Sixteen NBA Draft Profile: Josh Jackson
While the point guard conversation has been the focal point of this year’s draft class, Kansas forward Josh Jackson may boast the highest ceiling of all.
Josh Jackson was considered by many to be the consensus number one recruit coming into the season. It was Harry Giles’ multitude of knee injuries that gave way to the highly-anticipated Kansas freshman making the top of many rankings. And, while Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball have overtaken him towards the top of most draft boards, Jackson’s slight decline in that sense — if a decline at all — is a product of an insanely talented draft class more so than anything else.
The word that best characterizes Jackson’s game is versatility. He combines elite athletic tools with highly advanced court vision and an improved scoring output. These skills allow him to impact the game in a number of ways when on the floor. He couples that with an elite defensive prowess as well, making him the best two-way prospect in a class brimming with offensive firepower towards the top.
This season has been highlighted by consistency for the former McDonald’s All-American, as he needed markedly less time to adjust to the speed and feel of the collegiate game than some of his counterparts on the wing. We witnessed Jayson Tatum go through a significant adjustment period throughout the meat of the regular season with Duke, while Jonathan Isaac’s awkward situation in Florida State’s spatially-challenged offense limited his ability to produce at the highest of levels. Jackson, in a rotation highlighted by upperclassmen, didn’t need that.
He was their second-best player alongside Frank Mason III from day one and showcased flashes of talents that, on occasion, ascended him to a level far higher than the majority of his competition on the court. Jackson’s stint with Kansas has done nothing but assure him of a top 5 selection this coming June, with the top overall spot remaining far more plausible for him than any other non-point guard in this year’s class.
What makes Jackson so dangerous is the sheer quickness with which he can attack this defense. His explosiveness off the bounce isn’t something that most 6-foot-8 swingmen can match, allowing him to simply outpace and overwhelm his opposition in different scenarios on offense.
He’s an innately gifted playmaker, with a high basketball IQ that’s reminiscent of most point guards. Jackson does an excellent job of pushing the break in transition, where his vision allows him to find streaking teammates through the tightest of passing windows, while his precision makes him dangerous from virtually any angle. He’s ambidextrous in that respect, dropping equally-as-impressive dimes with his left hand as he does with his right. He simply puts the defense on their heels and backs up the type of athleticism that makes him a threat to finish in his own right.
Jackson translates that passing touch to the half-court setup as well, as his thoroughly-adept feel for the game allows him to make impressive reads in a myriad of situations. He’s an excellent drive-and-kick threat, and he also shows promise in the pick-and-roll. He doesn’t need much room to find teammates around the court and is among the best in college basketball at using the gravity of his dribble penetration to create passing lanes elsewhere.
Here, his quickness en route to the basket draws the help defender, allowing him to make the nice wrap-around dish to the open big.
Jackson’s passing touch is also coupled with a much-improved scoring arsenal, something that will likely be a determinant for just how high his ceiling reaches at the next level. His ability to run an offense is an incredible asset for teams that have bought into the versatility-driven style that now spearheads most NBA offenses, but his scoring punch — should it reach remotely high levels — could transform him into a surefire All-Star for the foreseeable future.
As it stands, the main hitch in Jackson’s offensive production is the hitch in his shot. He has struggled with bouts of inconsistency throughout the younger stages of his career, and it continues to be drawn on as the main point of critique in an otherwise-stellar all-around game.
When watching him shoot, the slight deviations in his release from time to time is the most concerning trend. His form, in general, looks fluid, as he gets excellent elevation both off the catch and off the dribble, while his release doesn’t take all that long to get off. It’s simply a matter of stabilizing how the ball comes off his hands and becoming more comfortable as a shooter, while transitioning to the next level.
There is some considerable room for optimism, though, as his percentages this season have been far higher than they’re often portrayed to be. He’s hitting at a 38.6 percent clip from beyond the college 3-point line, a percentage that’s actually higher than the aforementioned Tatum and Isaac, while his 2-point jumpers are also falling 38.7 percent of the time. He moves well off the ball and possesses a great feel for the game that allows him to find his spots with relative success. It’s just a matter of hitting shots, and that’s a rapidly improving facet of his game.
Jackson’s quality passing, immensely high basketball IQ and potential-laden scoring is enough to garner top-pick consideration in most drafts. This may ultimately launch him into the periphery of that conversation in this draft, despite the presence of Fultz and Ball towards the top. He personifies modern positional flexibility and should be able to sustain his stock on the merits of offensive proficiency alone.
But that’s not the case, and that’s part of what makes Jackson different than some of his hyper-athletic predecessors in years past. He’s an elite defensive prospect and likely the best in this class on the perimeter — with Indiana’s O.G. Anunoby providing his only real competition in that respect. While wings with defensive upside come in plentiful fashion in the upper echelon of most draft classes — Wiggins, Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown — few of them are ever as capable as Jackson is at this stage in their career. Granted that Jackson is older than most freshman at 20 years old, his two-way capabilities certainly give his prospects some extra luster.
Part of what makes Jackson so good defensively is his athleticism, as his strength and quickness allow him to switch between positions and play the passing lanes with ease, something that should translate to the next level. Intelligence has been something stressed throughout this piece in regards to Jackson’s offensive game, but it applies just as much defensively. He has all the physical tools needed to be an elite defensive product and understands precisely how to exercise those when needed.
