Life After Dirk: How The Dallas Mavericks Slowly Made An Investment In Youth
As the Mavericks prepare for the inevitability of life without Dirk Nowitzki, their rebuild journey begins with a trio of young talents.
On March 7th 2017, Dirk Nowitzki scored his 30,000 point with a classic fade-away jump shot over Larry Nance Jr. of the Los Angeles Lakers. It was a great moment for one of the leagues greatest players. Nowitzki has played his entire career in Dallas, so reaching this milestone at American Airlines Center, in front of home town fans was something very special. It was a magical moment, but with a sad underlining — it won’t last forever.
The Dallas Mavericks have known the end of Dirk’s career is coming soon and once the German departs, the franchise will have to rebuild. But, luckily for Mavs fans, the preparation for life after Dirk has already begun. With a series of shrewd moves, the Mavericks have found themselves a decent core they can use moving forward.
It wasn’t the most conventional method, but it was an effective one in finding a core group of three players Dallas can trust moving forward. Behind the trio of Harrison Barnes on the wing, Nerlens Noel in the middle and Seth Curry at the point, there is reason to believe in the Mavs future.
Even though Nowitzki is still the top dog in Dallas, Harrison Barnes has emerged as the top scorer for this team. The former Golden State Warriors forward has seemingly found his home in Dallas and is thriving. Barnes is leading the team in scoring with 19.8 points and 5.2 rebounds per game, while shooting an effective field goal percent (eFG%) of 50.1. After being cast off by Golden State to make room for the arrival of Kevin Durant, many were wondering how good he actually was. A fair concern, especially after his horrendous performance in the Finals.
Eyebrows were certainly raised after the Mavericks offered him a 4-year $95 million dollar deal. But, in short order Barnes proved he has earned his pay in Dallas. He has become a more balanced scorer and is not just sitting in the corner waiting for kick-out three’s like his time at Golden State.
One area where Barnes has improved is his one-on-one offense. Specifically, when he has to beat his man to gain access to the basket. For example, in the above video Barnes has to catch the ball near the three-point line and work against Solomon Hill from there. He faces him and immediately makes his move. All it took was a simple dribble to the left and a step-back jumper, something Pelicans TV announcer Joel Meyers noted has become a part of Barnes’s arsenal.
Already the leading scorer on the Mavericks, Barnes continues to build offensive versatility in his game. Moreover, he certainly has begun to take some of the reigns away from Nowitzki when it comes to the Mavericks top option on offense.
Meanwhile, as for the defense, newly acquired Nerlens Noel appears to be the anchor in the middle for Dallas. Noel was the 6th pick in the 2013 draft and spent his entire Pro career in Philadelphia. In exchange for Noel, Dallas sent Justin Anderson (selected 21st by Mavericks in 2015 draft) and a future first round pick to Philly.
It was tough for Noel to find playing time in Philly due to the over crowded frontcourt that also consisted of Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafar. The Sixers front office had to make a choice on which player to deal. It turns out Noel was the one on the chopping block. Despite giving away a decent wing in Anderson and a first round pick (heavily protected though), the Mavericks got a great return in Noel.
Noel’s strength is defense and rim protection. Using his long frame, the big man from Kentucky is able to be a menace when the opposition enter the paint. His career defensive box plus/minus average is plus +3.9. This season in Philly it was plus +3.8 and in his brief time at Dallas it is plus +3.2. Noel is not only able to block shots, but alter them as well. Last season, according to Nylon Calculus’s rim protection data, Noel saved about 1.03 points per 36 minutes and 0.83 per game.
With Dirk getting older and not getting any faster, the Mavericks needed a center that could provide sufficient help at the rim when needed. They haven’t had a big like that since Tyson Chandler and they now have it in Noel. His offense isn’t bad either, with him shooting a true shooting percentage (TS%) of 63.1%, showing he’s not a deficit for the Mavs while on offense. But offense really isn’t Noel’s role in this system and that’s just fine.
As an example of Noel’s prowess on defense check out the above video: Noel has to defend the pick and roll and is put in a tough spot. Trying to stop Kemba Walker from driving, while also keeping an eye on the rolling Frank Kaminsky. By the time the help comes back from T.J. McConnell, Kaminsky is already rumbling towards the rim and it looks like a simple layup for him. But, Noel who always does a great job with this, recovers nicely and blocks his shot. Using his quick feet and long wingspan, Noel is often able to use those tools to his advantage to help recover on defense.
The one big enigma for the Mavericks is at point guard and most particularly, Seth Curry. In case you haven’t noticed, Seth is the younger brother of NBA superstar, Steph Curry. It’s been tough for the former Duke player since the day he stepped into the NBA, given the last name on his jersey and who he would be compared to. But like Barnes, Curry has seemed to find a home in Dallas.
He is averaging 12.7 points and has a eFG% of 57.6% along with an offensive box, plus/minus of +1.8 differential. Additionally, he has shown some family traits in being a threat from three-point land, shooting a whopping 42.4% with an attempt rate of 45.8%. A perfect example of his perimeter mastery is offered when opponents back off him (even slightly) in transition and he pulls up to nail the three-point shot.
This type of offensive output has landed Curry a starting spot with Dallas at the two spot, but he also has shown traits of being able to be a solid point guard in the NBA. With his ability to hit shots and be effective off the dribble, Curry is showing himself as a real offensive threat.
In the above example, the Mavericks run a simple 1–4 pick and roll (PNR) with Curry and Barnes. Even though he’s only used in pick and rolls around 4 times a game, Curry is effective with it, scoring .94 points per possession (PPP) on PNR plays where he is the ball handler.
The screener, Harrison Barnes, does a great job of planting and stopping Jarrett Jack in his tracks. Hill doesn’t switch correctly and shows a potential blitz before retreating back to Barnes, leaving Curry wide open. Jack does a great job of recovering and is able to get back just in time as Curry looks like he is about to release it. But, the problem is he doesn’t. Curry pump fakes, sending Jack flying past him, which allows him to reset and then knock down the open jumper.
There are still concerns regarding Curry as to whether he can continue to put up these numbers and be a quality starting guard in the NBA. But, he has proven he belongs in the league and credit to the Mavericks for finding a solid player on a cheap contract. Even if he continues to produce 80% of his current numbers , he will certainly find himself being a great sixth man off the bench for most NBA teams.
Life after Dirk won’t be easy. Nobody said it would be. But, this has been coming for a long time, so its good Dallas has put the wheels in motion. They acquired a decent young core in Barnes, Noel, and possibly Curry. They are set for now and should prioritize continuing to build their team from the ground up. Ultimately, it’s all about the future for Dallas from this point forward.
