Atlanta Hawks’ Future Hinges On Paul Millsap’s Free Agency Decision
The choice made by their star forward in this summer’s free agency will likely determine the Hawks immediate future.
This was an interesting 2016–17 for the Atlanta Hawks and it is safe to say they reached the expectations of many in reaching the playoffs for the 10th straight season. The new acquisition of Dwight Howard along with rookie Taurean Prince definitely added something new to this Hawks team.
Certainly there were a lot of holes with the departure of Kyle Korver at the trade deadline coupled with Al Horford and Jeff Teague leaving last summer. In similar fashion to the Portland Trail Blazers two years ago, cores can disband in a hurry. It also happened to the Hawks and now the only player left from the starting five that won 60 games two years ago is Paul Millsap.
It was another impressive season for the power forward from Louisiana Tech. Millsap led the Hawks in scoring with 18.9 points per game while shooting a true shooting percentage of 48.1. He continued to be a very good two-way player for Atlanta. On offense, Millsap can stretch the floor with his shooting while being able to put the ball on the floor and bully his way to the basket.
Defensively he is a versatile defender who can handle his own when matched up against a guard and has a career defensive box plus minus of plus 2.3. Millsap showed at age 32 he can still be productive in the NBA and can bring a lot of things to the table. But, the question is will he still be productive for the Hawks or on some other team next year.
Millsap is currently entering his last year of a three-year $60 million deal he signed with Atlanta back in 2015–16. The last year on the deal has him slated to make around $21.5 million. It also has a player option where he can opt out and become a Unrestricted Free Agent this summer. The question of whether Millsap would opt out was answered quickly after Atlanta was eliminated by the Washington Wizards in the post game press conference.
With the salary cap expected to significantly increase again this offseason and given his age, this will probably be the last big contract Millsap will get in his career and it’s obvious he wants to get paid.
Keeping Millsap is a priority as per head coach Mike Budenholzer and its easy to see why he would think so. Millsap has easily been Atlanta’s most consistent player over the past couple of years. This past season was arguably his best yet. Assuming he can still keep up that type of production, signing Millsap to a long term deal makes a lot of sense for Atlanta. In fact, even if Millsap can keep up 70% of that production it would be a smart deal. Especially considering the Hawks have some young players who could blossom into key pieces moving forward.
Dennis Schroder is only 23 and has already established himself as the focal point of Atlanta’s offense (17.9 points and 6.3 assists per game in 2016–17). He has combined with Millsap to create a good one-two punch on offense and an even better pick and roll combo.
Tauren Prince showed flashes of potential in his rookie season and will only improve. Tim Hardaway Jr. showed he can be a solid secondary scoring option and let’s not forget Howard, who can still be productive if put in the right role. Playing in his hometown of Atlanta has seemed to at least settle the disgruntled big man who left both the Rockets and Lakers on bad terms. With Howard and Millsap in the front court the Hawks were a top-10 rebounding team, grabbing over 50% of total rebound opportunities per game.
Keeping Millsap will also help Atlanta when they run out a small-ball lineup. Mostly the point of small-ball lineups is to stretch out opposing defenses as well as minimize mismatches when defensive switches occur. In their series against Washington, it was clear keeping a big man like Howard for extended stretches on the court was an issue. Especially against teams who can also step out and hit a jump shot near the top of the key.
Pulling Howard out to that area of the court proved to be detrimental to the Hawks defense. It made much more sense for the Hawks to put a guy like Millsap at the five. Although the Hawks lost the series, having a player of Millsap’s versatility proved his value. To wit, his ability to stretch the floor, shooting efficiency and comfort level of guarding above the free throw line confirm he is still a good small-ball center.
On the flip side, there is a chance Millsap ends up walking away from Atlanta. It’s a very small chance, but a chance none-the-less. Letting Millsap walk would certainly open up some long term cap space for Atlanta to try and go after other free agents. But, it would create a huge void at the power forward spot and that is something the Hawks would have to address quickly.
His absence would also mean Atlanta would surely have to rely on the youngsters to lead the team. As good as they are currently; you can’t expect a group like that to be contending anytime soon. The extra cap space would allow Atlanta to build around the likes of Schroder and Prince while hoping Kent Bazemore starts to prove he was worth the huge contract he signed last offseason. Losing Millsap would result in a step back for the Hawks and they would have to invest in the development of their youth for the next couple of years.
The fact is most Eastern Conference teams have a decision to make; contend for second or rebuild with a view to the future. How long is LeBron James going to keep dominating the Eastern Conference? At the rate James is going, it’s going to be a couple of years minimum before he starts showing signs of wearing down. With that in mind, many are beginning to think of building a team whose prime would align with the timeline of James beginning to slow down.
The theory of teams trying to “out-last LeBron” is a complex one considering there are many variables that could go wrong and make the plan a lost cause. The choice of keeping your current core to try and stop James now or rebuilding for the future is a tricky one, especially given the risk associated with relying on draft picks and of course, figuring out when exactly James will start to decline.
Regardless of Millsap’s choice to opt out, if the Hawks view him as a key member of their team they need to re-sign him on a deal to keep him in Atlanta. It’s a big decision for both sides and it will be one that could change the course of the Hawks franchise moving forward. This is the fork in the road decision facing the franchise. Ultimately what happens with Millsap will determine if the Hawks keep trying to be a playoff team or rebuild with a much younger core.
