NBA Draft Watch: Whose Stock Went Up/Down During the Tournament
With the NCAA tournament now over, which players’ draft stocks were influenced the most by their performance?
The NCAA Tournament provides the stomping ground for many of the NBA Draft’s future participants, as both top prospects and those looking to work their way into the conversation hit the national spotlight for the first time all season. While there are plenty of nationally televised games broadcasted throughout the course of the regular season, none of them come with the same shine — or the same meaning — as those in the tournament. March gives collegiate players a chance to show out, and that often has some sway in how people view these prospects.
While the tournament shouldn’t provide the only basis for a player’s positioning come draft night, it does give scouts and fans alike a feel for how players respond to pressurized moments, as well as how they match up with players who they otherwise wouldn’t face. It pits unique styles against unique players and boasts a certain spectacle that simply makes it mean more. No, you shouldn’t overreact to a single NCAA run — but you also shouldn’t overlook it.
This year’s tournament was highlighted not only by consistently-questionable officiating, but also some really good basketball. We saw teams that weren’t supposed to make runs — South Carolina, Florida — get by on the virtues of defense and big shot-making, while some of the league’s better teams were faced with some abnormally challenging matchups. A handful of teams were slotted unfairly low in the field, but that inevitably brought out matchups like Kentucky v.s. Wichita State and Kentucky v.s. UCLA — two marquee matchups before we even reached the Elite 8.
It was also a tournament of firsts, with Gonzaga and the aforementioned South Carolina both making their first Final Four appearances ever, while Oregon — who went through one of the more dynamic college teams in recent memory in Kansas — made their first appearence in the Final Four since 1939, the inaugural year of the tournament when there was only an eight team field.
Several players showed out, while others got trumped by better teams on better days. Here are some players whose stock shifted the most.
Zach Collins, PF/C, Gonzaga
14 points, 13 rebounds and 6 blocks in 23 minutes on the court. That’s the stat line Collins amassed in Gonzaga’s victory over South Carolina, punching the Zags’ ticket to the championship game while also providing a culminating point for one of college basketball’s more underrated seasons. Despite backing up 7'1'’, 300-pound mountain Przemek Karnowski in a veteran-laden rotation, Collins — a McDonald’s All-American this past summer — has been the Bulldogs most talented player in spurts, putting himself into the fringe lottery conversation this season should he declare.
There isn’t any part of Collins’ game that signals star upside, but he does do a number of things at a very, very high level. He’s a talented scorer at multiple levels, boasting a 3-point shot in combination with a diverse scoring arsenal on the interior. He’s also a high energy rebounder, while showing excellent defensive fundamentals for a 19-year-old. With long arms and under-appreciated athleticism, Collins does a nice job of staying vertical and bothering shots at a high clip underneath the rim, while wielding the lateral quickness needed to slide out to the perimeter without being an overt liability.
There’s still a chance Collins returns to school for a shot at the top 10 next season, but he seems all but locked into the top 20 should he decide to make the jump this summer. He has the two-way versatility to fill a sizable role in today’s league, and that should make him money that’s difficult to pass up.
Stock: UP
Draft Range: Late Lottery/Mid-First Round
NBA Role: Backup Center/Solid Starter; Skilled Two-Way Contributor
Jordan Bell, PF/C, Oregon
Before Bell missed a pair of rebounds that would eventually seal a Final Four loss to North Carolina, he went on one heck of a defensive tear to propel Oregon there. The bouncy 6'9'’ big man averaged 13.2 rebounds and 3 blocks per contest during the tournament, including an 8-block performance in Oregon’s Elite 8 upset over Kansas. Bell looked the part of an NBA-level energy guy, with his defensive effort stifling some of college basketball’s better scorers on the interior.
Bell still has some concerns from an NBA perspective, as his thinner build and less-than-ideal height limits his ability to play the five spot — where he’d be best suited in today’s league. He doesn’t possess much of an offensive game away from the rim, and struggles to consistently finish on that end of the floor.
Regardless, though, Bell has done more than enough to assure a spot come draft night. Limitations aside, he projects well as somebody who can provide an immediate spark off the bench, both on the boards and via defensive intensity. Teams need guys who go out and compete hard on every possession, and Bell embodied that type of inborn work ethic. Bell has a couple of legitimate NBA-level skills, and that’s not always a surefire sentiment in the later stages of the draft.
