Finding John And Ringo: Examining The Surprisingly Robust “Rental” Market Of Paul George
With Paul George definitively out the door at season’s end, which teams should throw caution to the wind in pursuit of their own 2017 NBA version of the Beatles?
News broke on Sunday night (happy belated Father’s Day to all you Dads out there): Paul George has informed the Pacers he has no intentions of returning to Indiana after his current contract expires at the end of the upcoming season.
The disgruntled star has now left his team between a rock and a hard place. It’s well known George, 27, wants to play for his hometown Los Angeles Lakers, the team he grew up idolizing.
28 teams (let’s be honest here, Golden State, if called by Indiana would say no — thank you), now have to decide whether giving up premium assets (two first-round picks and a starting caliber player is Kevin Prichard’s asking price), is worth what may or may not be a one-year rental.
The Lakers, who know of George’s desire to play with them at season’s end, have no reason to give up anything now when they can get the superstar for free. By free, of course I mean for the low, low price of a max contract.
Despite the inherent flight risk after this season, the odds of Paul George staying in Indiana to finish out his contract seem nonexistent. There are also some teams out there where it’s a worthwhile gamble to get Paul George now and hope he re-signs after the season.
While nearly every team can muster up a starting caliber player and at least two first-round picks in exchange for George, most would be loathe to do so with next to no hope of enticing him to stay past the expiration of his current deal. The OKC Thunder, for example, would almost certainly trade Victor Oladipo and two first-round picks to Indiana to pair Paul George with Russell Westbrook. But, the chances of the Thunder winning and George staying in OKC would be next to zero.
All that being said, upon deep consideration of absurd hypothetical and an abundant use of ESPN’s Trade Machine, which as we know, is the foremost tool in any armchair general manager’s arsenal, I was able to unearth a surprisingly robust market for a Paul George rental, with each team having at least a slight chance at retaining his services at year’s end.
One important factor that must be considered: if the Pacers trade Paul George, he becomes ineligible for the Player Designation Exception regardless if he is named to an All-NBA team next season. However, his Bird Rights will be traded with him, meaning that his new team will be able to offer him a five year maximum contract worth roughly 177 million dollars. If George wants to leave for the Lakers, the most LA can offer him is four years worth roughly 132 million dollars.
Honorable Mentions
The Minnesota TimberPups
Adding Paul George to the already talented young core of Karl Anthony-Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine, is enough to make any NBA fan’s mouth water. The odds of George wanting to weather the harsh Minnesota winters when sunny LA (who has a not-as-promising, but still promising young core) is calling him, are close to zero.
The Philadelphia 76ers
The Process would truly be complete if George were to join Embiid, Fultz (presumably) and Ben Simmons. Unfortunately, the questionable fit and a timeline that doesn’t quite mesh the right way make this but a pipe dream only livable in the world of NBA 2K. Excuse me while I fire up my PS4 real quick…
The New York Knicks
A core of Melo, D-Rose, Noah, Paul George and Kristaps Porzingins!!! LOL, just kidding, even the players on the Knicks already don’t want to be there. Except for maybe Noah.
The Top Eight
Houston Rockets
Houston, under coach Mike D’Antoni, ran up and down the league behind a barrage of 3-pointers in the 2016–17 season. James Harden had a rebirth after an off year and will likely finish second in the league’s MVP voting for the second time in the last three years.
Despite this, the Rockets are in desperate need of a second star, made absolutely abundantly evident when they got waxed by the Spurs in the second round of the Western Conference Playoffs. Paul George would be a great fit in Houston’s fast-paced offense, and his 39.3 3-point field goal percentage would mesh perfectly with the “For the love of God, shoot, shoot, shoot” mentality of the Rockets.
Houston’s biggest issue is going to be finding the requisite assets to acquire George. Any package they can offer, without totally dismantling the core of their team, pales in comparison to what other teams can offer. A distinct advantage in Houston’s favor is they’re under the cap, which means they don’t have to match salaries in order to trade for Paul George.
Why PG could consider staying:
Playing with James Harden would generate a ton of quality looks for Paul George and playing under Mike D’Antoni would see his offensive numbers surge. Add to the fact that Texas doesn’t have a state tax, meaning George would see more money of his max contract if he were to stay put and not go to LA.
Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard has made his desire to bring Paul George to the Pacific Northwest known. Adding PG would make the Trail Blazers one of the more elite teams in the NBA.
