San Antonio Spurs/Memphis Grizzlies Playoff Preview
16 Wins A Ring Writers offer 3 different perspectives on each first round series
The Numbers:
Regular season: Tied 2–2
Spurs 105.3 PPG for (14th in NBA)/98.1 PPG allowed (2nd in NBA)
Grizzlies 100.5 PPG for (29th in NBA)/100.0 PPG allowed (3rd in NBA)
Spurs record vs Eastern Conference playoff teams: 14–12
Grizzlies record vs Eastern Conference playoff teams: 12–15
Spurs Preview by Rich Condon
San Antonio Spurs’ Series X Factor: Pau Gasol
It’s not often that a team has not one, but two potential Hall of Famers coming off the bench. Although Gasol has only come off the bench in 25 games this season for the Spurs, the numbers show that he’s been extremely effective in a bench role. In 23.9 minutes per game, Gasol has averaged 13.4 points (on 49 percent shooting from the field, 59 percent from three), and 7.7 rebounds per contest. On the less glamorous end, Gasol has also added a block per game.
Despite the Grizzlies bench owning a top ten defensive rating in the NBA this season, they should prove to be no match for Gasol’s deft shooting touch. Furthermore, Zach Randolph figures to be the man that guards Gasol most of the time. Randolph has allowed 19.3 points in the paint per night, and only holds a 5.7 block percentage on the season.
San Antonio Spurs’ Series MVP : Kawhi Leonard.
Sometimes, the most obvious answer is the best answer. There’s a reason Leonard has been in the MVP conversation for a majority of the season. Kawhi has emerged as one of the five best players in the NBA this season behind 25.5 points per game.
Leonard was a hallmark of efficiency, averaging nearly 50 percent from the floor, 40 percent from three, and he was third in the NBA at 88 percent from the free throw line.
In addition to those sterling numbers, Leonard is the two-time Defensive Player of the Year, and figures to draw the toughest defensive assignment. With Memphis’ lock down defender Tony Allen expected to miss the first round of the playoffs, Leonard should have a relatively easy time on the offensive end. Bottom line: Leonard is the center of the Spurs in the post-Duncan era, and the team can’t go far without him.
San Antonio Spurs Key Advantage Over Memphis Grizzlies:
Depth. Both teams are very familiar with each other, having played in 18 playoff games this century (San Antonio holds a 14–4 record). Every series is different, to be sure, and this year, the Spurs are simply a deeper team.
Although their starting five match up rather well, and Memphis’ brand of grit-n-grind basketball can suck the life out of a team, the Spurs bench should be able to not only keep, but extend, leads against the Grizzlies.
The foursome of Patty Mills, Manu Ginobli, David Lee, and X Factor Pau Gasol have combined for 36.7 points per game off the bench this season, which should be enough of a factor to seal a first round victory for the Spurs.
Depth is an even bigger advantage for the Spurs as the Grizzles have run into a recent run of bad injury luck. Tony Allen is out indefinitely with a calf injury, James Ennis’ status is unknown with a knee injury, and Chandler Parsons is out for the season (as is tradition).
San Antonio Spurs Key Disadvantage Over Memphis Grizzlies:
Second chance points. The Spurs are a very capable team on the glass, finishing the season tied for tenth with 43.9 rebounds per game, 33.9 of which come on the defensive end. Furthermore, the Spurs are 6th in the NBA, grabbing 77.6 percent of defensive rebounds. Conversely, the Grizzlies are 10th in the NBA with 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, and are 9th in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing 24.8 percent of offensive rebounds.
Another guest appearance from Captain Obvious: allowing one of the three teams in the NBA that play at a slower pace than the Spurs more opportunities to score is bad.
Time for Popovich to cut Kawhi Leonard loose:
When these two teams met in the regular season (they finished tied at 2–2), Coach Popovich usually started the game with Danny Green, who’s a more than capable defender, guarding Mike Conley. He did this in order to keep Kawhi out of potential foul trouble and would switch Leonard onto Conley later in the game. It’s a tactic that Coach Pop employs fairly regularly, however, he shouldn’t here.
The referees swallow their whistles during the playoffs and Leonard, standing at 6’7” with a 7’0” wingspan, would envelop Conley and almost completely neutralize the Grizzlies already relatively impotent offense. With Tony Allen out indefinitely with a calf injury, and James Ennis’ status unknown at this time, the Grizzlies will most likely turn to Vince Carter and Troy Daniels to start on the wings for them. Neither should be much of a problem defensively for Tony Parker and Danny Green.
Series Prediction: Spurs over Grizzlies in 5 games
Before Tony Allen got hurt, I thought Memphis would win two games. Without him, however, it’s going to be exceedingly difficult for the Grizzlies to neutralize Kawhi Leonard. On top of that, the Spurs finished the regular season with the best defensive rating (100.9) in the NBA, and the 7th best offensive rating at 108.8, which yielded the second best net rating at 7.9.