Stock: UP
Draft Range: Second Round
NBA Role: Reserve; Defensive Energy
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Arizona
Markkanen is widely projected as a top 10 pick this upcoming June, and that’s not likely to change all that much. There were, however, some very concerning sequences during the tournament, as he displayed the weaknesses that will hinder him most at the NBA level.
At 7 foot, Markkanen’s game is based almost solely on the perimeter — which fits the trends of today’s league in theory, but can limit his productivity at times. He’s the best pure shooter in the upper echelon of the class, providing a dynamic pick-and-pop threat as well as an elite spot-up option on the perimeter. He couples that with the body control and fluidity needed to attack closeouts and get to his spots in the mid-range game as well, albeit that’s where some of his more pressing concerns begin.
The Finnish freshman’s lack of strength and polish once he ventures off the 3-point line is something that consistently hurt him during the tournament, especially during Arizona’s loss to Xavier in the Sweet 16. He can get pushed around by stronger bodies on the interior, while his lack of production there means teams can — at times — afford to hide weaker (or smaller) defenders on him when he’s stationed on the perimeter, allowing them to focus their defensive efforts elsewhere on the floor.
His offensive potential is abundantly clear, but so are the hurdles he has to clear to attain that. He’s already a markedly worse defender than some of the lottery prospects slotted around him and must overcome those offensive limitations in order to avoid becoming a one-dimensional role player, rather than reaching his ceiling as a top-flight starter.
Stock: DOWN
Draft Range: Mid/Late Lottery
NBA Role: Sixth Man/Starter; Stretch Four
Dwayne Bacon, SG, Florida State
It’s becoming harder and harder to see the appeal with Bacon, and Florida State’s second round exit only worsened his standing. The former McDonald’s All-American has all the athletic tools needed for an NBA wing — bouncy 6'5'’ frame with a 6'10'’ wingspan — but his game simply isn’t conducive to winning basketball in any one role.
He’s an inconsistent 3-point shooter whose stroke doesn’t provide much confidence heading to the next level, while his decision making is consistently underwhelming. He dribbles into tough situations, is a reluctant passer and gets drawn into tunnel vision far too often. This was a Seminoles team devoid of spacing — so that clogged things up a bit — but his style of play certainly didn’t help resolve any of those issues.
In an ideal world he figures to be a plus defender who can become a passable spot-up shooter off the bench, but he has some serious work to do in order to reassure him such a spot in an NBA rotation. He’s more of a streaky scorer than a reliable contributor as it stands.
Stock: DOWN
Draft Range: Second Round
NBA Role: Reserve; Athletic Defender/Scorer In Spurts
Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
In all likelihood, Lonzo is probably still coming off the board second to Los Angeles — or whomever the second pick belongs to — but his weaknesses were on full display in UCLA’s Sweet 16 loss to Kentucky. Perhaps the most important thing to note, though, is that it happened against an NBA caliber defender in De’Aaron Fox.
Ball is a generational college player. There’s no questioning that. He completely revolutionized UCLA’s program, upending it’s offensive schemes while changing the culture both on and off the floor. He made everybody around him produce at a higher level while transforming the Bruins into college basketball’s most explosive offensive team. How well what he did at the collegiate levels translates to the NBA, though, remains undetermined.
There are some serious flaws in Ball’s game that are going to limit the scope of his impact at the next level, with his scoring arsenal being first and foremost. His jumper, which resembles a slingshot from his left hip more so than a traditional jump shot, takes extremely long to roll of his hands. He can can’t go right off the dribble — because he has to shoot across this body, angling his feet towards the rim — and he won’t be able to work off the dribble from mid-range against bigger, quicker NBA defenders.
That relegates his scoring arsenal to spot-up shooting and off-ball cuts, which caps his upside in a unique fashion when comparing him to the likes of Markelle Fultz and Dennis Smith Jr., even if Ball is the most gifted playmaker.
