EuroLeague Playoff Predictions
With an exciting set of EuroLeague playoff series in session, here are some predictions for how the series will pan out.
On Tuesday, April 18, the EuroLeague playoffs finally began, with Baskonia traveling to Moscow to take on CSKA. After an incredible regular season that was able to happen thanks to the new format, expect some of the best Euroleague playoff series you’ve ever seen, since we’ve got some incredible match-ups.
Before I get started with these predictions, I just want to point out that this hasn’t been my year for predictions. I thought Olympiacos would be a bottom-end playoff team, that Maccabi would be good and that Andrea Bargnani would play defense (okay, that last one was a joke). But last year, my playoff predictions were solid. I got three of the four Final Four teams correct (thanks Barcelona) and picked the correct teams for the championship game as well. I had Fenerbahce as my pick to win the championship though. I mean, was I really supposed to doubt Zeljko Obradovic in a championship game against choking-CSKA?
Basically, what I’m saying is that my picks are usually decent, but don’t use them to place your bets. Lose your money on your own the same way I’m going to lose my money on my own, okay? Now, let’s make some predictions.
1. Real Madrid vs 8. Dacka
Regular Season: Split 1–1, both teams won at home. Dacka won 81–68 in Round 12 and Real won 101–83 in Round 23.
Match-Up to Watch: Brad Wanamaker vs Sergio Llull. Both point guards are the stars of their respective teams and are the main reason their teams made it this far. In the Round 12 match-up between these two teams, Wanamaker dropped 27, his season-high, but Llull didn’t play. In the Round 23 match-up, Llull dropped 26 points and had eight assists. He also made six threes on only eight attempts. Wanamaker finished with 15 points, five rebounds and four assists.
These two tend to play well when they go up against each other, so expect this trend to continue. Llull will try to lead Real to a second EuroLeague title in three years, and Wanamaker will try to get himself the best NBA offer he can.
Prediction: Real Madrid sweeps the series, 3–0. Dacka has struggled with defensive consistency all year, so that has led to them having to shoot their way out of trouble. This strategy works against some teams since they have more firepower then a lot of teams they face, but they don’t have more firepower than Real.
Los Blancos is the best passing team in EuroLeague with an average of 20.6 assists per game, the best rebounding team with an average of 34 rebounds per game and the second-best offensive team with an average of 86.2 points per game. This doesn’t bode well for a we’ll just outscore them strategy, which is what Dacka will most likely do. Expect Real to win comfortably at home and for Dacka to fight in Game 3, but down the stretch, Real will get stops, and Dacka won’t.
2. CSKA Moscow vs 7. Baskonia
Regular Season: Split 1–1, both teams won at home. CSKA won 112–84 in Round 9. Baskonia won 79–78 in Round 26.
Match-Up to Watch: Shane Larkin versus the world. Okay, it’s not actually the world, but it’s pretty close. Every backcourt player for CSKA is a handful. Aaron Jackson is the best backup point guard in Europe, and that’s because he really shouldn’t be a backup. The same can be said for Cory Higgins, CSKA’s backup two. These two guys would start on basically any other team in Europe and probably have big roles. Instead, they’re stuck behind the best backcourt in Europe: Milos Teodosic and Nando De Colo. De Colo is the reigning MVP and reigning Final Four MVP, while Teodosic is in the MVP discussion this year.
Larkin, who’s Baskonia’s MVP, is going up against that. Now, it won’t be singlehandedly, because he does have help. Rodrigue Beaubois, Rafa Luz and Jaka Blazic are all good players who will certainly help in this series. But, expect CSKA to start Jackson, who will harass Larkin and really make him work for every bucket he gets. That’ll be a size mismatch for Larkin on the defensive end as well, since he’s 5-foot-11, and Jackson is 6-foot-3. When he’s not dealing with Jackson, he’ll have Teodosic or De Colo, who might be the two most offensively skilled players in Europe. Larkin’s going to get run into the ground every game. Look forward to watching him respond to that.
