Doing Too Much? No, But Westbrook & Oklahoma City Search For Balance
People have been having fun at the Thunder’s expense with statistics lately. There’s plenty that support them, however.
Kent Brockman: Mr. Simpson, how do you respond to the charges that petty vandalism such as graffiti is down eighty percent, while heavy sack beatings are up a shocking nine hundred percent?
Homer Simpson: Aw, you can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forfty percent of all people know that.
Talking down historical achievements has become something of in vogue in the NBA. In a season where statistical dominance is prevalent across the league, the talking down of significant numerical achievement has moved far beyond just the anti-analytics crowd.
There has become a serious need to explain the miraculous, as if there was some rational explanation to talk down what is some amazing performances. Russell Westbrook has 33 triple doubles? “Out of this world? Surely not. There must be a reason!”
Instead, it’s just something amazing and historical we should relish and enjoy as something that might be seen as an outlier in the future.
From James Harden’s efficiency and astonishing assist total, to LeBron James’ seemingly never-declining athleticism, to Isaiah Thomas’ fourth quarter dominance, or the incredible all-round specimen that is Kawhi Leonard — it might just be we are in a transcendent era of basketball where all players’ peaks are coming together at the right time, and their teams are maximizing their output in a way we haven’t seen prior.
Make no mistake, Russell Westbrook is not a perfect player. He has improved far ahead of what anybody expected — particularly without his former running mate Kevin Durant, but “Bad Russ” still comes to the surface. It’s not that he becomes a bad player by any measure, but his decisions don’t always fully represent what he can offer to a team. Take the Thunder’s 4-game losing streak: Westbrook didn’t struggle; 45 points, 8.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. No triple doubles, however.
There’s a reason the Thunder are 27–6 when Westbrook registers a triple double, as opposed to 11–23 when he doesn’t. His playmaking and involving his teammates are key to the Thunder’s success, and that doesn’t mean his scoring isn’t helpful.
That being said, when Russell Westbrook has scored 46 points or more, the Thunder are 1–6 this season. That’s awful. His fourth quarter takeovers and incredible clutch play aside, that can’t happen for a whole game every single night. Role players lose rhythm and their feel for the ball, and they are unable to make something happen when they finally do get touches.
There’s also a line to be drawn because when Westbrook has scored between 35–45 points this season, Oklahoma City is in fact a stunning 14–3. “Doing too much?” Far from it.
Take this excerpt from Thunder guru Royce Young, who wrote this in the aftermath of Sam Presti’s fleecing of the Chicago Bulls at the trade deadline (per ESPN):
Westbrook generates everything for OKC’s offense, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. His 42.4 usage rate — the highest the league has seen since Kobe Bryant in 2005–06 — doesn’t worry the Thunder. It’s about who’s around Westbrook when he’s using all those possessions that they care about.
The Thunder have intently studied the way they play with Westbrook as the lone focal point, trying to understand what will complement him best: what kind of shots Westbrook creates most, what kind of players excel alongside him, what kind of offense is successful and what kind is not. Westbrook has a distinct style, and before they could find pieces, they wanted to try to understand how those pieces could fit in.
Conversion: the Thunder understand their roster and star player, and while it isn’t the finished article, they are learning how best to utilize it all.
There’s a big reason the Thunder don’t concern themselves with Westbrook’s usage rate. Physically, they know he can handle it, and he takes offense at the notion that he can’t. They also know when he’s locked in to what he needs to do to help the team win, they do it at an absurd rate compared to expectations. Oklahoma City is 8–20 when Russell Westbrook has less than 10 assists this season, but 30–9 when he has 10 or more.
Even the furore around his turnovers can be ill-conceived. Westbrook is not Chris Paul — he will try passes that have a high element of risk, and they are justified because of his increasingly good vision and reading of the play. It’s what tees up such easy baskets for his teammates. There are downsides, but it has its upsides too. Here’s a fun quirk — Oklahoma City is 11–15 when Westbrook has 4 turnovers or less this season. When he has 5 or more turnovers, the Thunder are 27–14.
Westbrook’s a one-man riot act, and he causes far more good than harm in his pursuit of victory. Because of his lack of convention, it’ll always cause traditionalists to have their doubts and sometimes be more than simply critical of him. That’s all part of the rollercoaster, however.
