Orlando Magic Offseason Preview: Consistency Has Yet To Emerge
The most disappointing season since the rebuild started has left the Orlando Magic facing plenty of uncertainty.
2016–17 Season Review
Entering the 2016–17 season, there was an outside shot that the Orlando Magic would sneak into the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference. Yours truly picked the Magic to win 40 games, building on their 35-win campaign the previous season behind some big offseason acquisitions and a new, theoretically-improved coaching staff. The moves they made: trading for Serge Ibaka, and signing players like Bismack Biyombo and D.J. Augustin, were supposed to be trouble in the long-term, but were for the benefit of putting together a solid team in the short-term.
Instead, it all fell apart in what was probably the worst post-Dwight season yet, relative to expectations. The team was about as bad as people expected on offense (29th in offensive efficiency, ahead of only the 76ers), but the defense was miserable too (24th). Frank Vogel was supposed to bring his trademark defensive schemes and build on Scott Skiles’ progress on that end, but they regressed in almost every way. Most disappointing was the utter lack of rim protection, despite playing two players who are ostensibly experts in the category in Ibaka and Biyombo.
Still, in terms of production, Orlando’s big man rotation was acceptable, and while he was on the team, Ibaka was probably their best player. Instead, the worst position for most of the season was small forward. The Aaron Gordon/Jeff Green/Mario Hezonja combination was devastating on both ends of the court… for Orlando, that is. Gordon was alright, but was ultimately miscast in his role as a wing playmaker. Green and Hezonja, on the other hand, were among the worst players not just on the team, but in the entire league. While RPM should never be used as rankings, but just to provide perspective, Green was 414th out of 468 eligible players, and Hezonja was dead last. That doesn’t mean he was literally the worst player in the league, but it sure does mean he was very far from the best.
Among the guards, Elfrid Payton remains a mystery. At times, he looks like an outdated model for modern point guards, devoid of shooting ability in a league where shooting has become the most important skill for any player to have. Other times, he’s a dynamic penetrator and playmaker who racks up triple-doubles. The truth lies somewhere in between. Evan Fournier took a step back from his breakout 2015–16 season, mostly thanks to his regressed long-range shooting. On a roster sorely lacking in shot creation, he’s often asked to do too much, and his production suffers from it. D.J. Augustin and C.J. Watson were mostly anonymous.
Orlando salvaged what they could by swapping Ibaka for Terrence Ross, but at this point, fans are clinging to what little hope they have left for the current roster based on the potential they showed in the final months of the season. Will Orlando finally discover their true selves playing the small-ball style they did down the stretch? How will Gordon develop as a full-time power forward? Will Payton blossom into the point guard of their future? These are the most important questions they face moving forward.
Where The Magic Stand In The 2017 NBA Draft
The Magic will be selecting sixth, 25th, 33rd and 35th in the Draft. The most important pick, obviously, is that high lottery selection, but what they do there is likely to be decided by the two or three teams ahead of them. It’s extremely unclear who will be taken in each of those spots, and the Magic could end up with one of several different players falling to them. In some mock drafts, like the one here at 16 Wins a Ring, Jayson Tatum fell to sixth. In others, it’s De’Aaron Fox or Jonathan Isaac. If the Magic want them, players like Malik Monk or Lauri Markkanen should be available, too. In other words, there’s a lot of options at №6, and a lot of uncertainty about what those options will be come draft night.
In all likelihood, the Magic will be picking based on talent rather than need: get the best player available and work it out later. Truth be told, Orlando has needs everywhere, at almost every position and skill. Shooting, playmaking, passing and new young talent are all must-haves.
As far as the late picks, I suspect the Magic will find a way to package some of those together into something a little better, or to turn them into future assets. They don’t have the roster space or playing time for three more late first-round or second-round picks, and while the new Lakeland Magic is an appealing option for some of these players, Orlando may decide they’d rather have higher quality shots at players rather than take three chances on low-end prospects.
Potential Contract Extensions, Free Agents
The Magic have decisions to make with the current roster as well, foremost being potential extensions for Gordon and Payton. The former seems likely to stick around, but Payton’s fate is much less certain. They may very well decide to let him become a restricted free agent next offseason and take one more year to evaluate his worth. If he uses that as motivation to put together a break-out season, that’s a win-win for both sides, even if Orlando ends up having to pay more to keep him around.
Two players become unrestricted free agents: Jodie Meeks and Jeff Green. Unless he takes a substantial pay cut, Green is unlikely to return and will be off to his 37th new team next season. Meeks was quite effective while he was healthy, but injuries kept him out of the lineup for most of the season. A Ross-Meek small forward rotation actually sounds pretty solid, but the Magic will have to decide if his injury history is worth the risk, and he may get better offers elsewhere anyway.
Thanks to the contracts they gave Biyombo and Fournier, the Magic have little cap flexibility moving forward. They won’t have enough to give a max contract to anyone without some extra moves to clear space, not that they’re a big free agent destination right now anyway. They’ll probably grab one player in the $10–12 million range and fill out the rest of the roster with minimums and exceptions from there.
Consistency Is The Answer
The Magic’s path to success, ultimately, must lie with consistency. Throughout the year, they teased their potential as an athletic team who competes on both ends, but ultimately, they failed much more than they succeeded. Players like Gordon and Payton haven’t shown as much progress as fans might have hoped, but then you realize they’ve played with four different coaches in three seasons. This is their first offseason training with the same coach as the previous year, and that consistency could be a big deal.
The right answer for this team might be blowing the whole thing up and starting the rebuild again, but that’s not the plan they’ll be following. This team is still in win-now mode, and they’ll make their decisions accordingly. Their new management team is well-respected, but they’ll have their work cut out for them trying to fix this mismatched team.