Fox helped double down on that notion, as he contained Ball with consistent success as one of those bigger, quicker NBA defenders. He didn’t get dribble penetration at all, while his lack of plus athleticism limited his defensive effectiveness as well. He has the size and length to be effective on that end, but could get out-paced by some of the NBA’s more explosive athletes.
STOCK: DOWN
Draft Range: Top 3 Pick
NBA Role: Starter/Potential Star; Elite Facilitator
De’Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky
Speaking of Mr. Fox (perhaps the most aptly named of all prospects given his speed), his stock went up rather consistently throughout the tournament. Kentucky’s lead guard still has some concerns stemming from his lamentable shooting on the perimeter, but his improvement from mid-range and increasing comfort level on the offensive end made him one of the month’s most impressive performers.
He’s the fastest guard end-to-end in college basketball, and utilizes a quick first step to blow by his defenders and find his spots on the floor with virtually no resistance when facing lower-level defenders in the halfcourt. He has an array of floaters he can fall back on around the paint, while his ability to finish through contact — or above the rim — makes him one of the more dangerous slashers you’ll come across. He’s not John Wall, but the outlines of their games certainly draw some valid comparisons.
Fox sliced up Lonzo and company in Kentucky’s victory over UCLA, going off for 39 points while holding the best player in the world (per LaVar Ball) in check as well as anyone we’ve seen this season. It’s tough to get excited about a point guard who hasn’t shown he can shoot from distance, but Fox could be an exception as long as he continues to improve in time. He’s a top-flight defender and one of the more impressive offensive guards in virtually every other facet — and this tournament moved him up a lot of draft boards.
Stock: UP
Draft Range: Mid-Lottery
NBA Role: Starter; Slasher/Facilitator
Justin Jackson, SF, North Carolina
Jackson — who won ACC Player of the Year honors this season — is one of the more interesting cases in this year’s draft class. After shooting just 29.2% from 3-point range during his sophomore campaign, the junior has upped it to 38.2 this season while elevating the remainder of his game around that.
En route to the national championship game, Jackson averaged 20.2 points per contest during the tournament (prior to his ugly final showing), displaying the improvements that have launched him into the lottery conversation just a year removed from being widely considered a second round talent. At 6'8'’, his length gives him a number of advantages on the wing. He moves well off the ball for a player of that stature, gunning around screens and finding his spots with a high success rate. He can then elevate off the bounce or the catch and shoot over his defender, albeit his funky release could cause some struggles early on at the next level.
He’s also an energetic defender, making up for his lack of strength with great hustle in the passing lanes and impressive lateral mobility. He needs to work on his fundamentals — and will be overpowered by stronger wings to begin his career — but the willingness to compete and requisite physical tools are already in place.
Jackson’s streaky tendencies on offense, as well as his somewhat chaotic off-the-dribble game, leave a few lingering question marks that make it difficult to laud him as a surefire lottery talent. His stock, however, is firmly in that conversation — and his ceiling is high enough to warrant it in the right situation.
Stock: UP
Draft Range: Late Lottery/Mid-First Round
NBA Role: Solid Reserve/Potential Starter; High Octane Scorer
Sindarius Thornwell, PG/SG, South Carolina
Thornwell’s Gamecocks made a surprise Final Four run this year, all while he established his standing as a likely draftee this June. The 22-year-old senior was among the SEC’s most prolific offensive players during his final campaign, tallying 21.7 points per contest before upping that average to 23.6 during the tournament.
While there’s still not much ground to stand on in regards to dubbing Thornwell a first round talent, he has shown the tools needed to carve out a solid niche at the next level. He has the size needed to be an NBA wing (6'5'’ with a 6'9'’ wingspan) while boasting the playmaking chops needed to transition to point guard in some capacity, something that could improve his chances of sticking on a roster at the next level.
Thornwell’s scoring, though, is going to be his strong suit, as Carolina was able to throw him into a myriad of different sets with sustained success throughout the tournament. He showed touch operating out of the post with turnaround jumpers and nice vision while his perimeter shooting made him a maven when coming around screens and spotting up on the perimeter. When combining that with his transition prowess, he has the offensive game needed to work out a niche moving forward.
Stock: UP
Draft Range: Second Round
NBA Role: Reserve; Bench Spark Plug/Secondary Initiator
