Boston Celtics/Chicago Bulls Playoff Preview
16 Wins A Ring Writers offer 3 different perspectives on each first round series
The Numbers:
Regular season: Tied 2–2
Celtics 108.0 PPG for (10th in NBA)/105.4 PPG allowed (15th in NBA)
Bulls 102.9 PPG for (23rd in NBA)/102.4 PPG allowed (6th in NBA)
Celtics record vs Eastern Conference playoff teams: 12–13
Bulls record vs Eastern Conference playoff teams: 13–14
Celtics Preview by Danny Emerman
Boston Celtics’ Series X Factor: Al Horford
Everyone basically knows what the Celtics are going to get out of Isaiah Thomas at this point, and they have not gotten past the first round with him leading the way by himself.
If Horford can be Thomas’ trusted sidekick, playing solid basketball on both ends, the Celtics shouldn’t have any problems in this series.
Boston Celtics’ Series MVP: Isaiah Thomas
The obvious answer here is Isaiah Thomas, but for argument’s sake, the most valuable advantage the Celtics could have in this series is the three-headed defensive monster of Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, and Jae Crowder.
The Bulls are tough on the wing, with Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler, but the Celtics can throw all three of those guys at them. Historically, Bradley has done a terrific job defending Wade, so look for Smart and Crowder to get their shots at Butler.
Boston Celtics Key Advantage Over Chicago Bulls:
The Celtics’ defense is very capable of shutting the Bulls down. Chicago scored 102.9 points per game in the regular season, which was eighth worst in the league. Besides Jimmy Butler, they can’t truly rely on any of their guys to consistently get buckets. Nikola Mirotic has come on strong lately and Dwyane Wade is Dwyane Wade, but they are both still uncertainties.
Everything slows down in the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Celtics could hold the Bulls to under 90 points per game, especially since none of the Bulls’ point guards create a matchup problem for Isaiah Thomas.
Boston Celtics Key Disadvantage Over Chicago Bulls:
The Bulls’ defense is surprisingly very good at patrolling the perimeter. They have held opponents to about nine three-pointers per game (sixth best in the league) on just 34%. The Celtics love to gun threes, but if they go cold, this series could get interesting quickly.
Additionally, the Bulls are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA (54.2 total rebounds per game, third in the league), while the Celtics struggle in that facet of the game. This makes Horford ever more vital to Boston’s success.
Unleash Rookie Jaylen Brown:
The Celtics can always play Jaylen Brown a little more. In this series, Stevens will likely give him bursts of playing time to get a crack at Jimmy Butler. Depending on how Crowder and Smart do on Butler corresponds to how much Brown should play.
Series Prediction: Celtics over Bulls in 7.
Chicago Preview by Brendan Vogt
Chicago Bulls’ Series X Factor: Rajon Rondo
Once considered a top PG in the league, Rondo’s stock has fallen about as far and as fast as any player’s in recent memory. He has a chance to win back some of the doubters with a solid performance against his old team.
When Rajon was running the point for Doc Rivers and Boston’s “Big Three”, he was the undoubted X-factor in those classic playoff clashes with LeBron. Miami could trot out their own big three, a superior one even, but Rondo wreaked havoc on those defenses. This was back before all of the assist hunting, and the altogether abandonment of defense on Rondo’s part.
It’s hard to remember, but there was once a time when Rondo cared about winning more than anything else. He sank those lay ups the defense gave to him, created turnovers with his aggressive (albeit to a detriment at times) defense, and even hit jumpers when it mattered most.
Some will argue the key is seeing Dwyane Wade turn back time and delivering some of his vintage playoff performances. But, in truth, it’s Rondo who needs to turn back the clock. He must resemble the player he once was for Boston if Chicago has any chance to advance.
The Celtics’ stingy perimeter defenders will have their hands full with Wade and Butler. Rondo must be aggressive on the much smaller Isaiah Thomas. If he’s actually establishing himself as a scoring threat, he might be able to make things easier for Chicago’s stars as a distributor as well. Don’t rule it out. Rondo is a weird dude, and a series against the C’s could bring the best out of him as a competitor.
Chicago Bulls’ Series MVP: Jimmy Butler
For about two weeks in the offseason, there was a small debate over who “the guy” would be in Chicago. After signing Rondo and Wade, there were — supposedly — now three alpha-male personalities in the locker-room. Rondo and Wade have rings, but Butler has that juice. He quickly put an end to that absurd conversation, and emerged as the Bulls leader, as well as one of the league’s best two-way players.
Butler was the league’s 14th best scorer this year at 23.9 points per game. According to Stat Muse, he scored 40 or more points in five different games this year. That’s tied for fifth-best mark in the NBA, and he topped it off with an unreal performance against Charlotte, in which he scored 52 points on 62.5% shooting.
He also averaged 6.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game while continuing to establish himself as one of the league’s better perimeter defenders. He’s one of the most well rounded players in the NBA.
This series won’t be easy for him, as Boston has a small army of plus defenders out on the wing. Even still, Jimmy is in the class of players who can’t be stopped, but only slowed. He will be Chicago’s best player in this series, as he’s been all year long.
Chicago Bulls Key Advantage Over Boston Celtics:
The key advantage that Chicago has is experience. This might sound odd, as it’s the Celtics, not the Bulls that have seen so much postseason success over the last decade. But this Bulls team features two players who have won championships. And a sure-fire hall of famer in Wade.
