Why Kyrie Irving Will Have Difficulty Winning Rings As The Centerpiece Player
Irving wants to sever one of the best tandems in the NBA to become the centerpiece, but is he setting himself up for disappointment?
A year after two-time Most Valuable Player Stephen Curry checked his ego at the door to welcome another former MVP in a quest for an NBA championship, Kyrie Irving is reportedly attempting to go against the grain.
Less than a month after Jimmy Butler and Paul George were traded into opportunities to win now, and Gordon Hayward left Utah for Boston with #ringz in mind, Irving has asked to be traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers, the team he helped pilot to three consecutive Finals appearances, in favor of playing where he can be the centerpiece of a team’s offense.
It’s the latest twist in an NBA Summer spinning out of control.
This piece of news is a downright shocking revelation for two reasons. First, Irving averaged more than 25 points per game last season on a championship caliber team in Cleveland, so it’s not like he wasn’t featured heavily on a team of relevancy. Second, by all accounts Irving is a deeply competitive, driven player who desperately wants to win, and he has a chance to continue doing it by sticking with the best player of this generation — who is still arguably the best player in the league. You would think Irving would prefer that opportunity over going into a possible rebuilding situation elsewhere. Irving has stipulated his preferred four landing spots, but he doesn’t get to control where the Cavs send him.
Maybe he’s seen the writing on the wall in Cleveland. Perhaps he sees LeBron James with one foot out the door as the star heads for free agency in 2018. Plus, Irving understands this team was built around its homegrown star — and once he’s gone the organization could be thrust back into the NBA’s cellar.
Possibly, Irving envies Boston’s Isaiah Thomas, a player who plays the same position yet is the featured scorer on a quality playoff team that could be much better this year with the addition of Hayward and the growth of several youngsters. Those factors may be pushing Irving to find a similar situation.
Still, the fact remains that no team has ever reached the Finals, let alone won a ring, with a point guard like Irving. To clarify — every team that has ever had a high usage, scoring lead guard who cannot defend as its centerpiece has failed to compete at a high level. And that’s unlikely to change with Irving.
Though Irving scored 25.8 point per game last season, he’s coming off arguably his worst defensive season of his six-year career. His defensive rating, according to basketball-reference, was the worst he’s ever recorded, and he averaged fewer steals per game than ever before. And as FiveThirtyEight’s Chris Herring recently pointed out, last season Irving was one of just 10 guards to allow 50 percent shooting or better from the floor in one-on-one shooting situations.
Even if you take Irving’s best defensive season — 2015–16, for example — no point guards with a similar statistical comparison have ever been on a championship caliber team as the featured offensive player. There are 58 such instances where a starting lead guard had a 106 defensive rating or worse, averaged at least 23 points per game and was the primary scoring option. Of those instances, none of those players even reached a conference finals.
The closest was James Harden, John Wall and the Celtics’ Thomas last season. They each reached the Western Conference semifinals. Other instances include a humdrum collection of Gilbert Arenas, Damian Lillard and Stephon Marbury. All very good scorers, but not quite efficient enough offensively to compensate for their porous defense.
Allen Iverson did play some point guard during his career, and fell into this criteria a few times, but it’s no coincidence that he avoided it during his lone MVP season, when he willed the Sixers to the Finals in 2001. He had a very solid 99 defensive rating that season.
Golden State’s Curry also fell into the category, but it was early in his career, in 2012–13, before he morphed into one of the best players in the world, and led the league in steals while winning a scoring title.
When Iverson and Curry both got better defensively, their teams followed.
The starting point guards with the best defensive rating this year? The likes of Russell Westbrook, Curry, Chris Paul, Harden, and Wall. They were also among the tops in defensive win shares. Though none of them will be confused with Kawhi Leonard on defense, these franchise players were good enough on that end of the floor for their teams to have realistic title aspirations.
It’s no secret scoring point guards are in vogue, but it’s rare that one can lead his team into title contention. The obvious exception is Curry, who led Golden State, then the league, in scoring while winning back-to-back MVP Awards and leading the Warriors to back-to-back Finals appearances before last season. That is in part due to his defense. His defensive rating hovered between 101 and 105 the last three seasons and he led the league in steals two of those three years — and he was so dominant and efficient as a scorer that he average 30 points on 20 shots per game in 2015–16. In short: he’s on a level Irving is unlikely to reach.
Irving’s an elite scorer, and unquestionably the best ball handler in the league. He can drop 40 with ease in a Finals game, and break down a defense with his uncanny ability to get to the lane and finish. But he’ll need a lot of help around him to be the centerpiece of an offense without offering much defensively.
It’s also fair to argue that, contrary to other elite point guards, Irving may not make his teammates significantly better on offense. He attracts double teams when LeBron isn’t on the floor, and can shoot the ball well enough (.383 career from 3) to spread the floor and give guys open looks. But it cannot be ignored that the Cavs’ offensive rating was just 2.1 points better during the 2016–17 postseason with him on the floor as opposed to the bench. (It was 10.4 points better during the regular season, though just 4.6 points better during the 2015–16 season.)
Irving is best suited for an offense where he handles the ball and creates offense for himself, which makes it difficult to imagine pairing him with another superstar who needs, or wants, to have the ball in his hands. He fits together almost perfectly with James, and it appears unlikely to be as smooth with other superstar players, particularly if they’re cleaning up for him on defense.
Irving’s best move would be the stay in Cleveland, make another run at a title with James this season, and enjoy the benefit of playing with the best player in the world for at least one more year. Because if he forces his way out of the situation he’s in and never returns to the winners’ circle again, his career legacy will more closely resemble that of Marbury and Arenas than Curry.
