Dissecting The Minnesota Timberwolves Path To Contention
With two core players in house and roster tweaks to be made, what is the realistic time frame for the Timberwolves to become contenders?
During his five year tenure as head coach in Chicago Tom Thibodeau never had a losing season. But, the winning was dampened by constant battles with upper management which culminated in an ugly exit. Clearly, it was time for Thibodeau to find a new challenge.
The former assistant to Doc Rivers and Jeff Van Gundy had rebuilt Chicago into a defensive stalwart and in their prime, one of the best teams in the NBA. However injuries to key players along with the rise of super teams, such as LeBron James and the Miami Heat, proved to be mountains not even Thibs could drag his teams across.
After a year long hiatus Thibodeau was hired by the Minnesota Timberwolves to be their head coach as well as their president of basketball operations, hence giving him full control of his team.
In his first season as head coach Thibodeau and the T-Wolves struggled, finishing 31–51. It was a record that surprised nobody. Minnesota has a young team, which includes two potential superstars in Andrew Wiggins and Kart Anthony-Towns and winning will take some time. Rome wasn’t build in a day and neither will Minnesota’s path to a potential NBA Championship be.
Every season has to be viewed as a building block and taking a step in the right direction. Even with improvement from season to season, an important question has to be asked when considering Minnesota’s future.
How long until they become contenders in the vaunted Western Conference?
If there is one rock solid fact the Timberwolves can hang their hats on, it’s that they boast two players who are steady building blocks for the future. Two pillars who are the face of the franchise moving forward. It’s the duo of Karl Anthony-Towns and Andrew Wiggins.
Anthony-Towns, who was selected out of Kentucky back in the 2015 NBA Draft, is on his way to becoming the next dominant big man in the league. In just his second year in the NBA, KAT averaged 25.7 points and 12.7 rebounds per game while shooting 54.2 percent from the field. In a time where small ball and point forwards are running havoc on the league, Towns has displayed he can adapt and even expand his game.
He’s slowly becoming a more consistent three-point shooter, bumping up his attempts from 1.2 to 3.3 while maintaining a rise in his efficiency. His ability to catch the ball beyond the free-throw line and take guys off the dribble is proving to be a strong point in his game. He’s only played two seasons in the NBA and it’s clear Minnesota will go as far as Anthony-Towns takes them.
If Anthony-Towns is Batman, then Wiggins is his Robin and a good one at that. Like Towns, Wiggins has gotten better in each of his three seasons in the NBA. Last season he averaged 23.6 points per game with an effective field goal percent of 48.4. He’s a great athlete and uses his length (7'0 wingspan) to help him score, or even dunk, over taller defenders.
There has been a lot of skepticism surrounding Wiggins’s game, particularly when it comes to what he hasn’t been able to do on the court. Skills such as his ability to find teammates for better shots or defense has been an issue with the former number one overall pick. Last season, Wiggins earned a defensive box plus/minus score of -2.9, the worst of his career so far. He has a career average of 2.1 and his free-throw percentage needs to improve as well (76 percent last season).
There is still hope Wiggins can improve as an all-around player. He’s only 23 years old and under a coach like Thibodeau, his defensive awareness is sure to improve. Even with his current skill set and limitations, Wiggins is a pretty valuable player for Minnesota. If he can improve the other parts of his game, it could fast-forward the Timberwolves progression towards being a playoff team.
Outside of Towns and Wiggins, there are questions about the pieces Minnesota currently have assembled around them. Starting with Zach LaVine.
The 2016–17 season was looking like a promising year for LaVine. The former UCLA Bruin was enjoying a breakout season and appeared to be staking his claim as the third piece in the Timberwolves core. Already possessing the jumping out of the gym leaping ability, LaVine developed as a scorer this past season.
LaVine averaged 18.9 points on a 54.4 effective field goal percent and started to show signs as a three-point threat (shot 38.7 percent from deep). Then disaster struck and LaVine tore his ACL halfway through the season. The injury was a tragic end to his season and it could potentially bring a dark cloud over the future of his career.
A lot of LaVine’s game is based on his explosiveness and athleticism. A torn ACL takes a lot out of a player and it will certainly affect his game. No matter what, LaVine will have to adjust his game and it’s a shame he will be forced to do so. We have seen previously what ACL tears can do to players explosiveness and how it can alter their careers moving forward (Derrick Rose).
LaVine has to try and develop more as a shooter and make it a more prominent part of his game. Whether he does improve or not will determine how much of an impact player he can be in the future. There will be parts of the explosiveness still left with LaVine, but he still has to expand his game. The positive thing is he has the potential to do so.
Another position of question is at point guard. The Timberwolves drafted Kris Dunn with the 5th pick of the draft to be the point guard of the future. Yet, after his initial season, it is clear he still has a lot of work to do. Though he’s already shown to be a great defender, offensively Dunn has been poor and given he was a lottery pick, it’s right for fans to be skeptical about his potential. Especially when he’s a negative on one end of the floor.
Dunn was a fantastic player at Providence and has shown flashes of being a skilled two-way player. If he wants to be the future starter for Minnesota, he needs to be able to play well on both sides of the court. There is obviously still time for him to grow but Dunn’s presence also brings up another sticky situation the Timberwolves must deal with: How do they value Ricky Rubio?
Rubio’s status on this Timberwolves team is another enigma within itself. It’s a dilemma which divides T-Wolves Twitter to its core. He certainly has its positives with his ability to run the point fluidly to go along with his amazing passing instincts. There are also negatives to his game. Such as his lack of a jump shot and sketchy defense at times, which makes the question of keeping him as the starter even harder to answer.
Rubio compliments this Minnesota team, a place where he doesn’t have to be the guy offensively and will certainly distribute the ball around. Yet, there are still concerns whether he can still be effective as the Timberwolves progress towards the future. Especially when it comes to the lack of shooting. This is particularly troublesome when Wiggins or Towns find him for kick-out situations.
As great as Rubio is, it’s worrisome to have your point guard only shoot 37.5 percent from the field for his career. Given the way the league is trending towards three-point shooting and Dunn’s potential development in the next couple of years, Rubio could be on his way out of Minnesota.
With the Golden State Warriors running through everyone in the NBA with ease, teams are starting to build for the future. A future where most GMs hope, they can construct a team good enough to even compete with the Warriors let alone beat them. But, that’s four to five years in the future and who knows what may happen.
This T-Wolves team is young enough, and talented enough, for management to be patient. KAT and Wiggins are both under 23 as are LaVine and Dunn. Even Rubio will be nearing the end of his prime in 2022. Suffice to say, it’s tough to project how many years this development will take.
Regardless, before any progression is made, Minnesota has to make the leap from lottery-bound squad to playoff contender. Then it will take a couple of years before they become one of the top teams in the West, assuming everything goes smoothly. A reasonable guess is it will take four years for Minnesota to become real contenders. We may see a future where Anthony-Towns and Wiggins are standing toe to toe with best of the NBA. Until then, enjoy the ride Timberwolves fans.
