Cleveland Cavaliers/Boston Celtics, Eastern Conference Finals Preview
16 Wins A Ring Writers offer 3 different perspectives on the Eastern Conference Finals series
Regular Season Numbers:
Cavaliers won season series 3–1
Cavaliers 110.3 PPG for (4th in NBA)/107.2 PPG allowed (20th in NBA)
Celtics 108.0 PPG for (10th in NBA)/105.4 PPG allowed (15th in NBA)
Cavaliers record vs Eastern Conference playoff teams: 15–12
Celtics record vs Eastern Conference playoff teams: 12–13
Cavaliers Preview by Brendan Vogt
Cleveland Cavaliers Series X Factor:
The X-Factor for Cleveland is the third wheel in their big three: the 3-point shooting, board inhaling, full-court heaving Kevin Love. While Love has certainly cemented his status as a star in this league, he has yet to enter Kyrie Irving and LeBron James territory when it comes to expecting greatness on the big stage. Last year’s finals victory will be remembered as an all-time comeback, the end of a draught, and the pinnacle of LeBron James career. But it was particularly important for Love’s career as well.
Not unlike Chris Bosh when he took on the “Krist Novoselic” role of Miami’s big three, Love struggled to find his place as the third option on his new team. Doubt began to creep in as the NBA universe wondered aloud if trading for Love had been a mistake. You could literally see him losing confidence as he searched for the optimal version of his basketball self in this strange new climate.
But, Love figured it out in the playoffs last year. Lost in the echoes of “LeBlock” and the subsequent shot that were both heard round the world was Love’s defense on Curry. Ever since that stop he has looked different. He’s looked confident on the basketball court, jubilant even — validated.
It’s not uncommon to see LeBron start the game looking to play the role of the distributor, and it’s usually during this time when Love is most aggressive. Only seven players scored more first quarter points per game than Love’s 7.6 this season.
He has been slightly less aggressive in the playoffs so far. That number has dropped to 6.3 points per 1st quarter, on just about one less three-point attempt. Yet, he’s still an excellent early scorer, and we can expect LBJ to try and get Love going right out of the gate via the drive and kick.
Boston will have their hands full as it is containing James and Irving, but if Cleveland is able to ride hot starts from a confident Kevin Love then this series will be a nightmare for Boston.
Cleveland Cavaliers Series MVP:
LeBron. Raymone. James. This is every LeBron fan’s favorite time of the year. As the regular season neared it’s end, the NBA universe began its yearly tradition of trying to hand LeBron’s crown to some other player, while searching for potential threats to his throne in the Eastern Conference.
Russell Westbrook was brilliant, James Harden was breathtaking, and Kawhi Leonard was cyborg-y. Each of them is worthy of a claim to the MVP award. But take the “single-season award” factor out of it and this debate becomes simple: No player alive is more valuable to a basketball team than LeBron James.
Boston is in an incredible place. They’ve got a talented basketball team, money to blow, a superb young coach, and the number one pick in the upcoming draft. They’re poised to do great things in this league for years to come. They are not poised to knock off the defending champions in a seven game series.
In the six consecutive seasons that LeBron has reached the finals, he’s only needed the one seed twice to do so. Every team and every player has a unique set of goals entering the season, but LeBron’s never changes: be the best player on the planet, and win a championship.
LeBron is not chasing one seeds, he’s chasing rings, and he’s never played better basketball than he’s playing right now. The King is averaging 34.4 points, 9 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 2.1 steals and 1.5 blocks per game on 55.7 percent from the field and 46.8 percent from deep. Have fun with that Boston.
Cleveland Cavaliers Key Strength:
The Cavaliers are an elite three point shooting team. They lead the playoffs so far in team 3P% while putting up 33.1 attempts per game. After knocking down 34 more three-pointers than Toronto in their previous series, they’ll look to create a similar disparity against Boston.
The dynamic will be different this time around, as Boston has actually taken more three point attempts per game in the playoffs. That said, in the regular season the Celtics finished just 14th in 3P%. Cleveland will hope to turn this into a shoot out, knowing they’re the more efficient team from deep.
There’s a second layer to this advantage as well. Boston is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams to qualify for the playoffs; they’re averaging the second least DRPG of those 16 teams. It was almost their undoing against the Chicago Bulls, one of the league’s best offensive rebounding teams.
The Cavs are the more efficient team from deep, and their offensive rebounding specialist Tristan Thompson is already licking his lips for this series. Let it fly and let the big man eat.
