Chris Paul Is The Missing Piece To The Houston Rockets’ Puzzle
The Houston Rockets pulled off a blockbuster trade with the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday when they acquired Chris Paul.
The Houston Rockets pulled off the biggest move of an eventful offseason so far on Wednesday when they acquired Chris Paul from the Los Angeles Clippers in exchange for Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker, Montrezl Harrell and Kyle Wiltjer. The Rockets also acquired DeAndre Liggins from the Dallas Mavericks and Darrun Hilliard from the Detroit Pistons and included them and a top-three protected 2018 first round draft pick.
It was the definition of a blockbuster as four teams were involved and the Rockets sent a total of seven players to the Clippers in exchange for the nine-time All Star. It allowed the Clippers to recoup something from Paul’s impending departure, as he had decided Houston was where he wanted to go as a free agent if he exercised his player option. Paul opted into his $22.868 million player option in order to facilitate this sign-and-trade between the Clippers and Rockets.
This trade sparked concerns over whether Paul and James Harden can coexist successfully. After all, both are ball-dominant stars who conduct every element of the offense when they’re on the floor. Can two guys who need the ball in their hands be effective when playing together? Or will the hubris of two superstars in such close proximity be their downfall?
As it happens, part of Paul’s attraction to the Rockets is the idea of playing with Harden, and playing off the ball appeals to him. Per ESPN’s Marc Spears:
Having multiple ball handlers and playmakers has the potential to take what was the NBA’s second-best offense last season and turbocharge it. James Harden dragged his team to the finish line and was battered, bruised and exhausted by the end of the season when the Rockets collapsed in game six of the Western Conference semifinals against the San Antonio Spurs, but the addition of an equal star who can take that load off his shoulders will pay dividends.
While the Rockets played capably when Harden was off the floor last year, they were a team that was susceptible to simple exploits from elite opponents and defenses. The Rockets can pick apart and destroy most teams with the Morey-ball philosophy, eschewing mid-range jump shots and emphasizing three-pointers and dunks and layups. The Spurs countered this by giving the Rockets all the mid-range jumpers they wanted and more, knowing they wouldn’t take those over contested threes.
Case in point, as Eric Gordon turns the corner around Nene’s screen, LaMarcus Aldridge sags into the paint to cut off his drive, forcing Gordon to either kick it out or put up a 10' floater. This was a common trend for Spurs bigs, sagging into the paint to prevent Harden and Rockets’ ball handlers from driving to the basket.
The Rockets take the fewest mid-range field goal attempts in the league by a mile (just 7.1 per game, the Brooklyn Nets are second at 11.2 per game), and they’re inefficient when they do take them. The Rockets scored just .772 points per jump shot inside 17', and .792 points per jumper between 17' and the three-point line.
So, the Rockets don’t take mid-range jumpers, and when they do they’re especially inefficient scoring a meager 4.75 points per game on such shots.
Enter Chris Paul.
Among all players who took three or more mid-range jumpers per game last season, Paul led by a massive margin with a 50.9 percent field goal percentage. The gap between Paul and second-place Bradley Beal — who checked in at 47.9 percent — was the same as the gap between Beal and 16th place Klay Thompson at 44.8 percent.
A season ago Paul shot somewhat worse from the mid-range, hitting just over 45 percent. That’s still 12th best in the league, and way above league-average from the mid-range.
Paul will plug a massive deficiency and allow the Rockets to shift from a philosophy that they followed not just dogmatically but also practically because they don’t have skilled mid-range shooters. For all James Harden’s inimitable talents, he’s not an excellent mid-range shooter. That’s fine in January against the Sacramento Kings. It’s problematic in May against the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors.
Paul doesn’t just provide a mid-range safety valve. He’s also one of the best pick and roll ball handlers in the NBA, and if there’s one thing the Rockets love to run, it’s the pick and roll. The Rockets ran that play almost 30 times per game last season, scoring an impressive .972 points per possession.
More than 40.5 percent of James Harden’s possessions were in the pick and roll last season, and he scored 1.014 points per possession as the ball handler. That put him in the 93rd percentile. The Rockets also scored 1.121 points per possession off his passes from the pick and roll. In Chris Paul, the Rockets now have another deadly weapon who can both catch and shoot from passes out of the pick and roll, or run it himself.
Last season Paul scored .961 points per possession as the pick and roll ball handler, good for the 83rd percentile. He generated even more points per possession off his passes than Harden, responsible for 1.143 points per possession. However, it’s as a jump shooter where Paul may make life miserable for opponents. Paul scores 1.003 points per possession in jump shots off the dribble (90th percentile), 1.286 points per possession when taking catch-and-shoot jumpers and a staggering 1.682 points per possession when taking unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers.
Think Chris Paul is going to get some open shots alongside James Harden in Mike D’Antoni’s offense?
Harden could have vetoed this deal and killed it in its tracks, staying the lone superstar in Houston. However, in order to compete against the otherworldly Warriors the Rockets needed to add another piece to their puzzle. While this piece alone may not be enough to defeat the mighty Warriors, their chances shine somewhat brighter with Paul than without him. Harden knows that, and the Rockets are better off now because of it.
