Andre Roberson’s Year: Validation & Overdue Credit, But Doubts Remain
His defensive talents are now recognized, but Andre Roberson’s issues haunt him on offense. So what’s his price tag this summer?
Andre Roberson is the ultimate current NBA enigma — how do you quantify on court value in the defensive spectrum? How much do we balance defensive production against offense in a modern NBA where versatility and the ability to lockdown opponents is forever valuable. Particularly in a league where officiating trends and the state of the league overall push towards favoring scorers.
What is that defense worth, though? If an All-World defender can lockdown a star opponent, that’s hard to find. Almost impossible at times. That being said, how much will that player make it count on the other end of the floor?
This is why Kawhi Leonard is the lovechild of today’s league. He’ll lock you down defensively, and drop thirty on any given night on offense. The two-way player is a false term; every player in the NBA plays both ends, the skill level just varies. It is that effectiveness at both ends though that wins titles. The Warriors are built on not only an otherworldly offense, but a defense that turns the notch past eleven to torture their rivals into humiliating submission. Playing two ways might be the only way.
The result means Andre Roberson is somewhat polarizing. He’s a defensive lynchpin and as a result one of the few perimeter players a defense’s foundations can legitimately be built upon. His entire career in the NBA is an array of ferocious rebounding, fighting through screens and pestering defense.
Sam Presti and the Oklahoma City acquired him for exactly that purpose, when they traded for him on draft night after the Minnesota Timberwolves selected him with the 26th overall pick. They had Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the offense spoke for itself. They needed a lockdown defender, and they got it.
Roberson’s flaws always apparent, they became more pronounced than ever when Durant bolted for the Bay last summer. He slotted into his former teammates starting Small Forward role, more or less the least envied shoes to step into in 2016–17.
It wasn’t a disaster, but replacing the most efficient 30-point per game scorer in NBA history with a player who struggles with most aspects of shooting was always going to look less than ideal.
6.6 points per game, on 46 percent shooting. A very lousy 25 percent from three, while he struggled more than ever from the free throw line hitting only 42 percent of his attempts. He spent more time than ever there, and it sent his percentages south.
It’s exactly what makes Roberson’s value so hard to quantify. He has a skill set that few players can match defensively, but not many players lack such an independent offensive arsenal. He relies on a variety of backdoor cuts, slashes to the basket and well timed catches from Russell Westbrook passes to get his points inside the perimeter. From deep it’s anyone’s guess what happens when his shots go up.
Defensively though, there aren’t many better in the game. Roberson has outstanding lateral movement and quickness, smart hands, and an ability to cover players both bigger or smaller than him. He can defend comfortably positions one through four, and has done so this season. Though he spent 88 percent of his minutes playing as the Thunder’s Small Forward, he would spend entire stretches of games in various defensive assignments on primary ball handlers as well as elite wings.
The Thunder’s game plan much of the season revolved around letting Russell Westbrook work his magic offensively and the rest of the team work around that. Much like late in games where Oklahoma City would lock down defensively and betting on their leader to make plays on offense, it would actually mirror a lot of what they would do for the entire 48 minutes.
Billy Donovan’s awareness of the Thunder’s struggle in the half court meant Oklahoma City’s ability to score was actually built on their defense. On a team with a lack of spacing, an obvious need was to get out in transition by forcing missed shots and live ball turnovers.
Roberson’s fast hands and spacial awareness create open floor opportunities for the Thunder. Because he spends a lot of time at the top of the floor defending the premier ball handler, it can mean easy buckets when he can create loose balls. At times, Oklahoma City’s sometimes struggling offense needs all the free points it can get.
Roberson’s overall defensive prowess means him slotting into handling some of Durant’s responsibilities on that end. It has meant taking on bigger bodied defenders, more versatile assignments and it brought out the best in his play.
Here are the list of perimeter players who can match the Thunder’s star defender in block percentage, steal percentage, defensive win shares and defensive box plus minus: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Draymond Green and James Johnson. His expertise on the less heralded end of the floor rivals any wing in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion:
There’s undoubted proof that advanced metrics are a partially flawed science, but large sample sizes still show that they can reveal trends such as the fact two undisputedly elite defenders show up on the list above. These are players with extraordinary wingspans and defensive aptitude, with the ability to lock up the best scorers and playmakers the NBA has to offer. Ironically enough, Leonard and Antetokounmpo were two of Roberson’s biggest victims this season.
Kevin Durant and DeMar DeRozan gave Roberson trouble but he flourished against and tore apart the likes of James Harden, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and more. Playmakers who tend to have the ball in their hands longer on plays tend to help Roberson lock them up, rather than those who keep the ball moving or scorers get shots off quickly.
If you can’t get the ball on the move against Roberson and allow him to get set against you, it’s over. He is excellent at getting his feet in the right position, allowing him to slide from side to side or prevent his man from getting past him.
Players like DeRozan, Durant or Klay Thompson find success at times because their offensive systems get them getting the ball curling around screens or simply on the move attempting to get space from Roberson. There aren’t many ways to get free against Roberson, but that can be one tactic.
Catching the ball at the top of the key against him is not a smart tactic, even for a freak like Leonard. Creating separation isn’t just tough, it’s like searching for water in the desert.
Roberson’s underrated skill has been his evolution as a quarterback for the Thunder. His communication is excellent on defensive possessions and as a young team Oklahoma City need guidance on rotations and assignments on defense. One of his fun little tricks is lulling attackers into a false sense of not being caught on the attack to the rim, but out of nowhere Roberson will send his opponent’s shot packing.
He is the perfect Sam Presti type of defender. Long, smart and athletic. He makes terrifically athletic blocks look almost standardized.
The unfortunate downside of Roberson’s move into the front court is it’s implication on his All-Defensive candidacy. He will not be in Defensive Player of the Year discussion (for now?), but he’s also not dislodging Leonard or Draymond Green from their forward spots.
Ballots this season did not allow him to be slotted in as a guard, so it leaves one of the two second team forward picks if he wants to be rewarded for an outstanding season. He might still get that, but that’s why the selections are so prestigious.
All-Defense or not, the question that lingers still remains — what is that all worth? Scorers get paid if they can’t defend, but can defenders get paid if they can’t score? In today’s NBA, they should.
Here’s a list of wings who shoot less than 50 percent from the field and 30 percent from deep, who are somewhat similar to Roberson in someway. Also, how much they earn:
All young players except Allen, and Kidd-Gilchrist recently signed his extension. The rookie-scale players will mostly be looking at well paid deals; mainly because they have serious upside despite early offensive struggles. Ingram and Gordon both will expect max deals or close to, because they have star two-way potential. The others can be invested in because of their room for improvement on offense.
Kidd-Gilchrist may offer some insight however. An average salary of $13 million per year is very reasonable for a top level defender, particularly one who can get better offensively. The Thunder forward is a better defender than the former number two pick and Kentucky Wildcat, but is likely more limited long-term on offense.
If the Thunder can convince him to look at offers in the realm of $50–60 million over four years, they could find common ground. It would require Roberson to ignore market offers and potentially a more tempting offer sheet from the likes of Brooklyn or somewhere needing defense else like Denver, but he’d stay in a familiar environment that is increasingly better at maximizing his talents.
Crazy money was thrown around last summer, but teams will be more hesitant this summer and less money is available overall. Award validation may come before his free agency, but Andre Roberson’s financial future remains an unknown until July 1st.
Hopefully the price will be right in Oklahoma City.
