Kevin Durant’s defense is biggest loss for Golden State Warriors
The NBA world went into shock when news broke of Kevin Durant’s injury, but with new information, the Warriors know they can weather this storm.
Typically, the effects of Zaza Pachulia falling to the floor aren’t important whatsoever. He’s slow to get up (as he is to get anywhere) and may fall out of positioning if a flop doesn’t work, but that’s about it. Get up, move on. This time, when Marcin Gortat grabbed ahold of Pachulia in the Golden State Warriors’ Tuesday loss to Washington and threw him aside to prepare himself for a rebound, the consequences were far greater. There was an impact zone for Pachulia’s fall: Kevin Durant’s left leg.
Durant slowly made his way off the court, leaving the arena before the game had even finished as the Warriors rushed to diagnose what was wrong. It became clear early on that he had a hyperextended knee, but the extent of the damage was yet to be seen, until an MRI later the same night confirmed that he suffered a Grade 2 MCL Sprain and a tibial bone bruise. In an almost eerie way, it’s nearly the exact same injury his fellow MVP teammate had at a similar time last season: Stephen Curry suffered a Grade 1 MCL Sprain when he slipped on a wet patch in the first round of last year’s playoffs.
Thankfully, for the sake of Durant’s health and seeing the NBA Finals matchup we all want between a healthy Warriors juggernaut and LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers, he’ll be back far sooner. Durant will be re-evaluated in four weeks, and there’s a chance he could play again near the end of the regular season, which is terrific news. The initial fear was that the bone bruise could have been a fracture and would have sidelined him for several months, not six to eight weeks, as is a fairly reasonable expectation for a Grade 2 MCL Sprain.
So, what’s the impact on the Warriors? For everyone sarcastically (and appropriately) saying they’re “only left with a core that went 73–9 to try and get by,” how big actually is the loss of Durant for over a month?
Well, it’s pretty big when you look at how terrific Durant has been. Matt Barnes being brought in isn’t exactly going to save the day. 25.3 points and 4.8 assists per game has been light work for Durant alongside his new teammates, zipping the ball around the court at a terrific rate while the immense gravity of the Splash Brothers’ shooting and Curry in particular creates more space for him to operate off the ball and get cleaner looks. Durant has capitalized perfectly, recording a career-high field goal percentage of 53.7, shooting 37.8 percent from three, and earning the best True Shooting Percentage of his career (65.1) in the process.
There’s no doubt Durant will be missed. He can create in ways that Curry and certainly Klay Thompson can’t (especially against bigger opponents), possessing an exceptional post game and a knack of simply shooting over any defender that comes his way. The versatility Durant brings will also be missed over the next month. He’s upgraded the Death Lineup as a sensational small-ball power forward, and that dynamic two-way option at the four when Draymond Green shifts to center can’t be replaced.
However (and that’s a big however), as sensational as Durant is in so many facets of basketball, it’s important that those panicking and spewing hot takes out there calm down. At 50–10, the Warriors are still four games ahead of the 45–13 San Antonio Spurs and 8.5 games ahead of the 42–19 Houston Rockets. The Warriors aren’t in sudden danger of falling down the standings and even if they do slip to second after a while, what’s the problem? Quite frankly, they’re built to beat everyone in this conference, even if falling to the second seed and facing the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round brings about unwanted Russell Westbrook drama and a host of size, physicality and rebounding to overcome.
Ultimately, Golden State’s offense should be just fine for a while without Durant, because even though they may have less depth, they still have their long-time trio to fall back on. Draymond is always ready and able to facilitate and dictate the pace of the offense when the ball is in his hands, while Thompson can quickly take on a few extra shots each night and, most importantly, Curry can get back to being the most sizzling version of his Chef Curry self.
His play in January was far more reminiscent of last year’s unanimous MVP performance, as his usage rate hit 32.4 and he averaged 27.8 points per game on 47.9 percent shooting (43.1 percent from deep with 4.8 made threes a night). He wasn’t used quite so heavily again in February and his usage and output dipped, resulting in a 24.2 point average as his scoring was more turbulent, going from 13 one night to 35 the next.
Now, that inconsistency can be forgotten. There doesn’t need to be turbulence in Curry’s role with Durant on the sidelines. It’s time for the Warriors to embrace Stephen Curry as their reigning two-time MVP and let him take full hold of the reigns. Plus, the Warriors are at their best in close crunch time situations when the big shots come from the hands of Curry. This gives them a chance to take that on again when necessary, probably giving us more three-point explosions and clutch jumpers in the process.
A reassuring stat for Warriors fans is that in 215 minutes played without Durant this season, the trio of Curry, Thompson and Draymond still have a +13 net rating per 100 possessions. Overall without Durant on the floor this season, the Warriors’ offensive rating falls from an absurd 119.8 with him to 110.8; a major drop, yet still good enough to rank fifth in the league. Sure, the depth Durant brings to balance things out is gone, but this offense is still deadly enough to adjust. And an extra aggressive Curry for the next six weeks or so is going to be fun to say the least.
The real issue with the Warriors in Durant’s absence is the repercussions it’ll have on their defense. Which, as was the case before the season began and is still true even today, is a too frequently overlooked part of his game.
At the start of February, I wrote in far more detail about exactly how Durant has elevated the Warriors’ defense. He’s averaging a career-high 1.6 blocks per game and forcing opponents to shoot 49 percent at the rim. It’s that rim protection which the Warriors can’t replace in his absence, as he can use his guard-like speed (and center-like size) to not only smother players at the perimeter but provide help from the weak side in a flash or be used as a last line of defense at times to cover the basket. That can result in blocks like this, on none other than LeBron James:
Durant’s defense rarely gets enough credit and he could easily be argued as an All-Defensive caliber player this year due to his versatility and increased impact as a shot blocker, all of which has helped the Warriors crush low expectations for their defense to rank second in efficiency, surrendering only 101.4 points per 100 possessions. This, more than his scoring, is what the Warriors will miss while he’s out. They’ll feel smaller, less switchy, less imposing inside, and weaker on the boards without his career-high 8.2 per game. The offense can easily be adjusted in a way that the defense can’t without Durant. A similar defensive forward is nowhere in sight on their roster and they no longer have rim protectors in Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli to utilize.
Nevertheless, don’t panic. Curry can take over again. Promising rookie Patrick McCaw has a chance to further his development with more minutes. Durant’s shots can be scattered through the roster, and this Warriors team will still be more talented than practically everyone else can get by with their offense.
The rest of the regular season will just see the team take a different approach, and that certainly doesn’t mean it’s the end of the world. They’ll need Durant to be near his best when the playoffs roll around, but until then, if we’re going to be concerned with anything, it’s how the defense looks. And regardless, it’s not like a drop off there is going to bring about a ton of losing all of a sudden.
The time is now for the rest of the team to step up (as they have), while Draymond Green has a perfect chance to lock in and make his push for Defensive Player of the Year.
Don’t worry, Golden State. You can get by just fine.
All statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
