Dallas Mavericks Offseason In Review
The NBA offseason was full of interesting storylines and acquisitions. Did the Dallas Mavericks make any notable moves?
The Dallas Mavericks just came off their first losing season since the 1999–00 season. The 2016–17 campaign was filled with injuries, which led to opportunities for players such as point guard Yogi Ferrell and guard Seth Curry.
Even in a down year, though, the silver lining was player development. The only notable unrestricted free agent was Dirk Nowitzki. The Mavericks headed into the offseason with about $20 million in cap room. Nerlens Noel, the center the Mavericks acquired at the trade deadline, was (is) the sole restricted free agent on the roster.
Needs:
First of all, the Mavericks’ front office has yet to lock up Nerlens Noel for the long term. The Mavericks are known to not leak information to the public, especially when it comes to contract disputes. With that said, even the tightest of ships can show cracks.
Last July (per Dallas Morning News and Sportsday writer Eddie Sefko), Noel’s agent Happy Walters spoke on the lack of success regarding contract negotiations between the Mavericks and Noel. Before free agency started, there were assumptions of restricted free agents (such as Noel) getting max deals, but a year after the infamous 2016 free agency, the water ran dry. The fact that the league’s salary cap isn’t as high as previously projected didn’t make matters any better for players hoping for a big payday.
Noel’s health has been an issue since entering the league, which is probably one of the main factors the Mavericks are so cautious with “overpaying” him. The Mavericks dodged a bullet last year with Chandler Parsons, and so far, are right in their judgment. Either way, the Mavericks are lacking a legitimate rim protector and athletic center on the roster. Dallas still has the qualifying offer in hand if both parties can’t come to a decision. It’s not a question of whether Noel will return — it’s more of a question for how long.
Dallas is in dire need of a backup power forward to give Dirk Nowitzki a much needed rest; one that can avoid being a detriment to the ultimate goal of winning basketball games. Dwight Powell is supposed to be that kind of player, but unfortunately, is not living up to his contract. Now, of course, you can argue that contract was an overreaction on the front office’s part. However, that argument is for another day.
Besides the imminent Nerlens Noel signing, it doesn’t look like the Mavericks are seeking much else in the free agent market. However, look for Harrison Barnes to play power forward. Per Basketball Reference, in his 2016–17 campaign, Barnes spent 60 percent of his time at power forward. And, the Mavericks’ best lineups featured Barnes at the four. Addition by subtraction, if you will.
Key Losses:
There were no notable players that were lost in either free agency nor via trade. Power forward Jarod Uthoff, a late season signing, was traded to the Houston Rockets for cash considerations on June 29. The Mavericks waived Nicolas Brussino July 20.
Key Additions:
In the first time in what seems like eons ago, the Mavericks made a key addition via the NBA Draft. 2017 might actually have some redeeming qualities after all. With the ninth overall pick, Dallas drafted North Carolina State point guard, Dennis Smith Jr.
NBA Summer League usually isn’t something I give much attention to. With the respect-demanding play of DSR this past summer, many eyes have for sure shifted to the Mavericks rookie. So much that many gambling websites are giving Smith Jr a realistic chance to win Rookie of the Year over Lakers point guard Lonzo Ball.
Before the NBA Draft, there were numerous rumors from credible writers that stated the Mavericks were favorites to land then-free agent point guard Jrue Holiday.
Holiday could have potentially been the player to fill the void at starting point guard — a position no one has held consistently for the Mavericks since Jason Kidd donned №5.
That was then, this is now.
Dennis Smith Jr is the gift that accidentally got dropped off at the wrong address. In most drafts, he would have been the first pick; if not, at least the second. If it weren’t for rumors of Smith Jr “having a bad attitude” and an ACL injury he suffered in high school, he would have at least been a top five pick in the draft.
Instead, eight teams surprisingly passed on him. Fortunately for Dallas, this guaranteed them a point guard on a cheaper contract, plus a player with more upside than someone of the likes of Jrue Holiday. A beautiful tragedy, with what feels like a fairytale beginning for Dallas and Smith Jr.
Projected Depth Chart:
- Starting five: Dennis Smith Jr, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki, Nerlens Noel
- Sixth man: Seth Curry
Look for JJ Barea, Yogi Ferrell and Devin Harris to get a good chunk of minutes when the inevitable rookie wall hits Dennis Smith Jr.
The Mavericks ran a lot of small ball last season. Powell should get some minutes, but it seems like he has one foot out the door. Don’t be surprised if he falls further behind on the depth chart.
