offensively, but have vaulted from 17th to 8th defensively. However, the Mavericks shift can’t simply be isolated to Noel, as new backcourt starters Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell have played a factor. Meanwhile, the Rockets have essentially remained status quo. If there was an early trade loser the Wizards in my opinion get the nod. Despite the three-point shooting of Bogdanovic, the Wizards have regressed from ninth to 27th defensively since his arrival.
Again, totally subjective, but my trade deadline winners are the Thunder and Raptors whose additions have produced immediate dividends. OKC wanted Westbrook to have more offensive options and the former Bulls (Gibson, McDermott) appear to have provided that, given the Thunder’s leap from 21st to 6th.
Similarly, the loss of Lowry erased Toronto’s best two-way player. Yet, arguably the Raptors leap from 16th to 5th defensively via the additions of Ibaka and Tucker may be the biggest advantage gained on the board. This season top ten defenses are averaging 103.5 points per 100 possessions. Punctuating Toronto’s success is the opponent average score in five of their seven post break victories is 85.6 points and their overall opponent average since acquiring Ibaka and Tucker is 98.1 point per game.
Serge: Depends on whether or not Portland make the playoffs. Washington are always going to live and die by their starting five + Kelly Oubre, as much as I like Bojan. The rest of the teams, it’s really up in the air between Nurkic and Noel. Portland’s entire problem was the fact that they missed a presence inside so they went out and hired a mercenary. Fun fact, the biggest downside on Nurk’s scouting report was that “he can be mean to people.” The dude is basically a real life bully. That’s his bad quality. He says bad things. Oh, and he once wrestled a bear (that last one may not be a 100% factual, but you believed me). If Portland makes the playoffs and hangs with either the Warriors (lol) or the Spurs (double-lol) Nurk is it hands-down. None of those teams are spoiling the annual Golden State — Cleveland Party, Houston with Lou Williams might.
Now that the Rockets have literally all the shooters and an additional off-the dribble (two steps to the left, cross, step back, shoot) threat, the sky is the limit. Having Lou literally puts 50 three point attempts per game in play every. single. game. He pushes the Houston Rockets offense from being on cocaine to being on meth and chasing it with a beer. Lou Williams legitimately gives Houston a chance at the Finals.