Prediction: CSKA sweeps the series, 3–0. I’ve loved watching Baskonia play this season and truly think if they had finished in a higher seed, they’d be the Final Four dark horse instead of Efes. Instead, they finished seventh. CSKA has too much to throw at Baskonia in this series. Expect them to control the perimeter and the post on both ends of the floor. Larkin will be drained after Game 1 and 2, and while one of those games along with GAme 3 might be close, CSKA will grind out the wins for the sweep. It should be very similar to their series with Zvezda last season. Baskonia will make them work, but CSKA will find a way.
3. Efes vs 6. Olympiacos
Regular Season: Split 1–1, both teams won at home. Olympiacos won 90–66 in Round 2. Efes won 77–69 in Round 29.
Match-Up to Watch: Literally, everything. There really isn’t one specific match-up to pick in this series, since both teams rely on a team effort to carry them to victory. We’re going to see pick-and-roll maestros Vassilis Spanoulis and Thomas Heurtel go at it. Then, Tyler Honeycutt and Kostas Papanikolaou, two of the most energetic players in Europe, will face off. And lastly, Khem Birch and Georgios Printezis will be banging bodies down low with Derrick Brown, Desahun Thomas and Bryant Dunston.
Prediction: HOT TAKE ALERT! GET READY! Efes in four! I’m going to stand by Efes as my Final Four dark horse. They have enough to take down Olympiacos. Efes played fantastic basketball to close out the season, can beat a team in multiple ways, and head coach Velimir Perasovic has been to the Final Four before. Olympiacos will try to slow the game down and beat Efes in the half-court, but Efes has the athleticism to defend in the half-court and enough offensive options to manufacture buckets in a slowed down game. If Olympiacos tries to open up and play faster, Efes will take them to school.
The real key for Efes to win this series though, is that they must steal one of the first two games. It’ll be difficult for them to win a huge Game 5 at the Peace and Friendship Stadium, especially not if it’s for the third consecutive win over the Reds.
Efes wins Game 1, loses Game 2, and then grab Games 3 and 4 at home to launch themselves into the Final Four.
4. Panathinaikos vs 5. Fenerbahce
Regular Season: Split 1–1, both teams won at home.* Panathinaikos won 81–70 in Round 11. Fenerbahce won 84–63 in Round 18.
*The fact that all four playoff match-ups consist of teams that split their regular season match-ups by both teams winning at home is a testament to just how competitive this season of Euroleague is.
Match-Up to Watch: Similar to the other Greece vs. Turkey playoff series, there are too many good match-ups to just pick one. Ioannis Bourousis and Ekpe Udoh are going to battle again, just like they did in last year’s Final Four.
Mike James is going to do Mike James things and school Bobby Dixon and Kostas Sloukas. Bogdan Bogdanovic will do much of the same for Fenerbahce, and Chris Singleton is going to bang down low with Fener’s plethora of bigs.
Prediction: Panathinaikos in five. Seriously, the home team will win every game in this series. All five games have potential to be historic Euroleague games. Zeljko has yet to win at the OAKA since leaving, and that likely won’t change. Singleton will show he’s the most unrecognized MVP candidate of all-time as he slows down Udoh in a Game 5 match-up that turns out to be the game of the season.
Even though it’s very likely at least one of these predictions are wrong, I’ll just throw in what I think would happen if they were all right.
- Real Madrid beats Panathinaikos fairly easily on a neutral court, and Luka Doncic claims he’s the best 18-year-old basketball player of all time, challenging LeBron. But instead, Lavar Ball thinks it’s an attack at his son, Lonzo, and it starts a whole new Doncic vs. Ball thing that lasts forever in the NBA. (Doncic would never really do that, but I can dream.)
- Efes leads for the first three quarters against CSKA, then chokes it away! The tables have turned for CSKA! Can they go back-to-back?
- No, Real wins the final 88–81. Othello Hunter eats Kyle Hines and Anthony Randolph dunks De Colo for the final basket of the game. In the immediate post-game press conference, Teodosic announces he’s going to sign with the Brooklyn Nets so he can make sure Linsanity 2.0 never happen.
