Oklahoma City Thunder/Houston Rockets Playoff Preview
16 Wins A Ring Writers offer 3 different perspectives on each first round series
The Numbers:
Regular season: Houston won 3–1
Rockets 115.3 PPG for (2nd in NBA)/109.6 PPG allowed (26th in NBA)
Thunder 106.6 PPG for (11th in NBA)/105.8 PPG allowed (16th in NBA)
Rockets record vs Western Conference playoff teams: 12–13
Thunder record vs Western Conference playoff teams: 11–15
Oklahoma City Preview by David Brandon
Oklahoma City Thunder Series X Factor: Billy Donovan.
He’s played 250 different lineups this year, tinkering with groups that have no hope of being successful and groups that are very successful in equal measure. You never know who’s going to play with each other or for how long.
Last year, Donovan took a not-very-promising regular season lineup with Kanter at the 4 and proceeded to brutalize the ancient Spurs front line, refusing to double LaMarcus Aldridge even when he lit the Thunder on fire and stomped on the ashes in the first two games. Then he went small against the Warriors and played Roberson at power forward for stretches. Next he put Durant and Ibaka at the 4 and 5. They came within a Klay Thompson Nuclear Explosion™ with Roberson in foul trouble from making the NBA Finals.
This year will be the test of whether this is indicative of Donovan actually playing possum in the regular season to learn his roster’s capabilities, or whether it was just the roster over performing (seriously, Roberson hitting that many 3s had me looking at the sky for signs of the apocalypse). It’s a worse roster, but Donovan’s gotten the best out of limited guys before. Let’s see if he can do it again.
Oklahoma City Thunder Series MVP:
Is there any answer other than Westbrook?
Let’s be real here: no one on this team is going to out perform Russ in this series. Not even if Patrick Beverley suddenly morphs into prime Gary Payton. Victor Oladipo’s the only one who’d even have a prayer of snatching this from Russ, but I can’t see him stringing together enough inhuman performances over the course of a series to do it.
Westbrook is the motor of the offense on this roster. Oladipo and Kanter are the only other players that can consistently create a shot on the team, and if you think the Thunder are going to play Kanter heavy minutes and watch him get eaten alive in Harden/Capela pick and rolls…well, I’ve got some oceanfront property in Oklahoma to sell you.
That being said, Kanter will definitely have a role, especially if they can keep Roberson next to him. But he’s not going to swing the series. That job, just as it has all season, will fall squarely on Westbrook’s shoulders.
Oklahoma City Thunder Key Advantage Over Houston Rockets:
Defense.
In simple terms, the Thunder are good at it and the Rockets aren’t. And the Thunder can take away some of the things the Rockets like to do. They’re sixth in the NBA in lowest defended 3-point attempts as a percentage of team shots per game and fourth in the number of defended 3-point attempts.
Three point attempts tend to be a better indication of a team’s perimeter defense than percentage, since 3-point percentage is prone to heavy variance. Teams with low 3-point attempts against them tend to be good at running their opponents off the line, and that’s what the Thunder do.
They’re also the third best team in the NBA by percentage at cleaning the defensive glass, behind only the defensively conservative Charlotte Hornets and the man-mountain Pistons. Not a lot of second chance opportunities here.
One matchup to watch, though, will be defensive ace Andre Roberson against the Beard. In 4-games this season, Roberson has completely smothered Harden, forcing him to shoot 34% from the field and 22% from 3-point range with 2 less attempts at the line than his usual numbers. Harden put up 10 points less than his season average against Oklahoma City, though his assist totals ticked up a hair.
If you can turn Harden into a passer, you stand a chance. He’s still going to get numbers, but every little advantage you can use to stack the deck in your favor helps in the playoffs.
Oklahoma City Thunder Key Disadvantage Over Houston Rockets:
The Thunder’s offense is awful.
The only thing keeping them afloat is transition. Without it they plummet to the bottom of the league in scoring. If Houston can get their 3-point shooters going and the Thunder can’t stop them, the game is over. They can’t shoot from outside (dead last in the league in 3-point percentage).
They can’t score in the half court because their spacing is horrible. When Westbrook drives the lane, Roberson’s man roams without fear and Westbrook often winds up driving into 3 guys with limited dump-off options. If Houston blunts the tip of the lance in Westbrook’s transition scoring and passing, the Thunder are dead in the water. Because if it becomes a scoring battle, they’ll lose.
Move Roberson to Power Forward:
Play Roberson at power forward! It’s been brought out occasionally in the regular season, even if he’s a nominal small forward. The power forward goes out of the paint and spots up outside (probably Sabonis or Grant), and Roberson runs pick and roll with Westbrook.
He’s not a really good passer, but he’s good enough ability to make reads out of the short roll, and he’s got the size and athleticism to hold his own in the paint. This year he’s flashed limited playmaking ability and a much improved handle, and using him more creatively will help the Thunder keep his defender involved in the play so he can’t blow up Westbrook.
