Sixteen NBA Draft Profile: Dennis Smith Jr.
Dennis Smith — like Markelle Fultz — was among the few bright spots on a talent-deprived team while at N.C. State. He’s also the second best point guard in this year’s class.
Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball?
That’s the question that has dominated the conversation in regards to the 2017 NBA draft class, one regarded as the most talented group of collegiate players since the LeBron-led firestorm of 2003. Fultz quietly chugged along as one of the nation’s most diversely talented stars on a Washington squad that was severely deprived of adequate depth elsewhere. Ball, on the other hand, led the publicized revitalization of a UCLA squad that emerged as the country’s most explosive offensive unit.
The latter, however, shouldn’t be the second leg of that conversation.
Dennis Smith Jr. found himself in a spot oddly similar to Fultz has this season. As a highly-touted prospect on a poorly-constructed roster, Smith’s N.C. State squad — much akin to Fultz’s Washington team — failed to make the NCAA tournament, despite Smith’s brilliance on the court. Like Fultz, Smith’s coach was also fired at the season’s conclusion.
There are certainly some differences, with Smith’s penchant for playing down to the competition rather than rising well above it providing a stark contrast to Fultz’s year long dominance. Smith was, however, the clear-cut choice for ACC Freshman of the Year while boasting an impressive stat line of 18.1 points and 6.2 assists per game. He did that in the country’s most talent-laden and competitive conference, to boot.
Flashes, though, are what helped build up Smith’s stock. And while flashes aren’t always reliable, Smith showed more than enough to boast an upside as high as any in this upcoming class. He’s a more well-rounded talent than Ball, displaying fewer holes in his game while fitting the mold of the modern NBA in a more conducive manner. He’s the second best point guard in this year’s class, and I’m willing to stand on that hill for the foreseeable future.
Upon watching Smith play, the physical tools are evident via eye test alone. He doesn’t stand out from a stature standpoint, as he barely eclipses 6'3'’ with a wingspan that’s not far beyond it. But he can flat-out fly. Smith’s first step en route to the basket is among the fastest at the collegiate level, while his ability to get off the floor and play above the rim is as exhilarating as it is necessary. He has a strong build for a player of his size and utilizes that unbridled athleticism to finish through contact and around traffic.
Smith already has NBA-ready athletic tools, and that’s imperative in helping him acclimate to the next level of play.
Smith’s scoring drives the remainder of his offensive game, something that shouldn’t be as heavily-bashed as it often is. He’s not the wizard-esque assist man that Lonzo is — nobody is, quite frankly — but that doesn’t equate to a lack of prowess as a facilitator. Smith uses the gravity of his threat as a finisher to get the defense to over commit, allowing him to open up passing lanes that wouldn’t necessarily be present for other, less-overtly gifted athletes.
His ability to get dribble penetration on a whim allows him to expose holes in the defense, kicking it out to open shooters or drilling backdoor cutters off the drive. He’s also effective in the pick-and-roll, where his multi-level scoring threat allows him to attack the defense in numerous ways. He has dropped his fair share of low key (yet, impressive) dimes this season, and that’s a part of his game that has gone overlooked far too often.
There are some concerns with Smith’s turnovers, as his decision-making isn’t quite on the same plain as the aforementioned Fultz and Ball in that regard. He turned the ball over 3.3 times per game to go along with his 6.2 assists, something that — albeit effected by a hefty offensive load — will need to be addressed heading to the next level.
The upside, though, is there and that’s perhaps the most important aspect of any draft prospect. With so little guaranteed in regards to a player’s success in transferring to a new level of play, one’s ceiling is exponentially more important than their floor. There’s certainly some appeal behind a high-I.Q. passer with NBA-level instincts, but that doesn’t assure success beyond the most basic of levels. Smith’s passing game is already on the brink of becoming a consistent weapon of his — and that’s something teams should be starving to cultivate.
In regards to his scoring touch, Smith is firmly in a tier that solely he and Fultz occupy among the class’ best point guards.
Smith’s quick first step and impressive handling allows him to outwork his defender in isolation on a consistent basis. He gets into the teeth of the defense sans resistance at times, where he then wields a vast array of dribble moves, floaters and acrobatic finishes that he can break out on his way to the basket.
