Atlanta Hawks Offseason In Review
After Mike Budenholzer stepped down as President of Basketball Operations, can the Atlanta Hawks pick a direction? Or did they already?
The retention of Paul Millsap at the trade deadline appeared to be a statement from Coach Mike Budenholzer. With this decision, he showed he would not sacrifice wins in the short term. Since the Hawks’ early oust at the hands of the Wizards, however, Atlanta now seems to be determined to reshape its roster at a fundamental level.
Mike Budenholzer stepped down as President of Basketball Operations shortly after the season ended. Travis Schlenk, a five-year Assistant GM to Bob Meyers in Golden State, was brought on to alleviate this responsibility. The need to separate the positions seems to be a prerogative for applicable teams, as they take control of the roster away from the coaches. So far, it appears to be a good move.
The offseason moves by Atlanta have been mostly consistent, seemingly targeting an approach of asset accumulation and cap flexibility. This is a tenet of a rebuilding team, whether the rebuild be swift or prolonged.
Needs:
Schlenk and the Hawks needed to shed salary. Atlanta spent the last few years retaining players and signing free agents in an attempt to extend its competitive window. First, the Hawks needed to unburden themselves of some of these contracts, while taking back young players on rookie deals, along with draft picks.
The ability to remain cap flexibility is a necessity for a team trying to rebuild on the fly. Taking back tradable contracts and draft picks was critical for the team during the offseason and will continue to be for the immediate future.
Key Losses:
Paul Millsap (sign and trade to Nuggets)
Dwight Howard (traded to Hornets)
Tim Hardaway Jr (RFA, signed with Knicks)
Key Additions:
- Draft: John Collins (19th overall)
- Free Agents: Dewayne Dedmon
- Trades: Marco Belinelli, Diamond Stone
Projected Depth Chart:
- Starting five: Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, Ersan Ilyasova, Dewayne Dedmon
- Bench: Marco Belinelli, John Collins, Mike Muscala, DeAndre Bembry, Malcolm Delaney, Miles Plumlee, Diamond Stone, Luke Babbitt, Tyler Dorsey, Nicolas Brussino
Best offseason move: Declining to match Tim Hardaway Jr’s offer sheet
Sometimes, the best deals are the ones you don’t do.
An honorable mention is warranted for Mike Budenholzer stepping down as President of Basketball Operations — thus allowing someone with a dispassionate view of the future, while not being compromised by the need to immediately address certain roster questions.
While young wing players are in demand, retaining them should not be decisions made in a vacuum. Anyone can be overpaid. It was a difficult decision for Schlenk. Retaining skilled assets is important, but not if it jeopardizes future plans or flexibility.
At four years, $71 million (an average annual value of $17.75 million), the chances of Hardaway living up to his contract, combined with the need to maintain cap flexibility, made this a crucial offseason decision.
It appears Schlenk got it right and saddled New York with one of the worst contracts of the offseason. Perhaps this wasn’t the most difficult decision of the offseason, but it may have been the most critical.
Worst move of the offseason: Trading Dwight Howard for Marco Belinelli and Miles Plumlee
The prospect of trading Dwight Howard for roster flexibility would have been a good one. Unfortunately, it isn’t exactly what the Hawks got in this trade.
By accepting Miles Plumlee in return, the Hawks have mitigated much of that flexibility. They will save $11 million against the cap during the 2019 offseason, but will be underneath Plumlee for an additional season. In fact, over the next three years, when everyone from the trades contracts are finished, the Hawks will have only saved $3 million.
Secondly, the Hawks had to move down in the draft to complete the deal. Moving from 41 to 30 is far more difficult to understand after the minimal cap flexibility gained from the trade.
Moving Dwight Howard cannot be easy, but the Hawks should have held out for a better deal.
Season Goals and Expectations:
First and foremost during the upcoming season, the Atlanta Hawks need to further develop their young players and maximize player talent. This may be possible, as Mike Budenholzer is relieved of the burden of management and can devote 100 percent of his focus to coaching.
Taurean Prince came alive in the playoffs, averaging 11 points and five rebounds in 31 minutes over the course of six games. The Hawks will want Prince to further this mature level of play on a consistent basis.
We can’t oversell how important this aspect of the Hawks’ rebuild is (and incidentally is) this season. The Hawks must successfully develop assets and young players to build this thing back up on the fly.
John Collins was selected by Atlanta 19th overall in the 2017 Draft. He averaged 19 points and 10 rebounds in 26 minutes per game his last year at Wake Forest. The Hawks will need to try to give him at least that many minutes next season. With a bevy of expiring contracts on the books, some minutes may open up in the second half of the year.
To continually attain assets that can be developed, the Hawks will have to cash in on the expiring and cap-friendly contracts they have on their books. Luke Babbitt ($1.5 million), Ersan Ilyasova ($6 million), Marco Belinelli ($6.6 million) and Malcolm Delaney ($2.5 million) are all on expiring deals.
Maximizing the returns on these assets, whether it be early in the season or at the trade deadline, could help to accelerate the team’s rebuild significantly and should be a priority for Atlanta next season.
This team will win some games. It’s unlikely the Hawks will end up in the tank. They will likely be a lottery team, but there is too much talent to expect a high lottery pick this season. However, there is nothing more important than coloring up assets and developing talent — even if that means losing games.
Having Budenholzer out of the front office should make this easier to accomplish. Aside from the ability to jettison players at the deadline for draft considerations, the Hawks should also be looking to acquire high-end talent through the trade market. Kent Bazemore and Dennis Schroder are not untouchable, nor should they be.
Win Projection: 37 wins. Slightly rosier than Vegas, who has the Hawks over/under at 34.5 wins next season. Expect the Hawks to hold pace with the middle of the pack in the early part of the season, before trades reshape the club in the second half.
Offseason Grade: B
Overall, based on what the Hawks had to do and the resources at their disposal, the offseason was very well-executed.
The ability to salvage good value for Millsap, based on the advanced nature of his contract situation, was a huge win for the organization. This gives them three potential, if not likely, first-round picks in the 2018 Draft. The trade also brought along a young, cost-controlled prospect at a position they could use some depth in.
Outside of the Dwight Howard trade — which we factor in — there isn’t very much the Hawks have done since the league year ended. That has been worthy of much criticism.
The acquisition of Belinelli, to go along with their litany of other expiring contracts, can only be graded completely if the Hawks capitalize on the asset by flipping it in-season. But, it would seem to match that trajectory of the other moves the organization has made this offseason.