Series Prediction: Rockets over Thunder in 6 games
In the end, I really don’t think the Thunder can muster enough offense to keep up with the Rockets. They’ll slow Harden down, but I could definitely see Eric Gordon and Lou Williams having an outrageous series. I could be wrong, but in the postseason when the game slows down and possessions tend to count more, the Thunder just don’t have the juice to compete.
Houston Preview by Mitchell Evans
Houston Rockets’ Series X Factor:
The X Factor player for the Rockets isn’t much of a stretch — it’s James Harden. That is because Houston’s offensive system starts and ends via Harden. Although the team as a whole has set a record via the number of threes made in a season, Harden is the player who initiates most of his cohorts attempts.
Luckily for this Houston team, you don’t live and die by Harden making shots. While Harden will probably get you 30 every night, if his shots aren’t falling, they have the firepower to pick up the slack Harden needs.
Outside of Harden, the other potential team X Factor is 3-point efficiency. Much will depend on whether the Rockets make shots or not. They could very easily sweep this series if they successfully connect on the normal percent of shots they take or above. But, they could also very easily end up pushing the series to 6 or maybe even 7 games if their shots don’t fall.
It’s a very odd line for the Rockets to teeter on, but with how many shooters they have, it’s akin to the Warriors in that when one guy is cold, the next guy will likely step up and start hitting.
Houston Rockets’ MVP:
The series MVP will no doubt be James Harden. While the overall MVP debate is very close between Harden and Westbrook, this one will not be.
James Harden should lead his Rockets over the Thunder and it would be no surprise to me if Harden posts a series average of 33 points, 12 assists and 8 rebounds per game.
Russell might get a triple double every game of the series, but this is where you’ll see individual numbers can only take you so far.
Houston Rockets Key Advantage Over Oklahoma City Thunder:
The Rockets have a clear advantage over the Thunder in spacing, shooting, and pace. These three things are essential to winning basketball in today’s NBA.
The spacing the Rockets have in comparison to the Thunder sits on opposite ends of the spectrum. The resulting effect is visibly apparent when Westbrook attacks off a pick and roll, in comparison to when Harden attacks due to spacing. Harden has plenty of space to find shooters or his roll man, and this will be a key in the series. The team that gets cleaner looks at the rim will almost always take the series.
The Rockets ability to shoot is going to keep them in any series. Their shooting ability and efficiency is much better than the Thunders. Most observers think it is all about three point shots — period for the Rockets. While the perimeter plays a huge role, this Rockets team will also beat you inside, at the rim. To wit, if Oklahoma City tries to cheat the three, they will pay for it in the paint.
Lastly, the pace provides another key advantage for the Rockets. Yes, the playoffs feature a much slower pace in comparison to the regular season. But, the pace the Rockets play will still be noticeably faster than that of the Thunder, particularly in the half court. For the Rockets this will inevitably offer additional shot opportunities which logically should produce increased scoring.
Houston Rockets Key Disadvantage Over Oklahoma City Thunder:
While the Rockets are adept at scoring in the paint, it is also their greatest vulnerability. Clint Capela does a nice job protecting and scoring inside, but facing the likes of Steven Adams and Enes Kanter may result in an equal trade off. Worse, with the sheer volume of bigs OKC can send inside it’s sure to take a toll on Capela. Factor in Westbrook flying at him full speed and this is a recipe for disaster. Moreover, this Thunder team lead the league in offensive and total rebounds.
Kanter is a big question mark for this series. His ability to score off the bench could keep the Thunder in these games. And, if Lou Williams has a rough night and the bench can’t get it going, then Kanter could eat them alive. On the bright side, James Harden plays so many minutes they should be able to limit this disadvantage.
One interesting disadvantage is Harden’s regular season versus postseason free throw discrepancy. To that end, Harden averages just 7.0 free throw attempts per game in the playoffs compared to 10.9 in season. That plays a major part in Harden’s game since as it represents close to 10 points (9.2) per game for James. If Harden gets 7 or fewer free throws per game in this series, it could be the difference in winning and losing.
Last, but not least is Russell Westbrook. This guy is a train flying a hundred miles an hour at all times. Although I may criticize the Thunder ball movement and Westbrook’s offense no one can deny just how explosive he is. The Rockets have no one who can stop Westbrook, and this disadvantage could cost the Rockets literally 40 points a game. Westbrook has been on a tear all season. Don’t expect this series to be any different. Suffice to say Westbrook’s attack mode mentality is a major disadvantage for the Rockets.
Rockets Need To Crash the Glass:
Going off the recent numbers, the Thunder completely wipe up the boards, particularly on the offensive glass. In their last meeting, the Thunder dominated, grabbing 15 offensive rebounds to the Rockets 2. The reason this becomes a crucial factor is while Houston get more possessions if OKC grab extra boards it offers additional fast break and second chance opportunities for them. Therefore, by controlling the glass it equates to controlling the game. Of all the lessons learned in season this should be the main takeaway.
