It Might Be Moreyball: Is Houston The Biggest Danger To Golden State?
Prior to the start of the 2016–17 NBA season, it seemed pretty clear that the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers were locks to meet in the NBA Finals for the third straight season.
Per the norm in sports however, things change and other teams emerge, pushing themselves into the championship picture. Now, it appears as though the Warriors and Cavaliers are heading in different directions with a third straight matchup appearing shaky, considering Cleveland’s latest swoon and Golden State’s health.
Golden State has been without Kevin Durant for the last month or so, but he is showing signs or returning, while the Cavaliers have been mostly healthy but were just 7–10 in the month of March, marking just the second time in LeBron James’ career that his team has lost double digit games in a calendar month.
Although the Warriors have won 10straight games dating back to March 14, they’ve looked very vulnerable at times, raising questions regarding if they have enough to reach a third straight finals appearance.
Right now, the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs seem to be generating the most buzz as teams that could end the streak for Cavs-Dubs in the finals, but one team that seems to be overlooked in that conversation is the Houston Rockets.
Under first-year head coach Mike D’Antoni, the Rockets have experienced a rebirth as one of the top teams in the league playing a faster version of D’Antoni’s famed 7-seconds-or-less offense in Phoenix back in the mid 2000s. Likely NBA MVP James Harden has turned in some of his best basketball of the season, leading the charge for the second-highest scoring offense in the NBA.
Currently, the Rockets have already set the new single-season 3-pointers made mark in NBA, sitting at 1,092. They’re on pace for more than 1,150 made 3-pointers, which is absurd when you think about it. Despite relying heavily on the 3-ball to win as many games as they have, the Rockets are trying to beat the Warriors at their game, which is run-and-gun.
Harden is the perfect conductor for this offense, which averages more than 40 3-point attempts per game.
While you could look at that as a dangerous way of playing the game, the Rockets have assembled a perfect roster for this style of play with six guys shooting more than 35 percent from deep on the season.
Harden, Lou Williams, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson can hit from anywhere on the court and happen to be matchup nightmares on the perimeter for their great outside-in games, forcing teams to close out hard on them around the perimeter, opening it up inside for them to drive or dish to guys in the paint like Nene, Montrezl Harrell and Clint Capela.
Since the All-Star break, Houston has actually improved its scoring total from 114.4 points per game in 58 pre-All-Star break games to 119.2 points per game in 17 post-All-Star break games.
A lot of that has to do with the addition of Williams from the Los Angeles Lakers at the trade deadline, but it also has to do with the Rockets getting to the free throw line at a higher clip, led largely by Harden and his impressive ability to draw fouls.
Although the Rockets are just 1–4 against the Warriors this season (their lone win was an 132–127 overtime triumph back on December 1. In a 7-game series though, there’s no telling what the Rockets can do against the Warriors. The mere variation their three point game offers as a threat against any team makes them dangerously unpredictable to play against.
Houston is betting on outscoring them from beyond the arc, which has yet to work in the regular season, but things change once the bright lights of the postseason. It will be hard to try and outscore the Warriors four times in a possible 7-game series, but the Rockets have just the right mix of players on their roster to make it happen.
On any given night Harden, Gordon, Williams or Anderson can go for 35+ just by hitting from beyond the arc at a 40 percent clip. Will that be enough to top the Warriors?
Kevin Durant is returning to health, but the guarantee that he syncs back into a team that is rolling without him is a concern. And any crack of opportunity can be good enough come the postseason, where anything can happen.
If there’s one team out there that has the best chance at rocking the boat and ending a possible trilogy between the Warriors and Cavaliers, it’s the Rockets and the likely league MVP.
