Jimmy Butler — A New Hope
The face of the Chicago Bulls has proven why he’s their franchise player.
Jimmy Butler, after starting in this year’s All-Star game, is on the path of stardom.
Since 2014–15, Butler’s usage percentage has risen on average 1.6 percent each year. He’s finally reached the usage point of a top scorer this year (26.5 percent), but that’s not nearly the max usage for a superstar. Usually 30 percent (plus) is the maximum optimal usage percentage for a ball-dominant guard.
Imagine if Butler didn’t have Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade to share points and the ball with game in, and game out. What if he instead ran the offense, played with willing (and adequate) shooters, and kicked it out? Could he run Coach Fred Hoiberg’s offense?
This was the original plan when Gar Forman infamously said the Bulls were to become “younger and more athletic” during last year’s offseason. The Bulls were supposed to be built around Butler and shooters. What happened? Rondo, Wade, and the pursuit of millions of dollars in ticket sales did.
Butler has the reigns of the Bulls offense, and now can become the best version of himself. Without having the ball 30 percent of the time, Butler continues to prove that he carries this Chicago Bulls team.
This year has been one of growth for Butler. His status as a borderline top 10 player is clearly presented statistically. Even though he’s only 14th in the NBA in points per game (23.9), his overall offensive efficiency has shined. His ability to get to the free-throw line every game and hit free throws at a 86.1 percent clip makes him one of the best offensive players in the game.
Those ahead of him in Win Shares are Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gobert, and James Harden. Leonard and Harden are top five MVP candidates. Gobert is a surefire defensive player of the year candidate.
Only Draymond Green, LeBron James, and Chris Paul edge him out in ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus stat. If this year wasn’t loaded with MVP talent, there would no doubt that Butler would be getting his share of the vote.
Coming out of the first half, Butler seemed to have taken a step into the role of a playmaker. Already, it seemed Butler was becoming something even better for the Bulls.
Chicago’s budding star has taken the reigns of the offense, and ran with it, averaging 22.6 points and 6.8 assists per game on a 46.1 field goal percentage since the break. Bumping his assist totals nearly two per game, as well a three point percentage at 41.3, Butler had started to settle into Fred Hoiberg’s offense.
Then came shocking news. It was announced on March 16th that Dwyane Wade would miss the rest of the regular season with a right elbow fracture. (Note: Wade plans to return earlier than planned Saturday April 8th against the Brooklyn Nets) Chicago’s overall record was 32–36, having just dropped a game to the Memphis Grizzlies.
Wade’s injury sparked a flame in the media. Had the Bulls' late chance at a playoff run been lost?
The Bulls refused to let Wade’s injury to bring them down. The Bulls have been 6–4 since the veteran went down, one of them was a signature win against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Their record now stands at 38–40, making them the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference.
It helps a bit that Denzel Valentine has come into fold, and that Nikola Mirotic had his annual “March Madness.” The polarizing Rondo has figured out his shooting stroke, for now. In the month of March, among players who shot two or more three-pointers per game, only Pau Gasol (57.1 percent) shot a higher percentage than Rondo’s 51.4 percent.
Butler has had to adapt his game since Wade’s injury. He creates more, and scores less. This has breathed new life into his teammates as the season comes to a close.
After his 14 assist performance against Giannis Antetokenumpo and the Milawaukee Bucks last week, Butler was asked by about the change from his role as the Bulls’ primary scorer into more a playmaker.
“I’m learning,” Butler told the Chicago Sun Times. “I think that all the film that I watch on myself and of other players getting double-teamed, you just have to pick up on things a lot faster. I think I can still be better at it with my decision-making and what to do and when to do it.”
Before Wade went down, Butler’s assist percentage was at 24.4 percent, a career high but nothing too special. His assist percentage has now skyrocketed to 33.3 percent, with only a 0.2 percent boost in his usage rate (26.5 percent to 26.7 percent). Butler has figured out a way to take on the primary ball handler duties, without stepping on anyone’s toes, or hampering his scoring.
With Wade out of the lineup, Butler is able to play with almost always with two spot-up shooters on the floor at once. The rag-tag bunch of Rondo, Mirotic, Valentine, Bobby Portis and Paul Zipser gives Butler the option to drive and kick the ball out. That core of shooters gives Butler more options than Russell Westbrook has with the Thunder — so it’s a doable offensive attack. Run the PnR with Jimmy, and have shooters in the corners or wings. It’s how nearly every superstar playmaker is used today.
It also helps a ton that Fred Hoiberg finally realized his lineup shifting was not working. Not to mention that Taj Gibson was traded and Wade got hurt. Hoiberg didn’t have any other options. There wasn’t many more realistic lineups that Hoiberg could conjure up. Leave the lineup shifting to the Joe Maddons and Joe Quenvilles of the world.
Mark Karantzoulis of Bulls HQ touched on this on his piece about the Bulls finally having a functional starting five.
In limited minutes (73), a five-man combination of Rondo, Butler, Zipser, Mirotic and Lopez is scoring 139.1 points per 100 possessions whilst holding opponents to 100.7 points.
In a very broad sense, only one weak defender exists in the unit (Rondo). There are two capable three-point shooters (Mirotic, Zipser) and three shot creators (Rondo, Butler, Mirotic).
With Lopez’s manning the middle, rebounding efficiency is still present, particularly offensively. Relative to the five-man units the Bulls have played, there’s also a hint of athleticism.
In effect, the Bulls have replaced Wade and Gibson with two 3&D options — or at least two players capable of imitating such a role for stretches. In doing so, Butler has more lanes to operate in, which has enabled a better balance between Butler the scorer and facilitator.
The moves made at the deadline by Gar Forman and John Paxson were not not rebuild, but to retool. It led to the Bulls trading lifelong Bull Gibson and former first rounder Doug McDermott for Cameron Payne, currently stationed in the D-League.
By their incompetency, the Bulls finally have a lineup that works.
Just this past Saturday the Bulls pulled out a win in Atlanta, after losing a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter. Butler had 33 points and sealed the win with 2.1 seconds.
It was only two months prior in January that Chicago blew a 10-point lead inside the final three minutes against the Hawks, which in turn led to Butler and Wade criticizing their teammates and then Rondo clapping back with a passive-aggressive Instagram post.
The team itself has gone through immense change, but one thing has stayed crystal clear. This is Jimmy Butler’s team.
There’s no true complement for Butler that Chicago could find in free agency. A team built around an ageing Rondo and Wade isn’t going to let Butler shine. It even took Tim Duncan to retire for Kawhi Leonard to take the next step offensively. If this is going to be the Butler era in Chicago, it’ll be decided this offseason.
Realistically, even if the Bulls keep their playoff spot and win a few games in the first round, what does it really matter? The front office will either attempt to build around him (and likely fail), or trade him for assets that don’t pan out. That’s what happens when front offices can’t identify talent.
If the Bulls do keep Butler (and not trade him to Boston for draft picks and a veteran) they need to build around him. End of story. But for now, the focus is on fighting for a playoff spot. Butler can’t control what his front office does, but he can control the outcome on the court.
“Everybody’s trust level (with) in one another,” Butler told CBS Chicago explaining why the Bulls are a different team. “I think our roles are a lot more clear… More than anything, it’s all about who’s playing the best basketball at the right time.”
Jimmy Butler and the Bulls are playing their best basketball right now.
Enjoy it while you can.
All stats via NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com
