76ers’ Dario Saric Is Taking Control of NBA Rookie of the Year Race
Joel Embiid was remarkable in his 31 games, but Dario Saric has taken over for the Philadelphia 76ers as the NBA’s leading Rookie of the Year candidate.
The 2016–17 NBA Rookie of the Year race is such a shame. Joel Embiid should be the winner. Deep down, everyone wants him to be. The meniscus tear in his left knee that officially ruled him out for the rest of the season on March 1 (he hasn’t played since January 27) was painful news for all, spelling the end to every voter writing down his name as their choice when the time comes.
He was dominant at both ends of the floor in ways that rookies shouldn’t be and vastly better than his fellow first-year nominees. It’s for that reason that some will argue he should be an anomaly and win regardless. Rookie of the Years do not win when they only play 31 games, though, skip back-to-backs, and finish their debut season with 786 total minutes. The sample size is too small for a full-season award.
Just take a look at this chart of recent winners, courtesy of 16’s own Preston Mott:
So even though Saric was lost in Embiid’s massive 7'2" shadow, he’s still put together a strong season and has taken off in recent weeks.
Saric still had a bunch of strong outings with 15+ points while Embiid was playing, frequently showing his playmaking flare. But in the time since Embiid’s latest setback, everything about Saric’s game has been heightened, from his control as the quarterback in transition to his silky approach on the court, whether he’s burying a three or dropping bounce passes to cutters. Without much vertical explosiveness in his legs, everything about Saric revolves around skill, enabling him to space the floor and handle the ball in a far more prominent role without Embiid around.
Among all rookies who’ve played at least 20 games this season (including Embiid), Saric ranks second in points (12.4), third in rebounds (6.3), seventh in assists (2.2) and third in threes (89). All those basic standings are impressive for a power forward, especially one who shared the floor with Embiid and didn’t have the ball as much or so many shots before.
Saric has blown the (weak) competition out of the water since getting more of the spotlight after Embiid went down again since January 29, too, leading all rookies by a mile in points (17.7 to Ferrell’s second-place 12.3), while ranking second in rebounds (7.3) and fourth in assists (3.4).
Besides Embiid and Malcolm Brogdon, who’s really stood out? Yogi Ferrell obviously got started far too late in the season with the Dallas Mavericks and was never a candidate, and, much to Vivek Ranadive’s disappointment, Buddy Hield isn’t actually Stephen Curry 2.0. Other than Saric, the only one with much of a case is Brogdon.
Saric’s production says a lot about how good he is already and his basic averages will be essential in him sealing the deal and winning the award. Especially as he’s put up 20.3/8/3.8 over the last 16 games. After all, that’s what most voters generally focus on. However, looking into the range of things he can do on the court is what separates him even more from other rookies.
He’s an interesting mix of playmaking and scoring, from nifty drives into the lane, floaters when attacking closeouts or catch-and-shoot threes. The fact his efficiency has risen since Embiid’s injury helps a lot, too, as Saric’s 20.3-point average over the last 16 games has come with 48.4 percent shooting and a 32.6 percent stroke from deep; he’s below average from three, but with 1.7 makes a night it’s a level of production and threat that any team would love to have in a rookie big man.
Saric being comfortable when looking for his own shot will be hugely valuable going forward when Embiid is back and (hopefully) healthy, as not everything can run through The Process himself all the time. Take this three just before the third quarter buzzer against the Portland Trail Blazers on March 9, for example. Saric shifts around the defense, waits for space, backs up, and fires from a good step beyond the arc:
Or here, where Saric takes a couple of dribbles to gauge how JaVale McGee would pressure him defensively, before backing up and firing a three with a little more breathing room:
His craftiness and soft touch helps make up for a lack of elite speed when he’s scoring, too. You can see how comfortable he is here protecting and handling the ball to drive down a busy lane between David West and Matt Barnes, helping his impressive 50.9 field goal percentage on drives this season:
Then, there’s how much Saric brings to the table as a passer.
Soon after that three over McGee in the 76ers’ Tuesday night game, Saric showed the touch he has on his passes as well, utilizing a mismatch of Stephen Curry switching onto Richaun Holmes as he lofted a pass over the Warriors’ defense to set up an easy dunk:
That’s just easy stuff, though. This no-look, behind-the-back dime from early March was brilliant, giving Jahlil Okafor the opportunity for an easy finish after Saric had already pulled away the defense’s attention as he drove baseline, all while knowing exactly where Okafor would be:
Even something more simple like this assist from Tuesday’s game shows Saric’s awareness. Not all players would jump into a layup motion here, but Saric does so to get Shaun Livingston off the floor, which then leaves the rim more exposed for Okafor to lay the ball in after receiving an easy dump off pass:
Since January 29 after Embiid’s last game, Saric has climbed all the way to 23rd among all forwards (playing at least 20 minutes per game) in assist percentage at 19.4, a drastic increase from 58th before that date at 11.4. Good things can happen when the ball is in his hands. And whether he’s getting fancy or simply delivering passes through small windows in the defense to cutters at just the right time, Saric has shown serious skill. As he continues to develop and hopefully gets more help around him, the turnovers will likely drop as well (2.9 in his last 16 games is fairly high).
The latest statement in Saric’s ROY push was a 25-point, 7-rebound, 6-assist, 3-steal, 2-block performance on Tuesday night that allowed this ragtag, Embiid-less 76ers team to almost beat the Warriors in Golden State, only falling 106–104. A few key shots down the stretch showed how good Saric is already, leading the way with little help around him:
Of course, we can’t allow recency bias to disregard how good Brogdon has been. He’s been a valuable role player for the Bucks, giving them 25.9 better-than-rookie minutes a night with 10 points and 4.4 assists to show for it, not to mention a 42.2 percent three-point shot and a hold on the game that goes beyond the numbers you’ll see.
However, Brogdon hasn’t consistently shouldered the kind of load that Saric has over recent weeks. Saric has been the go-to guy, and it’s not like he was having a bad rookie season by any means before Embiid’s injury either; that’s something that can’t be forgotten here. It’s just the way in which he’s thrived with a higher usage after Embiid went down and has still delivered at a consistent, efficient rate that warrants such praise and helps his case.
Ultimately, when considering the options for everyone, you can go a few ways with your Rookie of the Year choice: pick Embiid anyway because he was way too awesome, pick Brogdon for an unexpected amount of positive impact and efficiency, or do the right thing and pick Saric for being the only one of the three to combine heavy usage and success with a full season of play.
Judging by how Saric has played over the last few weeks, it looks like he’s done everything necessary to lock up the votes he’ll need to win. And even though this season will always be marked with an asterisk as the year that Embiid got injured early, Saric is earning it regardless.
All statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
