Golden State Warriors/Portland Trail Blazers Playoff Preview
16 Wins A Ring Writers offer 3 different perspectives on each first round series
The Numbers:
Regular season: Warriors won 4–0
Warriors 115.9 PPG for (1st in NBA)/104.3 PPG allowed (11th in NBA)
Trail Blazers 107.9 PPG for (8th in NBA)/108.5 PPG allowed (25th in NBA)
Warriors record vs Western Conference playoff teams: 19–6
Trail Blazers record vs Western Conference playoff teams: 10–15
Warriors Preview by Liam Devin
Golden State Warriors’ X Factor:
Kevin Durant is my X-Factor in this series for the Warriors. Reincorporating an MVP caliber player after missing the last quarter of the season is not an easy task. It was important for KD to get the three final regular season games under his belt before the playoffs.
This year, Durant averaged 29.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists on 60 field goal percent against the Blazers. Getting Durant going for the rest of the playoffs is the main concern here, as this particular series should not be all that trivial for the Dubs.
Golden State Warriors’ MVP:
In my estimation, Klay Thompson needs to do the most of the Warriors’ stars in this series. While given the challenge of containing star players in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, he also has to carry a fairly big load on offense. I’ll give him the series MVP simply because he is tasked with the most responsibility.
It seems clear he is not the most talented player on their super team, but he has an important role in their success, especially in this matchup.
Klay struggled against Portland this year, shooting under 40% from the field.
Golden State Warriors Key Advantage Over Portland Trail Blazers:
The Warriors have many clear advantages in this series. I’ll point out the issue Portland has down low. If Jusuf Nurkic can return before the series gets out of hand, this may change, but until then, the Warriors should be able to dominate the paint.
Both in terms of rebounding and scoring down low, the Warriors will overpower the Blazers. Once Nurkic returns he can provide rebounding and interior defense that Portland will be lacking in the meantime.
Golden State Warriors Key Disadvantage Over Portland Trail Blazers:
The only point of weakness for this matchup is Steph Curry’s defense, or lack thereof, on Lillard and McCollum.
As indicated above, Klay will most likely be doing the heavy lifting here, but Steph still needs to hold his own. The only way I see the Blazers stealing a game or two is if Lillard goes for an efficient 50+ points. It’s on Curry to slow him down.
Curry versus Durant — Who’ll Take the Lead?
The Warriors attempted to find a balance between the superstars they have in Curry and Durant early in the season. Leading up to KD’s injury, it seemed they had it figured it out, then KD went down.
Curry led them to a huge winning streak when he had the offense to himself. It will be interesting to see how they re-calibrate their offensive machine now that the games are meaningful.
We could get a switch up that sees Curry running the offense, forcing Durant to take a back seat.
Series Prediction: Warriors in 4 games. This will not be a particularly close series. The Warriors swept the regular season series 4–0, including a game without Stephen Curry. Playing some of their best basketball of the season, I see this as a quick series for the Warriors.
Portland Preview by Glory Okoli
Portland Trail Blazers’ Series X Factor:
Considering the Blazers and the Warriors squared off last year in the 2016 Western Conference Semifinals, the key Portland player that didn’t participate in that prior series was Jusuf Nurkic. Currently Nurkic is a huge component to the team the Blazers have put together that made a push for the playoffs.
The team went 14–6 with Nurkic on the court this season, which is a far better pace than the team without him. Since he’s come to Portland, he’s averaged 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assists while shooting 51%. He is a true big man that can produce in the post, which is a weakness for Golden State. However, he may not be completely healthy with his recent fibular fracture, so that’s something to look out for.
Portland Trail Blazers’ Series MVP:
The series MVP is clear for this team. It’s All-Star snub Damian Lillard. Their franchise player, who finished sixth in the league in scoring (higher than every Warrior by the way), has the ability to heat up faster than a microwave, and he’s proven it in seasons past.
Last year he hung 40 on them in game 3 of the Western Conference Semi Finals, and he had 51 on them last February. He has a clear vendetta against Golden State inspired by the fact it’s his home town. His explosive quickness and long range shooting serve him well against the frantic pace of the Warriors. Lillard will need to play a huge role for Portland to take this series.
Portland Trail Blazers Key Advantage Over Golden State Warriors :
Finding an advantage for Portland is awfully difficult, considering they had 26 less wins than Golden State in the regular season and they have four less All-Stars, but we can try, can’t we? If there’s an advantage Portland does have over Golden State, it will come from the Portland guards attacking Golden State off the dribble.
The Blazers were successful in last year’s series when their guards got to the free throw line often. Warriors guard Klay Thompson is a good defender, but he has dropped off this season, and 2-time MVP Stephen Curry has never been elite defensively.
If Lillard and fellow high scoring guard CJ McCollum attack and get them into foul trouble, they can neutralize the Warriors greatest strength — the Splash Brothers.
Portland Trail Blazers Key Disadvantage Over Golden State Warriors :
Well, to be frank, there are plenty, however the main disadvantage comes in the form of the Warriors new superstar, forward Kevin Durant. Durant’s combination of size, length, and athleticism is something the Blazers simply cannot match with the small forward combination of Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Moe Harkless.
