How Dell Demps is Subverting the Draft Craze
Just what is the worth of a first-round pick, anyway?
When Dell Demps took over the General Manager duties of the then-Hornets, he inherited a GM’s nightmare situation: a disgruntled superstar and an aging roster that never quite fit. Armed with some assets (namely his 2 excellent rookies in Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton and a first round pick), Demps sought to appease his superstar’s questions about contention.
This wasn’t a surprise for anyone: not only was Chris Paul one of the 5 best players in the league (at age 25, no less), he was the golden boy of New Orleans.
He gave the people of New Orleans some comfort through those trying times, back when hurricane Katrina tore through Louisiana (and other US states along the Gulf Coast). Not only did he bring fun and winning basketball back to New Orleans in 2007–08, after it moved temporarily to Oklahoma City during his first 2 years in the league, but he was active in the rebuilding efforts in Louisiana.
So you could understand why Dell Demps traded most — if not all — of his assets to rebuild the franchise into a winner. He traded promising rookie Darren Collison essentially for Trevor Ariza, he traded Marcus Thornton for Carl Landry and he traded the 2011 first round pick (who would eventually become Tobias Harris) essentially for Jarrett Jack.
That allowed the then-Hornets to sneak into the playoffs, despite a season-ending injury to its 2nd best player (David West).
As history would have it, that wasn’t enough. Chris Paul would eventually be traded to the Clippers and everyone thought the rebuilding would begin in earnest.
But after striking gold in the 2012 draft lottery, earning the right to draft Anthony Davis, Demps shocked the world when in 2013–14 (after only one season with AD), he accelerated the rebuilding process.
He traded the rights to Nerlens Noel — who was a consensus Top-3 pick until an ACL injury allowed him to drop all the way to the sixth pick — and a future first (eventually becoming Elfrid Payton) — for Jrue Holiday.
Since then, every first round pick Demps has owned, he has traded. From my 2017 draft grade for the Pelicans:
In fact, the odds the Pelicans’ ever pick outside of the Top 10, maybe even 5, are slim. That’s because in the 7 years since Dell Demps took over the team, only 1 first round pick has signed a second contract (Anthony Davis). And, only two have played at least one season with the Pelicans. Quincy Pondexter, who was technically not a Demps draft pick but more of a draft day trade, which is basically the same, was traded after his first year. While Austin Rivers (the first round pick acquired from the Clippers in the Chris Paul trade) eventually got traded to the Clippers in a 3-way trade for … Quincy Pondexter 4 years later — HAHAHA.
But the rest?
They turned into Tobias Harris (Jerryd Bayless trade), Nerlens Noel and Elfrid Payton (Jrue Holiday trade), Sam Dekker (Omer Asik trade) and Buddy Hield (DeMarcus Cousins trade).
A Market Inefficiency
Peering into the protections on those picks give us a glimpse into how Demps views the draft.
Jarrett Jack trade — Top 7 protected in 2011, Top 8 protected in 2012, 2013 and 2014. If not conveyed by then, it becomes 2 2nd round picks (2015 and 2016).
Jrue Holiday Trade — Top 5 protected in 2014 (no information on subsequent protections).
Omer Asik Trade — Pick conveys if between 4–19 (no information on subsequent protections).
DeMarcus Cousins Trade — Top-3 protected in 2017 (no information on subsequent protections).
What all of this tells us is that Demps only has somewhere around 3 to 7 “can’t miss” prospects in the draft. Additionally, he seems to view the prospects available after the 8th pick as homogeneous.
That’s a far cry from how the rest of the league operates. The league, in general, views first round picks, especially lottery picks, as valuable assets. They view first round picks as the “holy grail” of cheap labor. That’s largely thanks to the way rookie contracts are structured: the first 2 years are guaranteed followed by 2 team options (with the last year being a qualifying offer). The idea of a constrained contract — and that NBA players get better as they age — has made draft picks highly valued commodities, especially for non -contenders.
In reality, picks are much closer to cars than real estate: the moment they are drafted, they lose a lot of their luster and value. And just like someone who’s realized this inefficiency in the auto industry and has decided to purchase 1–2 year old, used cars instead of brand new cars, Demps is realizing this too and he’s capitalizing. Instead of waiting for the pick to lose it’s luster after being traded, he’s selling it at its theoretical “peak” value and grabbing actual players who can contribute now, instead of possibly contributing somewhere down the line.
This doesn’t mean of course that he hasn’t tried replenishing the Pels’ depth and young asset base. He has constantly found quality depth from reclamation projects (Jordan Crawford, Tim Frazier, Luke Babbitt) and the international market (Gustavo Ayon and Brian Roberts), but he’s never really struck gold with his young asset base.
In the past, he’s tried to target upperclassmen from the 2nd round or undrafted ranks, taking chances on guys like Lance Thomas, Darius Miller, Jeff Withey and Bryce Dejean-Jones, to underwhelming success.
With the emergence of the G-League (the Pelicans are set to have their own development team for the 2018–19 season) and the introduction of two-way contracts, Demps has pivoted towards a new strategy: taking a chance on athletic underclassmen who slip to the 2nd round.
Demps’s new draft philosophy
His first attempt was Cheick Diallo, who was pegged as a Top-10 pick until an underwhelming freshman season allowed him to drop early in the 2nd round, where Demps immediately pounced, trading the 39th and 40th pick for the right to draft the young player from Mali (who was drafted 33rd).
And despite playing only 199 minutes of NBA action, Diallo was able to get 700+ minutes in the D-League, where he’s on track to possibly become the next Clint Capela.
His second attempt was Frank Jackson, another freshmen who was projected as a first round pick but an injury late during pre-draft workouts allowed him to drop to — you guessed it — early in the 2nd round, where Demps essentially traded the 40th pick and Tim Frazier for him.
Both of them meet the hallmarks of players who have the best chance of succeeding in the modern NBA:
- Athletic markers — Cheick Diallo and Frank Jackson rank as above average, and in some cases, excellent (for their positions) in wingspan, max vertical, agility time, and sprint time.
- Shooting — Cheick Diallo’s midrange shooting has shown promise in the D-League where he shot 25 of 69 (36 percent) from 15+ ft 2-point jumpers. Frank Jackson was a 39.2 percent 3-point shooter at Duke (130 attempts).
Both are extremely young (Diallo will turn 21 this coming September while Frank Jackson won’t turn 20 until next year) and both will be locked into a 3-year minimum contract.
Thus, despite not having a first-round pick, Demps was able to get first-round talent in the past 2 drafts on the cheapest of contracts.
To completely disregard first round picks and yet not completely give up on getting first round talent? That’s something no one has attempted in the modern NBA. Right or wrong, Demps’s strategy is peculiar and, to a degree, logical. Whether it pans out or not, you can’t deny this: Demps is not afraid to try new things.