Smith operates well at different speeds as well, possessing a shifty set of scoring moves off the bounce. He creates space without a problem when operating both in the mid-range and from beyond the arc, with a quick trigger that allows him to get off his shots in heavily contested fashion. The freshman struggled with consistency on his shot early on, but managed to stabilize his percentages as the campaign wore on. His increased comfort level with collegiate basketball led to increased production as a shooter — and that trend will likely hold true at the next level.
The 19-year-old ended up shooting 35.9% from beyond the arc this season, a tally that is certainly respectable when compared to other top flight prospects located around him. His ability to create his own shot is a near-necessity in a league driven by multi-faceted point guards, and that’s something that Lonzo — despite the myriad of gifts he possesses — can’t do.
Smith’s quickness also aids him in transition, where he’s able to push the break and excel as both a finisher and a distributor. He’s difficult to contain given his explosiveness around the painted area, while his vision helps him find teammates who are streaking alongside him.
The biggest concern with Smith, at this point, is defense. His sub par length is going to hurt him against larger, longer one-guards, while his lack of a consistent motor is bound to be a turnoff for teams that consider him in the same breath as De’Aaron Fox and Frank Ntilikina. He often took possessions off defensively, getting lost in assignments and simply looking unmotivated on that side of the ball.
He showcased plenty of ability in flashes, but like his offensive game, that may not be enough to sway some scouts in the direction I’m currently leaning. His strength allows him to — at the very least — compete physically with NBA caliber athletes, while his ability to get a jump on passes and play the passing lanes led to a notably high steal total this season at 1.9 per contest. It’s there when his energy follows suit — it’s just a matter of the latter occurring on a regular basis at the next level.
Another concern worth noting is Smith’s body language. While his undesirable situation made some irritation understandable, he had a tendency to lose focus and react poorly when his team was down. This, in part, ties back to the earlier point about him playing down to his opposition, rather than soaring above them. When the team floundered, the manner in which he carried himself on the court changed — and that’s a worrisome sign for somebody likely to be placed on a poor team once his name is called this June.
All in all, Smith’s ceiling is simply too high to overlook. He doesn’t have the same scoring problems that Ball is bound to have given his funky shot release and less stellar athleticism. Whereas Smith’s scoring touch at all three levels gives him an edge over a player like Fox. He has all the tools needed to emerge as a legitimate star at the one spot. And, star point guards are the driving force behind some of the NBA’s most successful teams.
NBA TEAM FITS:
1. Sacramento Kings
The Kings’ needs are relatively wide-ranging at this point, as their current roster consists of very few core pieces moving forward. Buddy Hield is likely the most valuable asset in place for the time being, with Willie Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere likely fighting for the team’s starting center spot long term. Bringing in a potentially-elite point guard prospect to help guide their proverbial ship moving forward is a quality investment.
As it stands, the Kings are trending towards the middle stages of the lottery with both of their selections, where Smith — despite his obvious talent — is likely to end up. They’ll have the chance to add two lottery picks to a roster in flux, helping them shape the direction of the team moving forward. Smith’s high-octane offensive repertoire is something Sacramento could embrace more than other, more established rotations and that’s something that could benefit both sides in the long run.
Smith’s ability to get dribble penetration at will opens up the offense for those around him, which could allow him to thrive more so than he did in a N.C. State rotation that was devoid of proper spacing. He’d have a budding sharpshooter to work alongside Hield, while the Kings — both via their second lottery pick and free agency — have the potential to place other quality shooters around him. He’s the type of go-to offensive threat that Sacramento’s roster is in desperate need of in lieu of the DeMarcus Cousins trade, and provides them with a foundation upon which to build the remainder of their rotation.
In a league so heavily reliant on guard play, the idea of building around a pair of young backcourt mates is certainly appealing. We’ve seen plenty of teams excel with solid two-man duos on the outside, with Golden State and Washington being the most obvious examples. Other teams are finding success with rapidly improving backcourts themselves, as the Nuggets — a team very much on the rise — have found a more-than-suitable long term solution to their prior backcourt woes in Gary Harris and Jamal Murray.
