More Money, Four Problems (For The NBA)
In the first year of the NBA’s $24 billion television deal, four prodigious problems that will plague the league take center stage.
Now, who’s hot, who’s not? Instead of discussing who rocks and who sells out in the stores, the forthcoming monograph explains how the NBA has bigger problems than the All-Star game. And how issues with players resting, competition, and new money could eventually plague the league’s popularity.
Yes, the MVP discussions are approaching fever pitch. Can Russell Westbrook actually lose out on the award while averaging a triple-double and carrying his team to the playoffs? What more does James Harden have to do? Then, there’s potential for Warriors-Cavaliers III, which would be the first time in NBA history the same teams battled in three consecutive Finals.
Of course not all is lost, but NBA leadership must prudently address these four problems. But first, some words from former NFL superstar Randy Moss to set the stage for the first subtopic.
Randy Moss nonchalantly responded to questions about a fine, “What’s ten grand to me?” Consider the following extrapolation of Moss’ comments.
New Money Looking Funny In The Light
ESPN and TNT partnered on a nine-year television deal that will pay the NBA $24 billion. The annual payout to the league is nearly three times higher than the $930 million it received under the previous television deal that expired in 2016. With $1.74 billion in new money set to pour into the NBA annually, what’s $376 million to team owners?
Teams have more cash to burn on player salaries than ever before. So by golly three teams combined to set $376 million ablaze last summer.
Behold, the five worst contracts spawned by new television money that could have a damning domino effect around the NBA. Each of these players rank in the top ten percent of the league in salary this season, but have negative Real Plus-Minus ratings, which estimates a player’s net impact per 100 possessions. Four of these players rank in the bottom fourteen percent of the league in RPM. Simply put, these are the guys who flopped but still copped the blue drops.
5. Timofey Mozgov: 4 years, $64 million, RPM: -3.37
- Comparison: Marquese Chriss- $2.94 million, RPM: -3.35
Timofey Mozgov had as much impact on the Cleveland Cavaliers’ title run last season, as Mark Madsen had for the Los Angeles Lakers’ title run in 2001. The Lakers paid Mozgov top dollar anyway. He now warms the bench in favor of younger teammates, which could last beyond this season.
4. Luol Deng: 4 years, $72 million, RPM: -0.48
- Comparison: Montrezl Harrell- $1.05 million, RPM: -0.46
Four years ago, Luol Deng played in his second consecutive All-Star game. That’s when this contract would have made sense. The Lakers are now paying a premium for locker room leadership on a bad team. Jim Buss spending $136 million for two players who will play limited roles going forward feels like sabotage, right?
3. Evan Turner: 4 years, $70 million, RPM: -3.11
- Comparison: Bojan Bogdanovic- $3.73 million, RPM: -3.13
The Portland Trailblazers had to believe signing Evan Turner would elevate their standing in a stacked Western Conference. Instead, there are only 63 players in the NBA who have a worse analytical impact on their teams than Turner. One of them is his teammate and next on this list.
2. Allen Crabbe: 4 years, $75 million, RPM: -3.18
- Comparison: Zach Lavine- $2.24 million, RPM: -3.18
Allen Crabbe ranks fourth in the league in 3-point field goal percentage (.438). Unfortunately, Crabbe’s offensive value is severely offset by his porous defense. Only six players in the league have a worse defensive Real Plus-Minus. The Blazers are five games below .500 and are a fringe playoff team. How many contenders can you name have spent $145 million on two backups?
1. Chandler Parsons: 4 years, $95 million, RPM: -3.58
- Comparison: Paul Zipser- $750,000, RPM: -3.55
Chandler Parsons was one of the NBA’s worst players by Real Plus-Minus in the 34 games he played. Yet, he’ll collect nearly thirty times more money in salary this season than Paul Zipser, who slightly outperformed him in RPM. The following is a snapshot of Parsons’ season:
This is the new reality in the NBA. With team valuations rising for owners, it’s only right player salaries increase. But, the best salaries should remain with the best players. The term “max contract player” used to be reserved for the upper echelon. Now, there is no distinction as team owners do their best Oprah Winfrey impressions with max contracts.
Leaky checkbooks have ravaged glamour franchises like the New York Knicks and Lakers. Bad contracts have weighed them and others down like water tugging at your swimwear, as you emerge from the pool.
Make The East Compete Again
How many teams are serious championship contenders right now? According to Las Vegas odds makers, there are two. There are few indications that number will vastly increase in the foreseeable future. Especially when you consider the current landscape of the Eastern Conference.
The Golden State Warriors have four All-Stars under the age of 30 and their best is ahead of them. The Cavaliers have rampaged through the East, sweeping four of their last six East playoff rounds. They look primed to make the NBA Finals for the next three years, as nearly all of the league’s best superstars battle each other in the Western Conference.
Name the ten best players in the world if you don’t believe that last statement. The talent and competition disparity between conferences is abundantly clear. The West currently has nine of the top twelve players in Real Plus-Minus. They also boast fifteen of the top twenty players in Box Plus-Minus, which is a “box scored based estimate of a player’s net impact per 100 possessions. And since Michael Jordan’s second retirement in 1998, the West has claimed twice as many NBA championships (12) than the East (6).
LeBron James is the only barrier preventing the West from hosting annual championship parades. The East has very good players, but few you have confidence in to lead a team in a duel against the West powerhouses. If only there were a superstar with a cast to push LeBron. Who else can be the best player on a championship team in the East?