Cleveland Cavaliers Key Weakness:
If the Cavaliers have a disadvantage in this series it’s their depth. The Cavs second unit features plenty of big names and big talent: Kyle Korver, Deron Williams, Derrick Williams, Channing Frye and Richard Jefferson are names that every NBA fan knows. But the Cavaliers are simply a different team when LeBron goes to the bench, and without him on the court to direct traffic and run the offense, all of that talent might go for naught.
Led by Marcus Smart, hustle incarnate, the Celtics bench is constructed from players who know how to do the little things that are required to steal a victory. He and Kelly Olynyk were the x-factors in the series against Washington, and that Celtics depth was the difference.
They’ll have to take advantage of those rare moments when Cleveland is sitting their starters.
Let the Little Dog Eat To Avoid the Smorgasbord:
The Celtics assisted on field goal attempts at an elite rate this season racking up just over 25 a game. According to stat muse, Boston hit that mark on the nose in their regular season match ups with Cleveland. They also assisted on about two more field goals per game than the Cavs.
Boston has stepped it up even more in the playoffs, leading all 16 teams with 27.3 per game. There’s no simple solution to slowing that down, but the Cavs might consider an approach that sounds counter-intuitive to success.
Let Boston’s stars go to work. Isaiah Thomas is a world wonder, and watching him take it to the rack consistently on your favorite team can be infuriating. “How is he doing this?” you might ask yourself. Followed quickly by the declaration of “They can’t let him do this!”
But here’s the thing: as improbable and impressive as IT’s scoring ability is, it’s also a much preferable poison to letting Boston move the ball. Cleveland might be tempted to take the “make someone else beat you” approach, but in this case I think they should avoid double teaming Thomas. Eliminate the passing lanes, and force IT to make tough shots.
Series Prediction:
For almost seven years now the fate of the East has been decided long before the season tipped off.
Plenty has changed in the conference since LeBron was last in Cleveland, but one thing has remained the same through it all. When it comes to analyzing the Eastern Conference, there’s only one factor that has mattered: what team is LeBron James on?
Sure, Boston is an exceptionally well-coached team. Brad Stevens deserves coach of the year consideration for his job fostering elite team chemistry, and then instilling a playoff-like discipline in his players.
Sure, Boston has depth, and they match up well with this Cleveland team defensively.
Sure, Boston was able to leap frog Cleveland for the top seed in the conference and secure home court advantage.
These things are all true, and they are all important factors in a playoff race. But allow me to pose the question again:
What team is LeBron James on?
He’s on Cleveland, and that’s all you need to know when making a prediction in this series. The Land in 5.
Celtics Preview by Danny Emerman
Boston Celtics’ Series X Factor:
Marcus Smart will be pivotal for the Celtics, especially in their efforts to limit Kyrie Irving. In their one win against Cleveland in the regular season, Smart played 33 minutes and recorded 8 rebounds. According to Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer, Smart’s “perfect and invisible game” from the middle of the third quarter on clinched the first round series for Boston.
Boston needs the Marcus Smart from Game 7 to show up. He was fantastic — diving for loose balls, making winning plays, and skying for rebounds — on both ends. The key for him is to limit turnovers and play within himself; don’t force the issue too much on offense and stay locked in on D.
He’ll get a shot at Kyrie Irving and, at times, The King. Tough defensive matchups tend to keep Smart engaged on offense.
In the four regular season games, Smart was a minus -11.3 in plus/minus differential. They need him to turn that around, especially at home, to have any chance at winning the series.
Boston Celtics’ Series MVP:
Isaiah Thomas scored 29 points per game in the regular season. Against the Cavs, he replicated that, but only shot 21% from deep.
In Game 7 of the Wizards series, Thomas launched his typical pull-up threes from above the break, but with a focus on technique. His legs, although tired in the fourth quarter, powered him off the court and gave him a good 2 feet of lift. His balance off the dribble made tough shots look routine. When Isaiah maintains balance, he can hit from anywhere. He’ll need to focus on his approach in the Cavs series, where no shot will come easy.
In the regular season, Cleveland slotted Kyrie Irving onto Isaiah to start, but spent meaningful minutes with longer defenders — either Iman Shumpert or even LeBron James — chasing him. Thomas has historically struggled with significantly taller defenders in front of him, and it will be hard for him to find switches with the Cavaliers’ switching defense.
Although they went 1–3 against Cleveland in the regular season, they had relative success. Three of the games were decided by under 6 points. But does it even matter? As Al Horford said, Cleveland is a completely different monster in the playoffs.