It’s worth noting the two sides have played each other close this season, finishing the season series in a 2–2 tie. However, Memphis simply doesn’t have the firepower on offense to keep up, which is further compounded by the fact that they were the third slowest team in pace this season. Take their best perimeter defender out of the equation, and a lack of depth to keep up with the Spurs bench as well, and it’s a recipe for disaster for the Grizzlies.
Memphis Grizzlies Preview by SharonShyBrown
Grizzlies’ Series X Factor:
Marc Gasol has to be aggressive on both ends of the floor and play like the player we all know he can be. Marc needs to average at least 20 points and 10 rebounds per game in this series. I know it’s saying a lot imply the Grizzlies best all around player is the X factor, but that’s where we are at this point. Gasol hasn’t been the same aggressive player he was before the All-Star break and he had to deal with a foot injury.
The aggressive Marc Gasol is unstoppable especially if he shoots a lot of threes. If he manages to average 20 and 10, the sky’s the limit for the Grizzlies in this series. Plus Marc will take pride in beating his brother Pau in this series.
Grizzlies’ series MVP:
Zach Randolph as reserve can become a nightmare for Pau Gasol and David Lee. The Spurs have had his number since he was the reason they lost to the Grizzlies in the 2011 playoff series. But this series, Randolph will come off the bench and the Spurs no longer have Splitter, Bonner or Duncan to disrupt him.
The question is will Z-Bo get his mojo back against the Spurs and become the series MVP. If the Grizzlies have any chance to win this series, Randolph has to be the catalyst off the bench.
Memphis Grizzlies Key Advantage Over San Antonio Spurs :
Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are healthy for this series. Each one has the goods to devastate the Spurs which can be a great advantage in the Grizzlies favor, if all three are aggressive together. The key is together.
None of the three have the luxury of taking a night off in this series. They have been together a long time and they need to fight for each other to move on to the second round.
Memphis Grizzlies Key Disadvantage Over San Antonio Spurs :
The absence of their defensive specialist Tony Allen. It was announced that Allen is out indefinitely due to a calf sprain. Who will be in the best position to contain Kawhi Leonard? That’s a tall task in the first place. Will it be Wayne Selden, Jr., James Ennis or Andrew Harrison?
According to Michael Wallace of Grind City Media:
David Fizdale said Tony Allen (calf) will travel with the team to San Antonio and expects him to focus on a leadership role with the young replacements.
Also, how will the Grizzlies guard the three point line and P&R coverage? P&R coverage has plagued them all season.
The back-up pg position is also a problem. Mike Conley probably will have to average 30 minutes a game in order for the Grizzlies to have consistency on offense because Patty Mills will be a problem for Andrew Harrison and Wade Baldwin, IV.
Grizzlies need to feature consistency:
Be consistent on both ends of the floor for 48 minutes. The Grizzlies need to get off to a fast start and contain it. They need to minimize mental mistakes because the Spurs will capitalize and make them pay. Regardless of who is on the floor, the players need to pay attention to detail and fight hard to win games. Take it one game at a time. It’s a 7 game series for a reason.
Series Prediction: Grizzlies over Spurs in 6 games
I like to go against the grain and I don’t follow the crowd — just because. I really think the Grizzlies have the goods to beat the Spurs if certain things happen. If Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph each average 20 plus points in the series, the Grizzlies will win. But, one other player has join the three in scoring each game. Will it be Vince Carter, JaMychal Green or sharp shooter Troy Daniels?
Ultimately the Grizzlies have to try to find a way to contain Kawhi Leonard and guard the three point line better. If they do, the series could result in a dramatically different ending than most assume.
Independent Preview by Cory Hutson
Series X Factor: Marc Gasol
His ability to stretch the floor will test the limits of the Spurs’ league-best defense. His ability to stretch Dewayne Dedmon out of the paint could go a long way, or he could just sink 3-point shots against slower players like Pau Gasol and David Lee.
Series MVP:
Kahwi Leonard. With Tony Allen out of the series with a strained calf, I don’t think the Grizzlies have someone who can reliably check the MVP candidate, and I expect him to be his usual, hyper-efficient self.
Key Factor in series:
Can the Grizzlies muster the long-range shooting to beat the Spurs? No team has a greater differential in 3-point accuracy in their wins and losses than the Grizzlies, and making those long-range shots is doubly important against the best defensive team in the league.
Series Prediction: San Antonio over Memphis in 5 games
San Antonio is more talented, top-to-bottom, and I expect the Grizzlies’ offense to falter. It’ll be hard to beat the Spurs if they can only score 80–90 points some nights.