Giannis Antetokounmpo appears to fit the bill. The “Greek Freak” ranks in the top ten in Win Shares, Box Plus-Minus, and Wins Over Replacement Player according to Basketball-Reference. He’s one of only four NBA players with ratings greater than 2.15 for Offensive and Defensive Real Plus-Minus. The tide should change for the East with the rise of Antetokounmpo.
Refreshing NBA All-Star Weekend
Did you ever think you’d see the NBA All-Star game became as dingy as the NFL Pro Bowl? Well, as many of you know, winter is here! NBA Commissioner Adam Silver recently declared immediate changes will come to the All-Star Game.
Silver went as far to solicit help from the public, suggesting people email ideas to Adam@NBA.com. He acknowledges the game needs a “reset,” but I contend the entire construct of All-Star Weekend needs to be re-imagined.
The Skills Challenge is archaic and lacks any real intrigue. The 3-Point Contest remains mildly entertaining but would serve better as a less-heralded ancillary. The Slam Dunk Contest is almost always only as good as the names in it. The last one featured a guy I’m sure was called up from the D-League solely to participate in the contest because even rookies are turning it down now.
The debate is found at the nucleus of sports fandom as it permeates our daily dialogue. Whether its Twitter tug of war or barbershop banter, fans are always arguing about who’s the best. So what if All-Star Saturday Night featured events designed to quell the hottest debates?
Who has the best handle in the NBA? Though Kyrie Irving has emerged as the popular choice, players like Steph Curry, Jamal Crawford, and C.J. McCollum could challenge for the crown in a ball handling competition. Players would take part in competitive drills and craft a final freestyle routine to be scored by a panel of former crossover connoisseurs.
Who’s the best one-on-one player in the game? Imagine a game of King of the Court at the highest level, like this one from a USA Basketball training camp session a few years ago.
The competition would feature the game’s most prolific scorers. Defenders will be on an island and have to prove their individual fortitude. There could be backcourt and frontcourt brackets, with the winner from each squaring off against each other for bragging rights. If players can go at each other during a meaningless off-season practice session, why not All-Star Weekend? Imagine the social media scene for those events.
Another viable plot twist is to allow fans to vote on who participates in All-Star Saturday Night events. This may ensure participation from marquee players, as they will be forced to refuse the very fans who patronize their brands. Those optics would be repulsive for player images.
As for the All-Star Game itself, I’m not sure it can be salvaged. The players have made it clear they are not very interested in playing the game. Consider this misguided quote from LeBron James via Cleveland.com:
“I think the biggest thing coming out of the game is that everybody leaves injury-free. We gave the fans what they wanted to see and everyone left injury-free. Another successful All-Star Weekend for myself and everyone.”
Can you point to a devastating injury a player suffered in the All-Star Game? And do you know anyone that craves a game which resembles a moderate, no-contact practice session?
The bottom line is four-point shots and other gimmicks won’t do much for player effort. Today’s NBA player is more powerful than ever because of the wealth they accumulate. Increase financial incentives for the All-Star Game and cross your fingers.
With the way that game has been played, I’m sure no one would miss it if it was eventually scrapped altogether.
Regular Season Resting Too Regular
Players and coaches alike are griping more than ever about the rigors of the regular season schedule. There have been 82 regular season games for half a century. Still, Cavaliers’ star point guard Kyrie Irving believes its a new day, speaking Sunday night via Cleveland.com:
“I can’t stress enough how important rest is. You’ve got veterans who have come before us who play 82 games that have their opinions and we’re just in a different time now. The smart way of taking care of your body and understanding what the important goal is at the end of the season it’s at the forefront of our minds. We’re playing for a championship run, playoff run.”
The Lakers and the Chicago Bulls were the last teams to three-peat in the NBA. Go look at the minutes and games played by Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant during their championship runs. Does he think those players lacked an understanding of the end goal?
Sure, we are in a different time. A time when training staffs have the latest technologies and advancements at their disposal to improve athlete performance and recovery. Several years ago, Gregg Popovich pioneered the impromptu “DNP-Rest,” aiming to preserve seasoned players who were well into their thirties. Now, the practice is rampant as guys who are in their early twenties are being rested.
Adam Silver sent out a memo to the NBA’s Board of Governors noting this trend is “an extremely significant issue for our league.” Silver urged team owners to be more involved in those decisions as they have greater perspective of the issue’s total impact. He also warned “significant penalties” will be levied against teams who do not comply with league rules regarding proper notification for players who will be rested.
On Tuesday afternoon, Lebron James offered his theory on the noise surrounding this debate:
He references Popovich, but omits the part about the Spurs being fined $250,000 in 2012 for resting players without notice. So, his assertion about it being a problem only when he sits is not entirely accurate. The timing was suspicious because unlike the Warriors, the Cavaliers had a night off ahead of their prime time ABC game. However, it is another shrewd example of LeBron making it about himself, as he continues to soar after pulling off the greatest comeback in Finals history. But, I digress.
Perhaps the NBA should consider reducing the regular season by at least ten games as a compromise. But players seem to have prioritized various salary stipulations in the latest collective bargaining agreement. Less games equals less revenue and though players complain about the schedule, not many on either side of the bargaining table are about that less revenue life.
NBA players and organizations are boldly flexing their muscles against the league’s long-standing norms. Player salaries and team valuations are at record-highs. There’s a distinct battle of money, power, and respect underway and the NBA is losing. Fans are losing even more as they pay premium prices to see their favorite players, only to find them gleefully resting on the bench
The NBA has to quickly devise a way to bridge the gaps between the interests of its players, teams, fans, and high-profiled business partners. Evidently, this is what comes with $24 billion. As the hook to a wildly popular ballad goes, “it’s like the more money we come across, the more problems we see.”