“They’re playing at a really high level,” Horford told ESPN. “The regular season for them is just kind of like, let’s get through it. And now they’ve turned it up to another level. So it’s going to be a fun challenge for our group.”
Boston Celtics Key Strength:
Another MVP, though it’s a cop out, is Brad Stevens. His adept rotations, inbounds play, and after timeout sets could be the difference in finding easy points. On the opposite bench, Ty Lue will certainly not outsmart President Stevens.
The coaching staff for Boston is a big advantage over Cleveland. It will show late in games when the Cavs offense stagnates to LeBron isolations and the Celtics react. It will show in the Celtics’ ability to create open shots in the halfcourt. It will show in their players’ fatigue compared to Cleveland’s.
Also, don’t forget the Celtics have home-court advantage. The Cavs gave them the 1-seed in exchange for regular season rest and laziness. The Celtics didn’t lose a home game in the Wizards series and if they protect their house, can naturally win the series by winning four games in the Garden. Of course, LeBron James has a knack for winning road playoff games, but home court advantage is huge in the playoffs.
Boston Celtics Key Weakness:
The Cavaliers have much, much more talent than the Celtics. They have a better roster than everyone except the Warriors. They have the best player since Michael Jordan and shooters everywhere.
The Celtics have particularly had trouble containing point guard Kyrie Irving. He averaged 26 points per game on 53% shooting in the regular season versus Boston. The Celtics can throw a combination of Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, and Terry Rozier at the shifty guard, but he still finds ways to get buckets. He’s a special scorer.
Obviously, LeBron James is a monster. He affects the game in so many ways and can completely win games by himself through his playmaking and bulldozing scoring ability. The Celtics can throw as many guys at him as they want — Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart will take their shots on King James — but nobody can stop James, only hope he goes cold from the outside. James, however, is shooting an unbelievable 47% from beyond the arc in the eight 2017 playoff games he’s played. Woof.
Series Prediction:
If the Celtics are going to have a chance in the series, they have to win Game 1. They have a decent shot at taking the first game, since the Cavaliers haven’t played in 10 days and will likely play a little rusty.
Realistically, the Celtics would be lucky to push Cleveland to seven games. Boston is a tough, competitive team, which is worth a game or two, but their talent level just isn’t near Cleveland’s. And it shouldn’t be. They’re contending while simultaneously running “The Process.” Just three years ago, the team won 25 games.
Cleveland has too much firepower and experience for a huge upset, but FiveThirtyEight still projects the Celtics as favorites. According to Nate Silver’s site, they have a 52% chance of winning the series. The model must significantly weight home court advantage, because every other source, including Vegas, has the Cavaliers heavily favored.
LeBron James has his eyes set on another Larry O’Brien trophy to add to his collection. The “LeBron vs. MJ” question has recently been rejuvenated, and James knows it. If he can pull off a title against a Warriors team with Kevin Durant, he has a real claim as the best basketball player to ever walk the earth. In his mind, the Celtics are just a minor speed bump on LeBron’s crash course to G.O.A.T status.
Neutral Preview by Tamberlyn Richardson
Prior to beginning, a quick caveat; the number three occupied my thought process preparing the preview. To that end, it is the the common thread running throughout.
Series X Factor:
Debate continues regarding the exact date and creator of the quote the three R’s. Originally it was used to describe the foundation of learning including reading, writing and arithmetic. Basketball is also a game of fundamentals which require players to read offensive sets. Analytics could serve as the arithmetic. And, unless you are ex Wizards’ coach, Randy Whitman presumably writing could be covered by the coaches clip board directions.
Sticking with the three R’s analogy however, the X Factor in the series can easily be equated to the three R’s as well:
Rest: The Cleveland Cavaliers kicked off the 2017 playoffs with their first round series against the Indian Pacers. The Cavs used the minimum 4-games to oust Indy earning them a full week’s rest. In round two LeBron James and company emulated their sweeping success against the Raptors earning the squad an additional 9-days off to await their Eastern Conference Finals (ECF) opponent.
Conversely, the Boston Celtics began their postseason adventure April 16, requiring 6-games to take out the Bulls. Following a single day off the Celtics waged war with the Wizards pushing their second round series to the limit. Once again, Boston gets 1-day off prior to hosting the Cavs.
In all, since the playoffs began 33 days ago the Cavaliers have played 8 games and been idle on 24. Boston alternatively have played 13 games in 31 days and been idle on 18. Having reached the ECF the teams will play every other day with the Cavs clearly benefiting from all the rest.