Best offseason move: Re-signing Dirk Nowitzki
Dirk Nowtizki is the epitome of loyalty. In a world where sports and loyalty don’t necessarily coexist, Nowitzki is of a rare breed. The Mavericks and Nowitzki have played this song and dance for his last few contracts. Dallas will pay him a decent contract one term, then the next contract, give him what is left from when the free agency race is settled.
This year, in what seemed like no time at all, both sides agreed to a two-year deal, worth $10 million. This was the ultimate gesture from Nowitzki to the city of Dallas. Even with him coming off one of the worst seasons of his career, he is still worth way more than what he agreed to. Keeping a starter for that kind of money is definitely one of the better signings of the offseason.
Worst offseason move: Not reaching new contract agreement with Nerlens Noel
Ironically, the worst move of the Mavericks’ offseason is the one they haven’t made — signing Nerlens Noel. The Mavericks won’t technically lose him this season if they don’t sign him to a long-term deal, but they could lose him mentally in the long run.
Dallas knew the risk of trading for a player like Noel. His injuries have been well-documented to this point. The Mavericks didn’t give up much in the trade for Noel, however, and they are in desperate need for a mobile big who can also defend. This is the deal they might have to bite the bullet on and have faith in their respected training staff. If not, they’ll have to once again chase their runaway train — that is, the “superstar” big man in 2018 free agency.
Season Goals and Expectations:
Injuries played a key role in the grueling 2016–17 season. With the same core, plus a rookie point guard, this should be a better season for the Mavericks. Rick Carlisle-coached teams typically have players that exceed the media’s expected results — here’s looking at you, Raymond Felton. It’s hard to gauge the final results of this roster for that very reason.
Dallas finished with 33 wins last season, and in doing so, finished 11th in the Western Conference. Considering all the injuries the team suffered last season, that is not an awful record. With a healthy core, I could see them winning anywhere from 38 to 40 games. Carlisle has done more with less before; see the 2012–2013 season. The roster does not look like a Western Conference playoff team, but at the end of the day, games still have to be played.
Dwight Powell is at a crossroads in his career. This is the point where he either steps up or finds himself on another NBA team; possibly even overseas. These words may sound harsh, but one look at the last 20 games of the season, and it’s clear his minutes changed sporadically. Additionally, with Harrison Barnes having success at power forward, it lessens Powell’s role.
Powell has shown flashes of being a rotational player, but if his inconsistent play continues, it’ll consequently force Carlisle’s hand. A pick-and-roll combination of him and Smith Jr could be fun to watch, but will Powell get enough minutes to play with the potential Rookie of the Year point guard? If Powell can improve on his 28 percent 3-point shooting, it would immensely help his chances of staying in good graces with the team. Even if he isn’t a physical presence down low, a stretch big fits well in today’s NBA.
Even after suffering that ill-timed Achilles injury during the 2014–15 season, Wesley Matthews is still the Ironman. He has missed only 13 games in the past two seasons. Not all of those games he missed were from an actual injury; some were the product of rest.
When a player suffers an injury of that sort, his lateral movement is what should take the greatest hit. Despite that theory, it’s Matthews’ shooting that has suffered the most, with his defense actually being the stronger part of his game the past two seasons. Ever since the Mavericks signed Matthews in the summer of 2015, he has shot 39 percent in field goal percentage and is two percent down from his 38 percent career 3-point average. These are lackluster numbers from a player who was supposed to be a 3-and-D kind of player.
One cause of his low shooting is his lack of success near the rim. Within three feet of the rim, Matthews only shot 55 percent. From 3 to 10 feet, he finished at 37 percent. Very troubling stats, but nonetheless, adding a point guard like Dennis Smith Jr should at least give him less pressure to create offense. If Matthews could find his shooting mojo and finish with at least his career shooting averages, then it’ll be a redeemed season pertaining to his individual success.
Win Projection: 40–42 wins.
Offseason Grade: B+
After the lone championship year in 2011, the Mavericks were chasing marquee names in free agency, only to strike out every time. This year, they didn’t even put their names in the hat knowing the situation they’re in is different than past seasons.
The front office drafting Dennis Smith Jr gives them at least a low B when it came to my grading scale. The fact they didn’t trade the pick was a plus in itself. Re-signing Nowitzki gave it another boost. A deal like that is to be commended in this day and age of players wanting max money, even if they’re not “max level players.”
The addition of power forward Josh McRoberts is viewed as a salary dump in the Heat’s case. By getting rid of A.J. Hammons, the trade makes more sense for the Mavericks in the long term. This saved them around $1.3 million for next season, when the Mavericks will seemingly be more active in free agency. The only glaring flaw of this offseason is not yet having reached a long-term deal with Nerlens Noel.
