Cleveland Cavaliers/Boston Celtics Game 3 Analysis
16 Wins A Ring Writers offer 3 different perspectives on ECF, Game 3 results: Celtics 111 — Cavaliers 108
Cavaliers Analysis by Brendan Vogt
What Worked:
Cleveland played a little too loose to start the game, and the result was a sloppy first five minutes of basketball. But the Cavaliers weathered the storm thanks to their x-factor and first quarter specialist Kevin Love.
Love is known for his hot starts, and he had his best first quarter of the playoffs as he dropped 15 points, making five of his eight three point attempts. The crisp offense that Cleveland displayed in the first two games was missing, but Love’s scoring propelled them to a 35–24 lead after twelve minutes of play.
The lead grew to as large as 21, and it looked like the Cavs would never look back as more threes rained down from J.R. Smith, Kyrie Irving, and Kyle Korver. But Boston battled, LeBron balked, and the lead disintergated.
Lessons Learned:
In the third quarter of game 3, TNT ran a clip of LeBron James at shoot around. He looked frustrated, and was pacing back in forth as he appeared to choke back audible frustration. The broadcast team pointed out that his frustration might have been with his shot, something he apparently struggled with while warming up. It seeped into the first half too. For the first time all playoffs, he looked uncomfortable with his jumper.
That’s usually when we see LeBron look to defer to his teammates or put his head down and attack the rim. In the first half, LeBron looked like he was trying to play the role of distributor, and as he often does, he tried to get Kevin Love going.
Love was dialed in from three, and that served as decent explanation for LeBron’s passiveness. But as the Celtics chipped away at a 21-point lead and slowly crept back into the game, James was nowhere to be found.
Prior to game 3, LeBron looked to have turned a corner in his career. His talent has always been there, as has the physicality. But for a long time it seemed as if he lacked something that the other greats had: a particular brand of killer instinct: Belief in oneself that far surpasses confidence, and might be better described as knowledge.
Michael Jordan didn’t just believe he was the best of all-time, he knew it. Anyone else’s opinion on the matter was irrelevant. That knowledge seeped off Jordan, it was almost tangible, and anyone watching him play knew it too.
MJ never had a Finals performance like LeBron did back in 2011; Bron was passive and disengaged — shook. Those days were the peak of the LeBron doubt, and the Skip Bayless-es of the world ran rampant.
After climbing basketball’s Mt. Everest last year by overcoming a 3–1 deficit in the Finals against a 73-win team, it looked as if LeBron had put the 2011 version of himself to rest. The past was dead and buried, and the King had a new look in his eyes, as if he had learned what all the greats before him had: “no one can stop me.”
Not so tonight. LeBron looked more like his 2011-self and the Isaiah Thomas-less Celtics pulled off one of the most improbable playoff victories of all time. When the Cavs win, all the credit goes to LeBron. After a performance like that, the weight of that loss falls on his shoulders and his alone. There’s no way to sugar coat it: LeBron James was bad on Sunday night.
Game 4 Adjustment:
The Cavs should launch an official investigation into the potential re-emergence of the aliens from Space Jam. LeBron looked less like a Monstar himself, and more like Charles Barkley in a pick up game post extraterrestrial encounter. That was not King James, “just a wannabe that looks like him.”
The hot take cannons are ready and loaded with the possibility of the Celtics having a better chance in this series without IT. But the reality is that LeBron’s poor performance was the biggest factor in this loss.
The Cavs go as far as LeBron takes them. Even with a remarkable performance from Kevin Love and an impressive effort on the glass from Tristan Thompson, they fell short on Saturday. They will continue to fall short if LeBron can’t wake up.
Game 4 Prediction:
All of a sudden this series has a completely different feel to it — as does this exercise. For the first two games, the challenge of making this prediction was finding a clever way to articulate the utter domination that we all expected from Cleveland. Now, as game four looms, the possibility of the Celtics winning another game has to be taken seriously. The Cavs were in autopilot all playoffs long, now they’ve got to kick it back into manual and navigate their way through the turbulence.
It would be a lot of fun to see the Celtics steal a second straight game in Cleveland, but I don’t expect consecutive poor performances from James.
2011 LeBron made an appearance, but it won’t be an extended stay for the unwelcome guest. Cleveland rebounds in game four.