A core of Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Paul George and the Bosnian Beast Jusuf Nurkic is scintillating to think about. The biggest hindrance would be in convincing Indiana to take Allen Crabbe’s iffy contract back, along with whatever combination of draft picks and other players the Pacers would want. To my eye, Crabbe is the only player on the Blazers that the Pacers could have even a remote interest in (Evan Turner’s first go-around in Indiana didn’t quite work out) whose salary matches up with George’s. Perhaps literally any combination of Mo Harkless, Ed Davis, Meyers Leonard, Al-Farouq Aminu and Noah Vonleh would be more palatable for Indiana.
Regardless, outside of Nurkic, McCollum and Lillard, GM Neil Olshay shouldn’t hesitate to acquiesce to whatever Indiana wants to get for Paul George.
Why PG could consider staying:
Portland owner Paul Allen has shown he’s not afraid to spend money in the pursuit of making his team a contender. Unfortunately, most of the money spent hasn’t exactly worked out just yet. Playing with Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic would be the best core Paul George has had around him since 2011–2012. Add to the fact Portland has one of the better fanbases in the NBA and a fellow superstar who’s been very vocal about playing alongside him, and it would be difficult to see Paul George spurn the Blazers for LA after a season.
At worst for the Blazers, should they get Paul George and he decides to leave after a year, Portland would have shed around 20 million dollars off their insanely high salary sheet.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Once it became abundantly clear that Cleveland couldn’t compete with the Warriors in the Finals, the Paul George-Kevin Love trade rumors spread like wildfire through NBA Twitter.
The biggest problem is Cleveland can only realistically offer Kevin Love, being totally devoid of any sort of tradable assets. Which shouldn’t exactly be a problem for Indiana: Kevin Love is still one of the better offensive players and rebounders in the NBA.
Swapping Paul George for Kevin Love alongside LeBron James and Kyrie Irving can go one of two ways. Either the two-way play of George is enough to get Cleveland over the hump and defeat the Warriors in the Finals and Cleveland has a re-tooled superteam (just stop it LeBron, you’ve been on superteams before). Or, the Cavs still come up short in the Finals, and next year’s rumors of LeBron and PG leaving for LA together will burn Twitter to the ground.
Why PG could consider staying:
If Cleveland were to topple the Death Star Lineup in the Bay in next year’s Finals, or if LeBron were to decide to stay in Cleveland, he probably can convince George to stay in Cleveland with him and Kyrie. If not, Cleveland would be losing both Paul George and LeBron James.
Cleveland has to at least try to make some sort of an all-in type move to have any chance of keeping up with the Warriors in the Finals.
Miami Heat
The Heat finished the season as one of the best teams in the league after starting 11–30. They’ve already got some pieces in Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. They’re fairly limited in the amount of picks they can offer Indiana. However, they’ve got a few quality young players to make up for their lack of draft assets, in addition to the 14th pick in this year’s draft.
In addition, Miami should have just enough room to carve out enough space for another max contract player (read: Blake Griffin) after reaching an agreement to part ways with Chris Bosh and his 26 million dollar salary in addition to trading for Paul George.
Why PG could consider staying:
Reasons one, two, and three are all Pat Riley, who, at this point, is basically the NBA version of Don Corleone. Riley will drop all his rings on the table and make Paul George an offer he can’t refuse. Plus, Eric Spoelstra is one of the most respected coaches among the players of the NBA. Miami has a world-class staff (their players are always in the best shape of their lives), and the lack of a state tax in Florida makes seeing Paul George leave South Beach (should he arrive), difficult to imagine.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are among the most intriguing teams in the NBA this offseason, already armed with a budding superstar in Most Improved Player candidate Nikola Jokic and an enticing young core led by Gary Harris and Jamal Murray. Denver also has ample cap space, plus several movable contracts to make a play at any marquee name this offseason.
By taking a chance on Paul George in theory for some combination of Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried, Malik Beasley and draft picks, the Nuggets, if they were able to shed some more salary, would be able to pursue another superstar free agent. Perhaps a superstar, who, earlier in the summer, said he would be taking a meeting with the Denver Nuggets. And in this hypothetical dreamland, if the Nuggets were able to trade for Paul George and sign Chris Paul, Denver would leap to the elite ranks of the NBA in a heartbeat.
Why PG could consider staying:
Denver would add a third star to pair with Paul George and the Joker. If a third star isn’t coming via free agency, then PG would almost assuredly bolt for LA. Still, Denver has an amazing culture established, and Mike Malone is the only coach Boogie Cousins ever got along with, which is a testament to his coaching prowess in and of itself. Even without Paul George or a third star, Denver is already a very good team. Since sliding Jokic into an everyday starter role, Denver led the NBA in offensive rating at 113.3.
