Deciphering The Talent & Value Of Julius Randle
The Lakers have a decision ahead this summer. Julius Randle has undoubted talent, but how much is he worth to LA’s future?
Rebuilding is fun. It’s almost become sexy for struggling fans in the NBA, as teams bottom out as hard as they can in search of a future brighter than their current standing. It’s all about what’s ahead for the team and their fans, as organizations distract the fanbase from the currently terminal state of their team.
As long as you haven’t Brooklyn’d yourself and Billy King’d your way into a decade of mediocrity (sorry Nets fans), a team will spend a few seasons plundering through the lottery in search of a collection of young talent, hopefully spearheaded by that guy.
Philadelphia is the obvious model where it has taken place via this method. Spending years gathering assets and trading anyone of value in return for future assets, Sam Hinkie was a pariah as he strived for the franchise superstar. If Joel Embiid’s body allows it, he’ll be that guy with a fun 1b star in Ben Simmons, who might himself be that guy in his own right. Around them will be a fun collection of talent and cap space to build with.
After years of resistance to rebuilding, the Los Angeles Lakers took that route. Mitch Kupchak struck out in free agency with the big fish time and again, but perhaps his legacy will be his understatedly good work in the Draft in his last few seasons as Lakers GM:
- 2014: Julius Randle, pick 7. Jordan Clarkson, pick 46 (via Washington for cash considerations).
- 2015: D’Angelo Russell, pick 2. Larry Nance, pick 27. Anthony Brown, pick 34.
- 2016: Brandon Ingram, pick 2. Ivica Zubac, pick 32.
Brown aside with a second round flyer, that’s some good youth roster management. Heading into the summer however, it’s the first man on that list who is the cause of intrigue; Julius Randle. A man effectively in his second season after an injury sidelined him for 99 percent of his first, Randle is a seemingly unique talent.
The former Kentucky player came into the league highly touted as a scoring and rebounding machine, but his “tweener” like status and inability to stretch the floor like a modern four meant he also had question marks. The broken tibia only made those questions linger as he was sidelined, but he bounced back in his second season posting 11.3ppg, 10.2rpg and 1.8apg in what stood effectively as a rookie campaign.
His talent is undoubted, but was Randle a “stats on a bad team” guy, or did the future hold something brighter for the forward? Draymond Green seemed to think so per the OC Register’s Mark Medina:
“I think he can. I also think he has the potential to be better (than me),” Green said. “With the God-given gifts he has, he has the potential to be better. I’ll continue to grow. I’ll never stop working and I’ll continue to get better. But what is he, 21? That’s a lot of time to continue to grow.”
High praise, but it also heightens expectations in what might be the toughest market to play rivalled only by New York. For a young player, that carries a burden of expectation.
That being said, can a player like Randle survive in the modern NBA?
In the era where shooting comes at a premium in essentially all five positions (particularly one to four), questions remain on whether Randle’s game can expand beyond where it is.
Obvious answer; Randle is essentially a player with two seasons of experience under his belt. At age 22, he has plenty of room to grow. Draymond Green shot 38 percent from the field and 30 percent from three in his first two seasons, so there’s hope. The only difference is the volume of shots the two take from certain areas, look at Green’s chart by comparison.
Randle doesn’t take threes, and with the Lakers tanking harder than any team in the league it begs the question why he isn’t experimenting. If the Lakers are truly “finding out what they have”, it makes sense to do so.
It might be however that Randle offers something different and even more modern than the shooting he needs to add to his game over time — playmaking. The likes of the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs have utilized having five passers or to even fuller extent playmakers on the floor. The mismatches, confusion and challenges it creates are becoming the way to move forward.
It’s a big reason the Oklahoma City Thunder decided to trade a player like Serge Ibaka. A unique stretch four who is also a 3-and-D threat, Ibaka’s lack of passing ultimately led to his own frustration in Oklahoma City and eventually his demise and trade to Orlando last offseason. The Thunder’s inability to utilize their bigs as playmakers were targeted by the swarming Warriors defense, it led to turnovers which fed into their deadly transition game.
It was a lesson to both the Thunder and teams around the league that the way forward moved far beyond deep shooting. Not every team can be Houston or Cleveland with a one man offense in James Harden/LeBron James and endless shooting surrounding that player, they have to find their own way to win in a modern climate dominated by the NBA’s elite.
That’s where Randle can carve a career out for himself whilst refining his currently raw shooting and defense as his game and career ages. His passing has been the most significant development of his second healthy NBA season, where he’s shown some great flashes. After only having 5+ assists three times in 2015–16, he’s done it nineteen times in 2016–17. That includes a surprising three triple-doubles, where he simply stuffed the stat sheet:
- 17 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists against the Nets in November.
- 19 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists against the Grizzlies in January.
- 13 points, 18 rebounds and 10 assists against the Mavericks this month.
His assist rate has jumped from 11 percent last season to 20.6 percent this year, as it appears Luke Walton sees a little bit of Green in him as well. A do it all forward with the skills to improve even further and round out his game. Here’s a list of forwards/centers to have four triple doubles before their 150th game and 23rd birthday: Lamar Odom, Nikola Jokic, Chris Webber, Julius Randle.
The forward is so much fun in transition. Walton has clearly a mandate for him to pick the ball up and run, and as soon as he rebounds the ball or recovers it defensively, he’s gone.
Randle doesn’t have tunnel vision a lot of young post players has. He always has his eyes up waiting for a pass, even if it’s a simple post dump off. Unlike a lot of post-scoring bigs, Randle is unselfish and happy to make the right pass.
Even better is that Randle’s head is not only up at all times, it’s on a swivel. How many young big men, or big men in general can make this pass so cleanly to a cutter?
With young players, there are always holes in their game. Shooting can be worked on, team defense can be learned and adapted to. Randle may not become Draymond Green, but he’s well on his way to becoming a very good player in his own right.
So what does that mean for his future with Los Angeles? Randle becomes eligible for an early extension this summer, and his price is a point of intrigue. Does he fit with their core going forward, and how does his game meld with the team long term?
16 Wins A Ring’s CBA & Salary Cap Expert Keith P. Smith wrote about the possibility of a Randle extension recently in a piece for Real GM, and it gives a good hint to the Lakers positioning and Randle’s heading into this summer:
The challenge is that while Randle does a lot of things well, he doesn’t excel in any one area. And the Lakers have to consider his fit with D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram and what they hope will be another high pick in the 2017 NBA Draft.
Extension Prediction: No extension if the Lakers keep their pick in 2017. Four years/$70 million if LA loses the pick. This one is a little complicated. If Los Angeles loses their pick in 2017, they also lose their pick in 2019. That would leave the Lakers a little short on young talent. That alone could drive them to keep Randle. If they get to keep the pick and can add another young player, they can let him get to restricted free agency in the summer of 2018 and make a decision at that point. It also gives them another year of development for Ingram and Larry Nance Jr. as well.
This is where the rebuild gets interesting. When extensions approach and you have a plethora of young guys and assets to decide between, a decision has to be made.
Randle is starting to make his case as a good NBA player however. Whether he is extended this summer or not, he’s already playing himself into a nice payday when the extension would actually kick in come the summer of 2018. It might not be in Los Angeles considering their precarious state of affairs, but Randle’s place in the NBA is secured.
All statistics utilized via Basketball-Reference.com and video via 3ball.io unless otherwise explicity stated.