Celtics Analysis by Danny Emerman
What Worked:
It’s not a series until the home team wins a game, apparently.
The Celtics overcame a 21-point lead in the third quarter as the law of averages kicked in for the Cavaliers in the second half. After shooting 60% from deep in the first half, Cleveland only made 2 of 17 triples in the final 24 minutes.
Brad Stevens is the MVP of this game. Boston had three out of timeout plays in the last minute of the game. They converted on all three of them and the last one resulted in an Avery Bradley buzzer-beating three for the win. The team ramped up the defense in the second half with his halftime adjustments and Stevens finally inspired some fight out of his team. He believed in Jonas Jerebko and enabled Marcus Smart to shoot with confidence.
Jerebko and Smart were key for Boston in the huge Game 3 upset in Cleveland. Marcus Smart literally had the best shooting game of his life. He sunk 7/10 three-pointers and drew two three-shot fouls! Smart finished with 27 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists — LeBron-like numbers. Juxtapose that with the LeBron James of Game 3, who scored 11 points and committed 6 turnovers, and you can clearly conclude that Smart outplayed the best player in the world. Marcus freaking Smart.
Jonas Jerebko had the best +/- in the game (+22) and didn’t miss a shot. He was 4/4 overall and collected 4 rebounds. His energy off the bench lit a fire under the Celtics. He jawed with literally anyone in a Cleveland jersey and the Cavs didn’t respond.
Defensively, the Celtics obviously did a great job limiting LeBron James. They forced him to be a jump shooter and he never found his rhythm. In general, the interior defense was on point. Although they never had a prototypical “rim-protector” in the game, Olynyk, Jerebko, Smart, and Crowder all did terrific jobs affecting shots in the paint.
Boston’s bench outscored Cleveland’s 32 to 9.
Lessons Learned:
Tristan Thompson nearly bailed LeBron James and Kyrie Irving out from a huge choke job in the fourth. Thompson was great all game, remaining hyperactive on the boards throughout and sinking his free throws. The 50% free throw shooter hit 12/15 freebies.
Boston also struggled to contain Kevin Love. They lost him numerous times in the first half, but tightened up on him later in the game. He made them pay, draining 7/13 three-pointers for 28 points.
Al Horford also needs to play better. 2 rebounds are frankly unacceptable. Thompson exposes many of his flaws, but Horford can be more aggressive offensively. There was a stretch in the third quarter when he made two strong post moves in a row, but then retreated back to the perimeter. He needs to find a balance between bruising and operating from the arc.
Game 4 Adjustment:
Continue to make LeBron a jump-shooter, if possible. He can put his head down and get the rim whenever he wants, but he never found a rhythm in Game 3. He’s going to look to get his next game, so the Celtics should commit to clogging the lane and forcing him to facilitate.
It really doesn’t matter at this point who the Celtics start, but it doesn’t really make sense to start Amir Johnson, especially with Jerebko playing so well. Starting Jerebko would be a good way to maintain bench continuity while also starting with good energy by finding Jerebko minutes. Ride the hot hand, especially when that hot hand is playing harder than everyone.
On a more technical note, the Celtics’ pick and roll defense was much better. Instead of switching bigs onto James, Boston showed and recovered. Olynyk would pop out to momentarily check James, giving Crowder or Smart time to get back in front of him. That strategy is much more effective than the lazy switching Boston tried in the first two games.
Game 4 Prediction:
The Cavs will return the favor and protect their house in Game 4. For some reason, LeBron coasted through Game 3. Expect him to be more engaged next game.
With their improved defense and toughness, the Celtics can make it hard on Cleveland. They can grit and grind them to a competitive game, but Cleveland is just so much more talented. LeBron doesn’t play around and the Cavs will take Game 4.
Neutral Analysis by Tamberlyn Richardson
Why Celtics Won:
The game ball goes to Brad Stevens who out coached Tyronn Lue in this one. Stevens wizardry was all over this win. Every player he tapped to play (including when to have them enter the game) delivered. His direction in time outs all translated into scoring plays. Further, his Game 3 adjustments paid dividends, although LeBron James going cold from the field for the first time since the playoffs began was an equal factor. The latter offered Stevens the ability to pay greater defensive attention to LeBron’s ‘others’ while forcing the king to shoot.