This is a chance Denver needs to take. They’re in a prime position to trade for a superstar without sacrificing any of their burgeoning young core. Even if it only lasts for a single season, Denver wouldn’t be too much worse off than they are right now, and they took a shot at keeping a superstar.
San Antonio Spurs
Oh boy, what a doozy this would be. Off the bat, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard would be one of the most horrifying two-way wing combinations in the NBA.
San Antonio, despite trading for a superstar not being their style, shouldn’t balk at whichever player(s) the Pacers want, whether it’s LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Danny Green, whomever. Okay, maybe not Aldridge. Still, any combination of players in exchange for George would serve for an elite upgrade to Gregg Popovich’s roster, which would be well on its way to another 50-plus win campaign.
Why PG could consider staying:
Umm, it’s the Spurs? They’re like Hotel California: you can never leave. The only players who leave the Spurs are players who retire or who the Spurs don’t want anymore.
But seriously, what player would consider leaving the greatest coach in NBA history? What player would forfeit the option to play with one of the three best players currently in the NBA? What player would leave a team that hasn’t won less than 50 games in nearly two decades? What player would leave a team that would be able to add a third max player (2018 free agents: LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, and DeMarcus Cousins to name a few) in addition to re-signing for the max themselves? Add to it the whole no state tax in Texas thing, and Paul George could retire as a Spurs legend.
R.C. Buford just needs to get him there first.
Los Angeles Clippers
News broke this afternoon that the Clippers were exploring the option of a sign-and-trade for Paul George. This makes all the sense in the world. The Clippers have long been after a scoring wing. Adding Paul George to the fold would give them a scoring wing (to say the least), in addition to providing more incentive for both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul to re-sign with the Clippers. A core four of Deandre, Griffin, CP3, and PG13 is as close to the Warriors as a team in the NBA can currently get. On paper anyway.
The biggest hurdle is the assets required to get George. The Clippers’ draft pick cupboard is all but empty, and the rest of their roster aren’t exactly shiny prizes.
A sign-and-trade of Paul George for J.J. Redick isn’t exactly the kind of return Indy would be looking for, even though they’ve got next to no leverage in these negotiations. Adding Austin Rivers or Jamal Crawford may be enough to get the deal done, but finding a third team seems like the more logical route from all sides.
Why PG could consider staying:
George would be in his hometown of Los Angeles, just not with the right team. Although, assuming Chris Paul and Blake Griffin return, the Clippers would be significantly closer to winning a title than the Lakers. Assuming, of course, the Clippers can stay healthy, which, as we all know, is no guarantee.
Boston Celtics
Please feel free to read this entire section with your best Boston accent. I know I wrote it that way.
This one is arguably my favorite scenario. Not even because I’m a pseudo-Celtics fan (Danny Ainge is the true master of the Process).
Adding PG to the team that finished first in the Eastern Conference. A team, by the way, that is still technically rebuilding. Anyway, let’s assume the Celtics get George for some combination of Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, Terry Rozier and any non-Brooklyn, LA/Sacramento picks (the Celtics could conceivably trade their own pick next year in addition to Memphis and LAC picks from 2019).
That would make Boston’s roster: Isaiah Thomas, Paul George, Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and the number 3 pick in this year’s draft (assuming that’s not part of the deal). They would also probably be calling over Ante Zizic and “French Draymond” Guerschon Yabusele from overseas as well. That’s pretty friggin good.
Now, the Celtics also could have just enough money to throw a max contract to Gordon Hayward. If Hayward chooses to reunite with his college coach Brad Stevens, the Celtics would be an unbelievable force. Fill out the rest of the team with ring-chasing vets, and the Eastern Conference Finals just got a hell of a lot more interesting.
Why PG could consider staying:
Boston, much like San Antonio, is a different type of team. Go read any quote from any player who’s ever played there. It’s like a life changing experience. Between the history, the crowd, the roster, Brad Stevens and a max contract, it would be nearly impossible for Paul George to part ways with the Celtics after only a year.
Bonus Point: Paul George getting traded to the Celtics adds a delightful twist to the Boston-LA rivalry. What if George spurns Boston after they got rid of coveted assets in the hope of keeping him? Imagine if Boston is able to steal the Lakers’ number one free agent target this side of Shaq? An LA native who grew up a Lakers fan at that.
