Four Rookies Seek Bounce Back Sophomore Seasons
Isolating four rookies whose offseason work could translate into productive sophomore seasons for their respective squads.
This past NBA season was a unique one for the 2016 NBA Draft Class. In fact, you could describe this rookie class as the year of the unknown. Out of the top five rookie scorers in the league three are either second round picks (Malcolm Brogdon and Yogi Ferrell) or in their first year over from Europe (Dario Saric). Guys who didn’t have many expectations coming into the season and excelled out of nowhere. This stat shouldn’t deter the future projections of this group. It’s a very deep class and there are a lot of guys who are looking like they can be superstars in four to five years.
However, it doesn’t mean everyone had a smooth initial season in the association. Some players certainly struggled with the adjustment of playing in the NBA, as expected, and it showed whenever they stepped on the court. Here are four players who could bounce back next season.
Dragan Bender
It was a youth movement in the 2016 season for the Phoenix Suns. Guys like Devin Booker, Marquess Chriss, and Tyler Ulis shined in the desert under coach Earl Watson as they looked to rebuild with a young core. But, last season the 4th pick of the draft, Dragan Bender, wasn’t exactly in Watson’s plans in terms of minutes come the seasons end. There were a lot of factors incorporated into this. One major factor was injury. Bender had surgery on his ankle in February to remove bone spurs and it held him out for two months. The injury really set him back as he struggled to get back in the rotation and get into a solid rhythm on the court.
The numbers his first year were appalling, averaging only 3.4 points on 35.4% shooting from the field and earning himself a box plus/minus value of minus -4.3. His shooting and outside touch, (which was part of the intrigue with Bender) wasn’t up to form either. Bender loved to shoot three’s in 2016, with 62.7% of his field goal attempts coming from this area of the court. He only shot 27.7% from three-point land. His offseason work will no doubt focus making improvements in this area.
Bender has to prove he can do much more than shoot from deep. Being a big who can stretch the floor is good for Phoenix as it opens up space for their guys like Booker and Chriss. Yet, Bender can’t just be a spot up shooter, especially considering he was the 4th pick in the draft. He has to become more versatile offensively.
Bender still has to prove his value on this Phoenix team, especially offensively, and next season will be a big telling point for the youngster.
Kris Dunn
Selected 5th, point guard Kris Dunn, struggled as well this past season. From a team standpoint, drafting Dunn made total sense. The Minnesota Timberwolves are a young team with two cornerstones in Andrew Wiggins and Karl Anthony-Towns. Combine their talents with solid role players like Zach LaVine, along with the addition of defensive mastermind Tom Thibodeau and things were looking up.
Logically, bringing on a player like Dunn would only serve to add to the foundation. He was an established player, having made his name at Providence over four years. He was solid defensively, with a career defensive box plus minus of plus +4.9 while playing for the Friars. Along with his ability to score and find teammates for open looks, Dunn looked like the complete player. There were still some concerns about him, but after winning Big East Player back to back years, there wasn’t much Dunn couldn’t do.
It hasn’t been a bright start for a guy many are calling the future point guard for this Minnesota team. Dunn only averaged 3.8 points and 2.4 assists per game for the Timberwolves and was dismal shooting the ball with a 3-point percentage of 28.8. He’s not expected to carry the load offensively with the likes of Towns and Wiggins already filling that role. However, Dunn still has to be at least decent offensively when called upon. At a minimum, Dunn has to find open teammates off the pick and drive lanes for layups. Ultimately, Dunn needs to display at least part of the offensive threat he was in college.
Having solid point guard play will be crucial for the Timberwolves as they attempt to climb into the Western Conference playoff race. It’s a role Dunn could potentially find himself in. He’s already the best perimeter defender for the Timberwolves and it was enough to get him on the floor (especially on a Thibodeau led team). If he wants to get more minutes, he needs to be produce a more all-around effort. At his best, Dunn is a shot creator, so his goal should be to become the primary ball handler and offset these efforts via improving his own offensive versatility.
Wade Baldwin Jr.
Coming into his rookie season, Wade Baldwin Jr. has been classified as the typical “3 and D” player.
His main assets include an ability to spread the floor combined with his well developed defense featuring a 6'11" wing span.
He’s not the type of player who can take over a game with his scoring ability but he was a solid two-way player in college at Vanderbilt and would be a good fit on most teams. Yet things haven’t gone to plan, especially offensively for Baldwin Jr.
Most rookies struggle defensively, yet this is an area of strength in Baldwin’s game as his defensive box, plus/minus of +0.6 highlights. Specifically, lateral quickness, wing span and rebounding all proved to be defensive staples Baldwin can build upon .
The same couldn’t be said offensively. Baldwin Jr. had a really rough time shooting the ball, something that was suppose to be his specialty. His two seasons at Vanderbilt he shot a blistering 42.25 percent from the perimeter. Incredibly, this asset has failed to transfer to the NBA where he regressed to 13.6 percent. Baldwin Jr. wasn’t a high volume shooter coming out of college, averaging just 3.1 attempts at Vandy, and the trend continued in Memphis where he shot an average of 2.8 per game. But to see a huge drop off in percentage is staggering, even if you factor in the difference of the increased 3-point line distance of the NBA.
Baldwin spent a majority of his minutes at the point guard spot. With Mike Conley entrenched in the starting role it means only back up minutes are available. That said, when Baldwin does come in, he has to give Memphis effective minutes. It all starts with an improvement from three-point land. He’s not going to be the number one guy offensively, but it’s not beyond reason to expect him to mold himself into a Patrick Beverley type role. If he can focus on growth as a defensive stopper and rediscovers his three-point prowess he might even be able to extend his minutes to playing some minutes with Conley.
Malachi Richardson
Every year there is one prospect who benefits the most from the exposure of a run in the NCAA Tournament. In 2016 it was was Malachi Richardson who took the spotlight. He was the catalyst during Syracuse’s Final Four run and displayed flashes of a potential impact player. His ability to heat up quickly and incorporate flashy plays made Richardson an interesting pick. To wit, it was a surprise when the Sacramento Kings took him with the 22nd pick and at the end of his first year, the initial reaction to the pick is indifferent.
He joined a Kings shooting guard rotation which already had Ben McLemore, Aaron Afflalo, and now Buddy Hield. For this reason, it was tough to expect Richardson would garner much playing time. Injuring his hamstring in February only served to make his situation more difficult.
Despite showing some promise when he was on the court, Richardson also showed he has a lot to work on. Especially on the offensive end, averaging only 3.6 points per game. While he did shoot an effective field goal percent 47.1, his shot attempts were on the more meager side. Specifically, Richardson took an average of 3.1 shots per game. If he wants to be effective, an uptick in that department is necessary.
Richardson is the type of player who can heat up quickly, but to take advantage of this asset he needs to be a high-volume shooter. It might translate into being the most efficient, but it’s a suitable role offering the best potential for the youngster to garner more playing time. Shooting 41.2 percent from the field was certainly a positive from last season and is something that needs to be maintained even with an increased number of shots.
On a rebuilding Kings team, Richardson should be viewed as a long term project and could offer some value off the bench with his scoring abilities this year. In order for that to happen, his goal has to be remaining efficient even with increased shot attempts. This should be the starting point in terms of development for the former Syracuse guard who captured scouts attention last March.
All stats from NBA.com or Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise stated.
