Orlando Magic Offseason in Review
The Magic were limited by their past mistakes, but big upgrades to the bench and few bad contracts made this offseason a success.
A year ago, the Magic burdened themselves with high expectations: a quest to make the playoffs, a last-ditch effort by management to save their jobs, and a chance to bring a close to a rebuild that has long since worn out its welcome.
Now, the Magic are burdened by the aftermath of the failure to reach those goals. High-money, long term deals to several players, trades that sent away young players, and even more turnover within the organization have left the Magic in a rough spot. With no obvious path to greatness and no interest in bottoming out again, there appeared to be no good options for the Magic’s new management team, headed by Jeff Weltman and John Hammond.
Needs:
With the playoffs still firmly in the organization’s plans, the Magic needed to do whatever they could to upgrade holes all across the roster while avoiding the kind of bad money that got them in this situation in the first place. Decisions on Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon will have to come at some point in the near future, but in the short term the team needed to find better players at virtually every reserve position. If a fair opportunity presented itself, moving some of their bad contracts would have also been wise.
Coach Frank Vogel spoke openly at the end of the season about the Magic’s need to modernize on both ends of the court by finding versatile, switchable players to defend the 3-point arc and drives at the same time, while providing playmaking on the other end. Shooting, as always, is in strong demand in Orlando.
Key Losses:
Jeff Green (UFA, signed with Cavaliers)
Jodie Meeks (UFA, signed with Wizards)
C.J. Watson (waived)
Marcus Georges-Hunt (waived)
Patricio Garino (waived)
Key Additions:
- Draft : Jonathan Isaac (6th overall), Wesley Iwundu (35th overall)
- Free Agents: Jonathon Simmons, Shelvin Mack, Arron Afflalo, Marreese Speights
Projected Depth Chart:
- Starting five: Elfrid Payton, Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
- Bench: Shelvin Mack, Arron Afflalo, Jonathon Simmons, Jonathan Isaac, Bismack Biyombo
Best offseason move: Jonathon Simmons — 3 years, $20 million ($1 million guaranteed in final season)
Simmons’s deal with the Magic symbolized the kind of contacts the Magic signed this season: a solid player being signed for less than expected, without locking up too much long-term money. Simmons was widely expected to remain with the Spurs once his restricted free agency played out, but the Spurs shockingly rescinded his qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent and opening the door for Orlando to swoop in and pick up the D-League success story.
Simmons won’t revolutionize the Magic’s offense, by any means, and his age (28 in September) suggests we shouldn’t expect any grand evolutions in his game, but Simmons is an outstanding defensive player, a great athlete, and knows how to play offense the right way. Even if he turns out to be a low-usage version of Jeff Green with defensive upside, he’ll be helping the Magic in a big way.
Worst offseason move: Shelvin Mack — 2 years, $12 million ($1 million guaranteed in final season)
Signing Mack isn’t a “bad” deal, per se. He checks a lot of the same boxes as Simmons: team friendly contract with a small guarantee in the final season, strong defender, team player. The issue is that it’s unclear how much he helps the Magic from the point guard position. They already have one point guard who can’t shoot in the form of Elfrid Payton, and they’ll be bringing an equally bricky shooter off the bench.
Still, he should be an upgrade over either C.J. Watson or D.J. Augustin. If he can come off the bench and be part of a super-defense lineup than can contain opposing wings, then he’ll do more than enough to be worthwhile.
Season Goals and Expectations:
The goals for the franchise have remained the same: make the playoffs at all costs. Realistically, it’s safest to take a “believe it when I see it” approach to the Magic, especially after they took a big step back last season, but there are a few reasons to be optimistic.
For starters, consider how absolutely terrible their bench was last season, perhaps the worst in the entire league. Augustin, Watson, Green, Mario Hezonja, and Biyombo formed an anti-dream team of epic proportions, sabotaging the team whenever they hit the court, individually or as a bench mob.
In the final stretch of the season, after the Magic traded Serge Ibaka for Terrence Ross, there was reason to be hopeful about what the team could do with their renewed small-ball attack, with Aaron Gordon finally taking his rightful place as the starting power forward. Over the last 24 games of the season, the Payton-Ross-Fournier-Gordon combo — with either Vucevic or Biyombo playing — averaged a +1.4 net rating, per NBA.com. With their core players, the Magic played winning basketball.
The problem was, it didn’t matter because the Magic were overwhelmed by the sheer amount of damage done by their bench. Despite being in the green with their core starters, the team averaged a -7.1 net rating overall post-All Star break. Those “good” lineups played almost half of all the minutes during that period, and were completely dwarfed by the contributions of all their bad lineups the other half of the time.
If you’re looking for a reason to buy into the Magic — again, a risky proposition — start with the bench improvements. Simmons, Mack, Afflalo, and Speights should all be significant upgrades over their bench counterparts from last season. Jonathan Isaac might even find opportunities to contribute defensively. Even if the reserves are merely average, a net zero, that might be enough to push the Magic into playoff contention.
Continuity is a positive force as well, and for the first time the Magic’s most important players will have two consecutive seasons under the same coach. Payton, Gordon, and even Fournier have had to deal with turnover every offseason, but they might show big improvements just by working with the same coaching staff two years in a row.
Don’t let these potential gains fool, you, though. The Magic are still deeply flawed, especially on the offensive end where their lack of shooting will continue to plague them. It would be a miracle if they even cracked a top-20 offensive rating. Their small-ball lineup late in the season was potent, but several years of evidence suggests that without shooting, the Magic will struggle to score.
Defense is a question mark, too. Adding Ibaka, Biyombo, and Vogel was supposed to be a no-brainer path toward an elite defense, and for about a month that appeared to materialize. The improvement proved to be short-lived, unfortunately, especially around the rim where the Magic should have been outstanding. Most of the players they added should help on that end, but they’ll have to make more fundamental changes if they want to see the defense really come together.
Win Projection: 36 wins. The Magic should see improvement from last season, but it’s hard to believe in them until they play average-level basketball for more than a month at a time. I really, really want to expect more, but like I said before, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”
Offseason Grade: B
Without any earthshaking, franchise defining moves, it’s hard to give the Magic an A, but they deserve a B for their solid, mistake-free offseason. They had many opportunities to screw things up, to give out long-term money just to lure a mid-tier free agent, or to overpay just for “veteran experience.” Seeking wins at all costs is usually a dangerous game to play.
In spite of all this, the Magic found a way to put together a positive offseason. After playing some of the worst bench players in the league last season, Orlando looks poised to make big leaps among the reserves. Better yet, every contract signed is very team-friendly, composed of short-term deals and non-guaranteed final seasons, all at very reasonable prices.
In a weak Eastern Conference, that might be just enough to sneak into the playoffs. Orlando’s fandom has not abandoned them, and if the Magic can prove they’re actually worth paying attention to, the Amway Center will rock like it used to years ago.