There’s nothing new about the playoffs for Boston as an organization, but the C’s have a lot of pressure on them after securing the one seed. Some see this as a trap series, and one that the Bulls could steal should Boston lose its composure or look ahead to their next match up.
Both Rondo and Wade have faced tougher challenges in their careers, and Butler is a headstrong player who fears nothing. Chicago is outmatched in this series, but they have guys who believe in themselves, and have tasted success at a high level before. Don’t rule this group of competitors out.
Chicago Bulls Key Disadvantage Over Boston Celtics:
Woof. There are plenty to choose from here. Chicago is an inferior team to Boston on both ends of the court. They lack the depth that the C’s have, and they don’t possess the ability to get hot from beyond the arc — the great equalizer in the modern game of basketball.
As concerning as those things are, Chicago’s biggest disadvantage lies in this coaching match-up. When Celtics coach Brad Stevens took the job, it was a legitimate talking point as to whether or not he was in over his head. After all, Stevens was young, Butler was small, and the NBA is a different animal than college. As it turned out, none of this mattered.
Stevens has evolved into one of the brightest minds in the league, and has a tactical advantage over virtually every coach he faces. This is certainly the case with Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg, who so far looks to be everything that folks were worried Stevens might. And a coach whose tenure could be over should the Bulls lose. Chicago does actually have some talent on its roster, but they will be out coached from the start to the end of this series.
Attack Paint To Gain Perimeter Opportunities:
The Chicago Bulls need to shoot and hit more threes. According to Stat Muse, in the 4 regular season matchups against the Celtics, the Bulls only made 7.8 three point shots a game. For context, the Celtics averaged 13 in those head-to-head matchups.
This is easier said than done, as the Bulls simply don’t have many shooters on their roster. But in modern basketball, you have to produce from deep to have a chance. The good news for the Bulls, according to NBA.com, is they outscored the Celtics 40–9 on second chance points in their two regular season victories.
Play stingy D, let the threes fly, and trust in your ability to do work on the offensive glass. That’s the closest thing to a winning formula that Chicago has.
Again, I think the key here is Rondo. If he’s able to establish himself on the drive and in the paint against IT, that might open up more drive and kick looks for Butler and Mirotic. They need to get more open shots from deep, and they need to pull the trigger without hesitation.
They can help themselves by avoiding turnovers as well, as the Bulls lost the turnover battle in the regular season series.
Series Prediction: Boston over Chicago in 5 games
Some see this as a trap series. I see this as a nightmare matchup for Chicago. Boston has better starters, more depth, shoots better from three, and is a significantly better coached team than the Bulls.
The closest thing that Chicago has to an advantage is experience and offensive rebounding. But the experience is a double-edged sword, as one could just as easily describe Wade and Rondo as old, and declining. Can the Bulls win a game or two if Rondo and Wade can turn back the clock? Sure. Can one reasonably expect that to happen throughout the entirety of the series? Probably not.
As for the rebounding, Chicago was one of the league’s elite glass eating teams on the offensive end in the first half of the season. But since the break they’ve slid into the bottom-15 in OREB percentage, likely a direct result of them trading Taj Gibson away.
Independent Preview by Max Seng
Series X Factors:
For Boston, it comes down to their accuracy from deep. The Celtics ranked third in the entire association in 3-point attempts per game, but only 14th in percentage. They have four players attempting over four three’s a game, and Al Horford isn’t far from that. If Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart and others can make open shots and Isaiah Thomas creates, they become much harder to guard.
For Chicago, they’ve got some weird juju working in their favor. Dwyane Wade has returned from his elbow injury, and if Playoff Rondo ever appears again, you’d have to think it’d be in this series. Plus, the whole “TNT Bulls” thing (Chicago has won its last 20 TNT-aired games.) But the basketball answer is Nikola Mirotic, who finished the season strong by scoring nearly 16 points a game and shooting 48 percent from deep in his last 10 games. He could give the Bulls the spacing they so desperately crave.
Series MVP:
It has to be Isaiah Thomas if the Celtics want to win. Everything runs through him, and although I’m sure Chicago will start to give Thomas the Steph Curry treatment by getting the ball out of his hands through trapping pick and rolls, Thomas will find ways.
Plus, this will not be the series to expose Thomas defensively, as he can hide most of the time on Rondo, and the Celtics have too many bodies to throw at Butler and Wade.
Thomas has had well-documented struggles in the playoffs when the games slow down and scouting is much more detailed, but it’s a small sample size to go off of. Maybe in later rounds, but Thomas will rise above in this series.
Key Factor In Series:
It’ll be long range shooting. If the Bulls can have two games with 12 3-pointers made and Butler goes off, they likely take the Celtics further than Boston would like in the series. If Boston catches fire from behind the arc, this is a sweep. Butler and Thomas will likely play to a draw, the play of Wade and possibly Rondo could throw monkey wrenches in, but this series comes down to which team can make shots from deep.
Series Prediction: Boston over Chicago in 6 games
Maybe I’m giving the Bulls too much credit, but Boston isn’t coming in playing their best, and the pedigree of Butler, Wade and (to a lesser extent) Rondo tell me they can get one game. The play of Mirotic as of late makes me think maybe they can steal another one. Of the two 1–8 series, this one will go longer, even if it’s not as fun to watch.