This is a Kings squad that — despite the atrocious lack of value in return for Cousins prior to the trade deadline — could find themselves in a genuinely promising spot come next season, assuming all is handled well (which is a rather extravagant assumption given their track record). Smith has the pedigree of a top three selection and is someone who seems likely to slip further than he should come draft night. The Kings should undoubtedly jump on him if he’s available.
2. New York Knicks
The Knicks, in all likelihood, are set to move on from Derrick Rose this offseason, opening a relatively large point guard gap for a team that needs to commit to some form of a rebuild — even if they don’t go into all-out tank mode. Smith, albeit a rookie point guard with room to grow, gives them somebody who provides a much-needed solution to their ongoing troubles at the one spot while providing Phil Jackson and company with a building block to place alongside Kristaps Porzingis in the post-Melo reservoir.
First and foremost, Smith is not a great fit in the triangle, which is my largest concern with almost any prospect being placed into the convoluted mess of New York’s organization come next season. Smith is an off-the-dribble, attack-first point guard who’s going to generate the majority of the team’s offense through the threat he presents off the bounce.
Damian Lillard has been the comparison of choice in several circles, and that could be a fitting conclusion to draw depending on the long-term development of Smith’s outside jumper. They’re both score-first guards who can create for others in the process, and that doesn’t necessarily jibe well with Phil’s triangle-centric aspirations.
Side note: I really wish Phil would stop with this triangle stuff.
Talent-wise, Smith is an obvious choice for a Knicks team that will — eventually — need somebody to help pilot them towards becoming a competitive unit. Porzingis gives Smith a uniquely talented stretch four (or five) option to work with in pick-and-pop scenarios, while his ability to generate his own offense on a consistent basis gives them a serviceable crutch to lean on when Melo Ball is no longer working, something players like Rose and Jose Calderon never provided at the one spot.
This is purely a post-Carmelo investment and, in a sense, a post-Phil investment that Phil would unknowingly be making. New York needs an elite point guard to compete, which is precisely where Smith’s ceiling currently stands.
3. Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers get a point guard, something they’ve been is desperate need of ever since Sam Hinkie pushed the Self Destruct button a few years back. While Ben Simmons figures to handle a sizable amount of the play making load — and isn’t necessarily the most friendly fit alongside Smith’s skill set — the N.C. State product’s talent could be too much to pass up for a team that’s currently trotting out T.J. McConnell as their starting point.
Brett Brown would be forced to manage the odd overlaps between Smith’s ball dominant game and Simmons’ limited scoring prowess, something that could be aided by an improvement in the latter. Unlike Smith, Simmons doesn’t create his own offense at an incredibly high clip, with the half court offense being where he’s most limited. His lack of a reliable jumper was a noticeable void throughout his stint at LSU last season, while his off-ball prowess is — in short — an unproven entity. Smith would likely be forced to adapt as more of a pure scorer, but that’s something that, under the tutelage of Philadelphia’s player development system, seems well within reach.
A Smith-Joel Embiid pick-and-roll would be among the more aesthetically-pleasing combinations in the league, while the general thought of an athletic force of Smith’s caliber alongside Embiid’s post presence is something that should inspire confidence for the foreseeable future. This is a Philadelphia team that has been itching for a real point guard for years now and Smith is one resounding answer to their prayers.
Spacing is another issue that piggybacks off the aforementioned concerns over the Smith-Simmons dynamic, but that’s once again an issue that seems rectifiable in both the short and long term. Embiid is a bonafide threat on the perimeter, while the placement of additional shooters around Smith and Simmons would help keep the floor open. Given Smith’s own competence as a shooter (as well as his likely adjustments alongside Simmons ) we could see the Sixers utilize him as an off-ball threat on the perimeter. Something that, in a limited dosage, should keep the offense running at a high level.
The balance between not marginalizing the talents of Simmons and Smith while retaining Embiid’s status as the offensive mainspring will be tough to maintain. But Brett Brown has done one heck of a job with a fairly underwhelming group of guys, and that sizable talent upgrade should provide the catalyst for nothing short of improvement come next season.