Durant wrecked the Blazers during the regular season, averaging 29.3 points, 7.8 rebounds 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.5 blocks and shooting 60 percent from the floor in four games. The Blazers will need to send multiple people his way, which will either mean dunks for the Golden State big men, or threes for the Splash Brothers. Pick your poison.
Unleash Nurkic:
The Blazers were torched by the Warriors four straight games in the regular season, but one guy they didn’t have is Jusuf Nurkic.
Nurkic can punish Warriors centers JaVale McGee or Zaza Pachulia due to his supreme strength and post skills. If Golden State defends him with Draymond Green, he could potentially draw him into foul trouble. Thus eliminating the Warriors best defensive player and primary facilitator.
Another factor that has changed for Portland is the emergence of fourth year sharpshooter Allen Crabbe. Crabbe has greatly improved from last year and is on a recent hot streak. He had 8 threes in the most recent game against the Minnesota Timberwolves. If he can get it going early, Portland may have a chance.
Series Prediction: Warriors over Trail Blazers in 5 games
For as much talent as Portland has, this series is too one-sided. The Warriors have an advantage at every single position except center. And, if Nurkic isn’t completely healthy, that advantage will be nullified.
I trust Lillard will go off for 40+ in one of the games at the Moda Center (or potentially in his home town). So, I believe the Blazers will win one. However, he can’t do it every game, so the Warriors superior depth, shooting, and overall talent will prevail in 5 games.
Independent Preview by Paul Headley
Series X Factor:
Jusuf Nurkic (if healthy). If the Warriors have a weakness at all, it is size and physicality, two things the Bosnian big man brings to every game. He’s helped to revitalize a floundering Blazers team on both sides of the ball.
Nurkic provides an interior presence on D, something the team was sorely lacking. On offense his combination of high-post passing, screen-setting (5th in the league in screen assists as a Blazer) and offensive rebounding have helped fill holes in a guard heavy attack.
The difference has been staggering. In 53 games pre-trade the Blazers were 13th on offense (106.7) and 27th on defense (109.0). In the 21 games Nurkic played before going down with injury they ranked 9th in offense (109.8) and 11th in defense (105.3). That said, he’s still very turnover prone, often clumsily trying to force his way to the basket. Quick-handed, cerebral defenders like Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala will feast on such sloppiness.
We also don’t know exactly how healthy he will be. If he’s healthy, and can focus on crashing the glass and protecting the paint, he could be the guy who pushes the series from straight up murder to something a bit more competitive.
Series MVP: Steph Curry
Curry is healthy, rested and motivated. The quest for 73 wins last season was a psychically and emotionally grueling one, made no easier by a traveling media frenzy. This year he’s been relatively under-the-radar, ceding some control of the offense to Durant. He no doubt knows he’s not in MVP contention and probably won’t make the all NBA first team, and will be looking to breathe postseason fire into anyone who doubts how special he is.
You know what else helps?
Nobody, and I mean nobody, on Portland can guard him. Guarding Steph is a chore even for elite defenders, and I just don’t think anyone in Portland’s star backcourt is up to the task. Guarding Curry means blind panic the entire game trying to find him in transition, chasing him around screens and trying not to fall if you’re a hapless big caught on a switch.
Add in his recent shooting (49.3% on 10.5 3 point attempts per game in his last 13), and you can guarantee sleepless nights for Portland’s coaching staff.
The Steph Curry postseason redemption tour is about to get going.
Key Factor in Series:
For the Blazers it’s their defense. If they can defend like they did in the games Nurkic suited up for (which is admittedly still a small sample size) it at least gives them a shot at keeping it close long enough for Lillard and McCollum to get going. All three of the Warriors blowout victories came before the Nurkic trade, but how much of a difference he can make is still unknown.
Virtually all of the Warriors most used 5-man lineups feature a conventional big man. Therefore, unless Steve Kerr resurrects the Death line-up, Nurkic shouldn’t be at a major disadvantage.
For the Warriors it’s just re-establishing chemistry with Durant again. Historically (as ESPN’s Royce Young has pointed out), Durant is not one to suffer from offensive rust, but it will be a delicate process to get him involved without upsetting the roll the team has been on.
Series Prediction: Warriors over Blazers in 5 games
This is going to sound like a cop-out, but the Warriors are just too talented. The Blazers have the goods offensively to give themselves a puncher’s chance in most games as long as their defense holds up.
If it falters it’s going to be a very quick series. Outside of their star backcourt, and the aforementioned Bosnian bear, the Blazers are short of real top-shelf talent.
Harkless, Aminu and company are solid against the average NBA team night to night, but against this Warriors team they appear over matched.
Klay Thompson (how incredible is it that i can get four paragraphs in before I mention a guy who can score 60 in three quarters?) can keep CJ under control. Iguodala can destroy Portland’s bench and KD should be able to get what he wants, when he wants.
I wish i could come up with an angle that would make things a bit more intriguing, but the Warriors are just too good.
