New Orleans Pelicans: Free Agent Targets
On the precipice of the free agency moratorium, the Pelicans may be more active than in seasons past whether via typical signings or via sign and trade opportunities.
Guaranteed Contracts: $ 82,755,298 (7 roster spots)
Team Options + Unguaranteed Contracts: $ 4,493,531 (3 roster spots)
Cap Holds: $ 24,059,834
Space Under the Cap: 0
Possible Space (renounce Team Options, waive unguaranteed contracts and cap holds): $ 13,432,237
It’s tough thinking about free agency when your team has literally never made a big splash there. The biggest free agency signing the Pelicans have historically made include: Solomon Hill — E’Twaun Moore — Langston Galloway — Robin Lopez — Peja Stojakovic. Not a exactly a list of who’s who.
Yes. Those are the type of free agents the Pelicans sign. So the odds of the Pelicans making a big splash in free agency are close to nil. In fact Dell Demps’ biggest moves have come from the trade market (Holiday trade, Asik trade) or in the Restricted Free Agents or Sign and Trade market (Evans S&T, Anderson S&T). This doesn’t mean the Pelicans can’t make a splash. They can, it just won’t be with the biggest free agents. So here are 6 players the Pelicans could target in free agency. Let’s split this to whether they decide to operate over (probable) or under (possible):
Over the Cap:
James Johnson:
If Miami strikes gold in free agency, signing Hayward or Griffin to a max deal (or near it), they won’t have enough money to sign both him and Waiters. In that case, the Pelicans have to look hard into offering Johnson the full NT-MLE (worth a starting contract of 8.4). In New Orleans, he’ll probably absorb all the backup PF minutes (somewhere around 20~24 minutes) where he’ll get to play alongside Anthony Davis or DeMarcus Cousins. He’s not a knockdown shooter but he provides Gentry with another playmaker (when the inevitable doubles come on AD/Boogie) and can be another cog in a system that prefers to switch a lot of on- and off-ball screens.
Ian Clark:
With Golden State’s priorities focused on re-signing Steph, KD, Iggy and Shaun (and rightfully so), Clark could become an expendable piece, as Tim Kawakami reported. A portion of the Non Tax Mid Level Exception could be used here. His strength limits him mostly to guarding point guards but he could pair nicely with AD & Boogie since he’s a smart cutter (thanks Warriors!), a solid shooter (career 36.4 percent from deep) and a long defender (6'6").
Justin Holiday:
There are strong indications that he wants to finally play with his brother. Ideally, he could be signed for a portion of the NT-MLE. He’s a solid 3&D candidate: he shot 35 percent from deep over the last 3 seasons, he’s long and between him, his brother, Moore, Hill, AD and slim Boogie, the Pelicans have all the tools to make a successful switch-heavy defense.
Under the Cap:
This is a nightmare situation as it probably means Jrue is not coming back. Nevertheless, it’s a possibility.
Patty Mills:
Mills could command a contract somewhere starting between 9 to 12 million (see: Lin and Dellavedova contracts). In need of more shooting, Patty Mills is the perfect candidate. He’s a career 40 percent 3-point shooter, and he’s a well-beloved Spur (that’s all the evidence you need really).
Jeff Teague :
Teague could command a contract somewhere north of Lin (12M starting) but somewhere below Evan Turner (17.5 starting). He’s a worse Holiday, just in terms of overall talent, but could oddly fit better in a pace-and-space offense. He’s become a workable shooter and he’s an inconsistent defender, but on a lineup with Moore, Hill, AD and Boogie, there could be a way to hide him. (The Pelicans might have to trade Ajinca or Quincy Pondexter for space).
Darren Collison:
Collison is another solid replacement for Holiday. He’s a worse Teague (who’s a worse Holiday) but he is still a better fit on a pace-and-space offense. He doesn’t attack the basket as much as Teague, but he’s a much more aggressive playmaker than Holiday. He’s shot the ball well from deep (on a limited number of attempts), and he’s a high character that could come way cheaper than Holiday.