Rust: As witnessed in the first game of the Western Conference Finals, the Celtics, like the Spurs may benefit early from a rusty Cleveland squad who may take a quarter or two to rediscover their offensive rhythm.
Reserves: In the Game 7 victory over Washington, the Celtics’ reserves outscored the Wizards’ reserves 48 to 5. If there is a true advantage for the Celt’s it comes courtesy of this unit. Although the Cavaliers boast more depth than the Wizards, it is of the mature, veteran nature.
However, the main issue for Cleveland extends beyond the reserves. Simply put, Cleveland falls apart defensively the minute LeBron leaves the court. LeBron’s on court defensive rating is 103.2. Whereas his off court defensive rating is 125.8.
Of his staggering playoff production, the one stat which stand outs like a blinking neon light is his 42.4 minutes per game usage. Fellow starters, Love, Thompson and Irving have the next highest minutes per game usage with Irving still a full 8 minutes behind.
This is where the rest plays such an integral part to the Cavs’ success. Obviously, if Tyronn Lue could play James the full 48 minutes he would, but being afforded the opportunity to rest James between series sweeps has kept him fresh and sharp.
Series MVP:
Jump aboard the time machine and take a ride through 13 seasons with three very specific segments of the Kings career.
In part one, the young King is drafted by his home town Cavaliers. Despite his best efforts, the Cavs fail to break through. Over seven seasons James leads his team to five playoff berths and one finals appearance. Arguably, the most memorable game occurs in Game 5 of 2006–7 versus the Pistons, when in a smidgen over six minutes, James scores 29 of the squads final 30 points.
Part two, ties to the ‘Decision’ period and creation of a ‘Big 3’ in Miami. Here James learns what it takes to break through and wins his first two championships in four attempts.
Part three: centers on the ‘Return”, the creation of a new ‘Big 3’, the comeback from being down 3–1 and LeBron James collecting his third Championship.
If you’re asking what this trilogy has to do with the modern day king, the answer is everything. Each stage allowed LeBron to gain the valuable knowledge, assets and confidence required to reach his current apex.
The most recent title arguably rocketed James to an entirely new level; a scary proposition for all challengers. Although James’ tool kit has always been well stocked, his Achilles Heel was distance shooting. In 11 post seasons James averaged 32.8 percent from deep. This season James has more venom in his perimeter shot (46.8 percent) than a Black Mamba (no pun intended).
The scariest part of his game is how calm and confident he appears. Then factor in, all this rest is resulting in James looking like he’s been dipping into the fountain of youth. It’s as though he married his early physicality with his older wisdom — a frightening combination.
Key Factor in Series:
Remember the theme, so the key has to be— three-point shooting.
Cleveland has been on fire from the perimeter, increasing their regular season efficiency of 38.4 percent by 5 points (43.4 percent). Boston also improved from a regular season efficiency of 35.9 percent to a playoff efficiency of 37.4 percent.
Boston attempt almost two additional threes (+1.8) while Cleveland connect on just over one extra three (1.3) per game.
What may be the deciding factor for who wins this key offensive element is which team delivers the better perimeter defense. The Celtics hold the edge in this regard. And, while pundits may point to the poor perimeter shooting of Chicago and middling Wizards squads, the fact is the Celtics shaved 4.2 and 5.5 percent off those averages respectively.
Conversely, the Cavs allowed Indiana to improve by 1.5 percent, but cut the Raptors percent by 3.1 percent. That said, without Kyle Lowry Toronto lost between two and three made three’s per game.
Conceivably, the teams could cancel each other out. But, if one squad gets hot it would push them ahead of other.
Series Prediction:
Let’s face it, aside from a handful of games, these playoffs have been dull, predictable and boring. As much as witnessing offensive prowess can be titillating for home squads, receiving a steady diet of it only serves to remove the uniqueness of the talent.
Although the Celtics enter the ECF with a trio of successes (top draft pick, winning game 7 of the second round and entry to the ECF), barring a LeBron James implosion the odds don’t favor them.
That said, the Celtics feature Brad Stevens who’ll do something neither Nate McMillan nor Dwane Casey did -coach. Moreover, the Celtics are a physical team who’ll be aggressive defensively. This could be further fueled by the bad blood existing between Kelly Olynyk and Kevin Love as well as Jae Crowder and JR Smith.
But, as long as LeBron James is playing the edge is definitively slanted toward Cleveland. One can hope the Celtics make it a series, but it’s far more likely the Celts will be lucky to lose via the gentleman’s sweep.