It’s getting other players involved to the right extent and finding the correct formula that helps them succeed. Victor Oladipo is becoming increasingly comfortable as number two and backcourt partner, and his recent time out with injury has helped heal his ailing back and wrist issues. In the four games since his return, he’s averaging 19.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.5 steals per game. He’s also passed the 20-point mark in three of those games. That’s crucial because when he does that, the Thunder are 11–1. With a sometimes middling offense, they need the cogs around Westbrook to function in order to win.
That includes Steven Adams, who has struggled throughout February and most of March so far. Lack of touches on offense seemingly play a huge role in that, and he has been a step slower on defense, to say the least. On a team with severe lack of shooting, the Thunder must get their big men touches and points to open space around them.
When Adams takes 10 or more field goal attempts, the Thunder are 18–8 and when he scores 15 or more points, they are 14–7. Fellow stache brother Enes Kanter has really taught the rest of the league his true value this season, and his unfortunate absence before the All-Star break only emphasized that. When the Turk logs a double-double, the Thunder are 11–4, and when he scores 20 points or more, they are 9–3.
Oklahoma City has the tools to thrive inside and win the rebound battle, which they’ve done in 72 percent of this season’s games, and they are 31–17 in those situations. All statistics listed are not equal, and there are holes to be poked in them, but there’s no denying there is a pattern here — when Westbrook is using the ball heavily for his own scoring production, balanced with involving his teammates, the Thunder become the best version of themselves.
Watching Westbrook go solo on the offensive end is fun, but it won’t translate to wins if he is doing it alone. A recent ESPN video pointed out that Westbrook does in fact average 11.3 assists at home, whilst posting 9.2 on the road. It was claimed that the Thunder scorekeepers must be becoming a little generous, but when looking deeper, that doesn’t make sense and frankly, doesn’t measure up.
Meanwhile, it also stems from the fact that his young teammates struggle on the road. Remember, the Thunder are 25–9 at home (5th in the NBA) and an abysmal 13–20 on the road (14th in the NBA). It’s not unusual for role players, particularly younger ones, to face difficulties on their travels.
The contrast is stark, and seemingly supporting evidence that it’s Westbrook’s teammates performing more favorably at home than it is the scorekeepers helping him out.
Another strange narrative that emerged from those videos, which have reigned ever since, is the talk of Westbrook’s “uncontested rebounds.” A design that the Thunder have used is asking their bigs to box out opponents so that it is their point guard who cleans up the boards. The automatic notion of this refers back to “stat-padding,” but for Oklahoma City, it serves a higher function.
Domantas Sabonis leaves the rebound for his star man. It allows Westbrook to launch in transition, whilst bigger defenders are already behind him, losing their breath trying to catch up. That extra second or so matters when you can get to the other end in the meantime. You can see the Lakers are aware of the need to get back in transition — how else do you stop Russell Westbrook getting to the rim?
If Sabonis catches that himself, lands, turns and then passes to Westbrook, the window of opportunity to lob the ball to Roberson and/or Abrines is gone, and that bucket doesn’t happen. The Thunder struggle in the half court and thrive on the break. It’s not a notion to increase Westbrook’s production; it’s to maximize his God-given talents.
A normal defensive rebound is no different. The entire defense is focused on Westbrook as he tears down the middle of the floor for the bucket. Meanwhile, Alex Abrines sneaks out to the three-point line for a transition opportunity. When you don’t have spacing due to a lack of shooters, creating open shots comes at a premium. Luckily, Westbrook creates his own form of gravity. The paint literally collapses at any sight of him charging towards it.
If you have potentially the greatest natural athlete not named LeBron James on your roster, wouldn’t you do everything to make the most of those skills?
Triple doubles are an increasingly common sight, with Russell Westbrook at the head of that charge. He’s heading for a historic, potentially MVP season. If what he was doing were simple to do, other players would indeed be doing it too, or would have done it already. They aren’t, and only one has in NBA history, so why are we so insistent on tearing it down?
This is all I can think of when I see people trying to tear down history. Facts, schmacts, huh?
All statistics used were via stats.nba.com unless otherwise stated. All video utilized via 3ball.io.