Other Offseason Approaches:
While the Pelicans could look at the above free agents the reality is they aren’t generally active players in free agency. Therefore, it may behoove Dell Demps to look at restricted free agents or opt for sign and trade options. They’ve dabbled in both the restricted free agency market (basically the Sign & Trade market) and the general trade market. This is, possibly and probably, where the Pelicans could bolster their roster. Here’s a look at 6 possible targets that the Pelicans can grab, possibly with a future first round pick.
Restricted Free Agency
Most restricted free agents stay with their teams, especially rookies coming off their rookie contracts. Off the 126 restricted free agency signings since 2011, 88 of them signed with their own team (69.3 percent). Of the 38 who didn’t stay with their teams, 8 of them were from S&T (Sign and Trade) — 3 of which were from executed by Dell Demps, the other 5 were executed by 5 different franchises. So, if there’s someone who’s going to do a S&T, it’s Demps.
The best way for the Pelicans to go this route is to aggregate the contracts of Alexis Ajinca, Quincy Pondexter (expiring) and any of their 3 unguaranteed contracts (Quinn Cook, Axel Toupane, Jordan Crawford). That totals $13.3 million, which means the Pelicans could accept as much as $16.6 million via an incoming contract.
Tim Hardaway Jr.
With the Howard trade, and Paul Millsap unlikely to re-sign, it may be time for the Hawks to, as Kevin O’ Connor would say, BLOW IT UP. That could mean Tim Hardaway Jr. could become a S&T option for the Pelicans if they include a lightly protected first round pick.
He’s a volume shooter who has proven capable of becoming a cog in a pace-and-space offense. He’s the type of gunner you want beside Holiday, Hill, AD and Boogie.
Shabazz Muhammad:
The arrival of Jimmy Butler and Thibodeau’s penchant for defensive minded players has made Muhammad expendable. I’d imagine a S&T deal could be made here if two future 2nd round picks were added.
His most important skill set (post offense) is highly redundant on a team that already features AD and Boogie. But he’s an efficient scorer, despite the cramped up spacing in Minnesota, so there’s no doubt he could find a way to continue his efficient work. If he could just add a consistent 3-point shot, he could be a valuable asset off the bench.
Tony Snell:
This is the most unlikely of the 3 RFA options because Milwaukee isn’t rebuilding and he’s well liked both in the front office and among fans. His fit works well with the rest of the Bucks’ core. Nevertheless, this is still a possible route, especially if Demps is willing to go as far as giving an unprotected 2018 pick.
He’s part of the rare 3&D group: long and aggressive enough to cover multiple positions, and has improved his shooting enough from deep to be a real threat.
Trade Market
Eric Bledsoe:
It’s been rumored that Phoenix is interested in trading Bledsoe for a first round pick. Demps — and his penchant for trading future first picks — could oblige, especially if Jrue becomes too costly.
Bledsoe’s health issues aside, he’s one of the better lead guards in the league. He’s one of the more aggressive slashers in the league (9th most drives in the league), a feisty defender, and is a “workable” shooter (35 percent over the last 2 years).
Patrick Beverley:
If the Clippers strike out on Griffin and decide to, you guessed it, BLOW IT UP, Demps could be more than happy to give the Clippers a future first (and maybe even a couple of second rounders) to take Beverley off their hands.
Beverley could be the guy who leads this team — along with Darren Erman and Anthony Davis — to a Top-5 finish in Defensive Rating. He’s a scrappy, tough defender, and a solid 3-point shooter who’s learned how to generate offense, in spurts.
Evan Fournier:
The Magic have a lot of incentive to trade Fournier: at some point, they have to give Hezonja the playing time he needs to develop. That’s not happening with Fournier and his $17 million contract.
Fournier is another gunner and a shooter. He’s expanded his game considerably in Orlando. Just like with Hardaway, Fournier could be the gunner the team needs. He’s still 24 and could further expand his game playing alongside AD and Boogie. That starting lineup has enough talent to get to the second round of the playoffs and could wreak some havoc. But the money committed is the bigger problem (That starting lineup could cost upwards of $100M each year).
This is one of the, if not the most, pivotal offseason in Pelicans history. AD is entering the 2nd year of his mega 5-year extension and Boogie’s entering free agency next season. Getting this offseason right — whether through trade or through the free agency market — could mean one of two things: it could be the start of something special or the beginning of the end for the Anthony Davis era.