Defensively for the Rockets, it’s obviously an impossible task to game plan to stop Westbrook. One option is to allow Westbrook his 40 or 45 points, but ensuring no one else gets hot. They need to play tight on Oladipo, box out Steven Adams to limit his rebounds , and live with Roberson taking threes. The Thunder aren’t an offense to be afraid of, so let Westbrook be Westbrook, but don’t let anyone else beat you.
Series Prediction: Rockets over Thunder in 5 games
I say this not because I think the two teams won’t have good games, but because I think the Thunder will get exposed by the Rockets. This series easily teeters between being a quick 5-game series and the full 7-games. But, in my opinion the Rockets should easily take care of business in 5 games.
Bottom line, this is the redemption series for James Harden. Everyone knows he wants the MVP trophy, and in a lot of minds they think Westbrook is walking away with the trophy. This series may not have implications on the trophy itself, but on Harden’s mental state. He enters believing Westbrook snatched that trophy out of his hands.That in itself, could prove to be a scary proposition for the Rockets opponents throughout the playoffs.
Independent Preview by Brendan Vogt
Series X Factor:
The X-factor in this series is Victor Oladipo. More specifically, his defense on James Harden. Oladipo was drafted with high upside defensively, and in this series he will have a chance to solidify his status as an impact player on that end.
James Harden has put together one of the greatest offensive seasons in the history of basketball. There is no stopping him, one can only hope to contain him. If Oladipo can avoid sending Harden to the FT line, while limiting his three-point attempts, then OKC has a slim chance.
Throughout his career, Harden averages .5 less made FT’s during the playoffs than he does in the regular season — per Basketball-Reference. This number isn’t eye-popping, but it could be interpreted as reflective of referees being less inclined to award stars with ticky-tack calls in the playoffs. Harden lives for these. He can go cold from deep, and in those moments he looks to draw free throws when his team needs a bucket. Don’t bail him out. This dude doesn’t need any more help.
The offensive production will come. Russell Westbrook is a force of nature, and he’ll have no problem getting his against a miserable defensive team in Houston. The key is slowing down The Beard.
Series MVP:
It’s hard to envision this award going to a player that didn’t emerge victorious. It’s harder to envision the Thunder winning this series. That actually makes this decision quite easy.
The series MVP is the same player who should win the regular season MVP: James Harden.
Yes, Mike D’Antoni is an innovator, but Harden is the engine that drives this dynamic offense. His glorious drive and kick power is the flaming red sun at the center of Houston’s solar system. With the Rockets’ many shooters orbiting him, The Beard can scorch virtually any defense. One has to think he’ll have no trouble getting his against Russ and the Thunder.
This pick is not meant to downplay what Westbrook has done this year, or what should be expected of him in this series. But it’s just tough to imagine this Houston team losing. Harden is just too good, and his team is far better. Watch Westbrook prove me wrong though.
Key Factor in Series:
The key factor in this series is depth. I think it’s safe to assume that Houston will get MVP-esque production from James Harden, but one of the big advantages the Rockets hold here is their talented second unit.
It’s quite the privilege to be able to ask a career starter to slide into a bench role, and to do so without seeing any significant drop-off in production. That’s been the case for Houston with Eric Gordon.
According to Basketball-Reference: Gordon made just over five threes per 100 possessions, and he did it while shooting thirty-seven percent from behind the arc. He also totaled just under four win shares this season, which is the third highest mark of his career.
This guy has a solid chance at Sixth-Man of the Year award, and if it’s not Gordon, it might be his teammate Lou Williams. Per 100 possessions, Lou is averaging the most points of his career, and doing it in one of his more efficient seasons.
It’s a series changer to start a line up with an MVP candidate, and then trot out a second unit with the two leading candidates for Sixth Man of the Year.
Can Westbrook go toe-to-toe with Harden and the starters? Don’t rule it out. But, if Houston is also getting significant production from Gordon and Lou, then OKC doesn’t stand much of a chance.
Series Prediction: Houston over Oklahoma City in 5 games
Don’t confuse how tight the MVP race is with how close these teams are in terms of talent. Russ can steal at least one game against any opponent — in any series — through sheer will power alone. But there is a limit to how good he can make this Thunder team.
The Thunder were 33–9 when Westbrook posted a triple double. Which is one of the greatest stats you will ever see in any sport at any point in human history. But as Matt Moore pointed out: Only 13 of his 33 triple-doubles in wins were against teams over .500.
Lost in how impressive Westbrook’s super-saiyan moments were, was how often they were required for the Thunder to win — even against some of the league’s worst teams. Houston is one of the elite teams in all of basketball, and in a seven-game-series, OKC is simply over matched.
You can make a good argument for taking Westbrook over Harden in the MVP race — but there are no great arguments for picking OKC over Houston in this series. This Houston team has the depth that its previous iterations lacked, and they’ve got a real shot at a title. This is the end of the road for the Thunder.