Even Stevens sideline (and locker room) speeches were on the mark. Lue failed to keep his team engaged whereas Stevens reminded his squad to take things a play at a time and not focus on the officiating.
Entering the series the Cavaliers held the decisive starting 5 “stars” edge while the Celtics had the depth edge. However, with James playing otherworldly through the first two games the depth edge had been erased. This was not the case in Game 3 as Boston’s reserves outscored the Cavs 32–9.
Why Cavaliers Lost:
LeBron James had an off game — period.
All this did was serve to point out James’ influence on his squad. An off LeBron night relegates the Cavaliers to being on par with any other Eastern Conference playoff team. This despite Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson doing their very best (and arguably both producing their best postseason performances) to keep the Cavs ahead and deliver the win.
Recalling Game 2, LeBron James tweaked his knee or ankle grimacing afterward. Is it possible this led to his poor shooting performance? If so, it may behoove Lue to not push James as the bigger picture (finals) looms.
Other factors which stand out in the loss were the Celtics besting the Cavs in several key categories:
- Assists: Celtics 28 to Cavaliers 21
- Steals: Celtics 10 to Cavaliers 5 (hustle was the name of the game here)
- Turnovers: Celts 9 to Cavs 16 (after Boston turned the ball over 21 times in Game 2 this was a big improvement)
- Free Throws: Celts 12 to Cavs 36 (this falls under the what the heck category as the Cavs tripled the Celts trip to the stripe)
- For the first time in the series the Celtics registered a higher field goal percent ( 46.2 to 45.7)
- Ditto for efficiency from the perimeter (45 to 41 percent)
- After producing 8 and 24 fast break points in games 1 and 2 respectively, the Cavs managed just 2
Game 4 Adjustment:
Assuming LeBron James isn’t nursing some sort of lingering injury look for him to be far more aggressive. Even if he continues his Game 3 cold streak, he’ll drive the ball and instigate more ball movement. Conversely, if the loss was more a matter of taking the Celtics for granted, don’t expect James or Lue to allow a lack of focus in Game 4. Specifically, James, Irving and Love need to live up their Big 3 moniker and lead by example. The trio all but disappeared in the second half. In the third quarter Love hit 4 free throws, Irving scored 6 points and James scored 3 points (a field goal and a free throw). The final frame was even more dismal with Irving scoring 6 points, Love 2 and James was held scoreless.
The Celtics need to find the proper balance between being aggressive and fouling. Allowing the Cavaliers to get to the line three times as much isn’t a winning recipe. For example, Tristan Thompson shot 11 free throws in the second half of Game 3 (one less than the entire Celtics game total).
Stevens appears to have found an answer for how to handle LeBron James in the pick and roll. Boston should continue to utilize this technique. The worry is whether James will decide to quicken his offense not allowing Boston’s guards to recover as they did in Game 3. Given that likelihood, Stevens will need to have something up his sleeve to counter James’ response. Still, clogging passing lanes, cutting off Cleveland’s shooters and letting James drive to score is preferable to copious perimeter scores which allows all the Cavs to get in a rhythm.
Finally, Boston moved the ball much better in the second half of Game 3 then they have the entire series. They’ll need to replicate that effort moving forward.
Game 4 Prediction:
An interesting side note which no doubt will become part of the Celtics’ narrative is what they accomplished without Isaiah Thomas playing. Throughout the season his offense carried the Celts, but his defense was an issue. In season the ends justified the means.
Conversely, in the post season the Celtics continue to play better defensively, but now they are also scoring more without Thomas on the floor and garnering a positive differential. Certainly I’m not suggesting the Celtics are better off without Thomas, or that his injury isn’t a loss to the squad. That said, with Danny Ainge preparing to possibly draft Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball with the top draft pick in June, could these results fuel the fire for Thomas to be dangled as trade bait prior to his free agency in the summer of 2018?
As for Game 4, it’s a good new — bad news situation. The good news is Boston rediscovered their pride and no longer view the Cavaliers as invincible. The bad news is LeBron James won’t let his squad replicate the lackadaisical second half effort of Game 3. This all adds up to the Cavs winning to take a stranglehold on the series.