Energy, however, is what makes Jackson a different animal of sorts. As Mike Schmitz of DraftExpress stated, part of what causes Jackson to stand out is his “combination of explosiveness, toughness, [and] competitive fire,” as he brings the type of hard-nosed energy that can help anchor a team on both ends. While fundamentals are of the utmost importance — and Jackson has those down — effort is what makes the league’s most successful defenders such painstaking irritants, and Jackson has always shown that edge.
As of right now, J.J. holds the edge over Tatum as this draft class’ best wing. That’s an advantage he should maintain until draft night, with personal issues providing a more pressing concern than skill-set at this point.
NBA TEAM FITS:
1. Los Angeles Lakers
While Lonzo Ball to L.A. is a match made in basketball heaven, Jackson to L.A. may still be a basketball-centric vacation to the Caribbean. Luke Walton’s system is built to push the pace, as is the young core that the Lakers have put in place. Jackson’s two-way skill-set could be the all-encompassing piece needed to mold the team into a more watchable entity moving forward.
Such a transition starts primarily on the defensive end, as the Lakers’ immense struggles signal a relatively clear need for a more imposing presence on that side of the ball. Jackson’s hustle is something their current unit is lacking, and his ability to take on the opposition’s best player while providing a consistent boost in energy on both sides of the basketball could help bring the production up for a team that appears outright lackadaisical at times.
This is a Lakers team that — long term — is built to go small during certain stretches of the game, and Jackson gives them the defensive backing to do so. Ingram’s lanky frame is going to translate to high-level defense down the road, and implementing the versatility of Ingram-Jackson at the forward spots gives L.A. something to build around.
Offensively, the fit is almost as seamless. Jackson’s ability to push the break and help lead the offense gives Walton another playmaker alongside D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson in the backcourt, giving them the ability to take on defenders from a variety of angles. Russell has shown plenty of promise as a scorer in general, meaning Jackson’s playmaking could afford him some more consistent looks as an off-ball scorer.
In turn, Jackson’s slashing prowess could be maximized in a spaced out unit of the Lakers’ ilk, as they’d be able to run the court and (ideally) put capable shooters at all five spots around Jackson moving forward. A Russell-Jackson, or even a Jackson-Ingram, pick-and-roll is a fun idea to toy with in regards to smaller lineups, while their increase in ball movement could help the team’s offensive efficiency in the near future.
Los Angeles’ current group is a jumbled mess of young talent, and Jackson could help piece it together into a functioning two-way threat.
2. Phoenix Suns
The Suns are set at virtually every position except small forward at this point, with their talented backcourt duo of Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker, accompanied by a pair of frontcourt players with sizable upside down the road in Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender — both of whom were top 6 prospects last season.
In a similar manner to the Lakers, Jackson’s skill-set could be that binding presence that helps tie some of Phoenix’s best offensive weapons together into a more cohesive unit. They’re also built to run the floor, with Chriss showing some major strides of late on the offensive end, while both Booker and Bledsoe are tailor-made for a transition-style attack.
The biggest concern here would be how well Bledsoe — assuming he’s their long-term point guard solution, which isn’t entirely set in stone — and Jackson can coexist offensively, as both of them find the majority of their offensive production off the dribble. Jackson’s jumper is still a few years out from being a reliable weapon, while Bledsoe’s outside shooting comes in spurts more so than consistent production. The latter has shot just 33.5 percent from deep this season and could provide a difficult overlap to adjust to in regards to optimizing both him and Jackson on the offensive end.
Regardless, though, the fit with Jackson and the remainder of the rotation seems more important. Bledsoe is already 27, and even if they do plan on keeping him around for a few more seasons, the younger legs of their core still hold more weight in determining the direction of their team. Devin Booker is 20 and just threw together 70 points in a single game. Putting a perimeter scorer with his talent alongside Jackson is a pairing that could benefit the Suns for the foreseeable future.
Chriss, on the other hand, is somebody I will continue to stand for — and somebody whose game works extremely well alongside Jackson’s. He’s an obvious pick-and-roll fit and has the semblances of a 3-point shot that could provide a viable exterior threat in upcoming seasons (33.2 percent). Having a dynamic big of that nature who also runs the floor as well as Chriss does is a valuable asset in this scenario. The Washington product has needed time to work out the fundamentals of his game, especially on defense, but possesses all the tools needed to be a far more valuable piece than some might foresee.
Throw that in with Bender’s floor spacing and Tyler Ulis’ incredibly intelligent approach to the game, and all the pieces are in place for this Suns team to develop into genuinely strong team with Jackson in the mix. They’re another team who has struggled, at times, on the defensive end, especially after P.J. Tucker’s departure at the deadline. Jackson fills a lot of holes for most teams, and Phoenix could be a massive beneficiary of his game.
3. Sacramento Kings
The Kangz are in a bit of a rough spot with Philadelphia’s pick swapping rights looming overhead, but Jackson’s fit, should they luck out with a top 3 or 4 pick, would be evident from day one.
Like the Suns with Booker, the Kings give Jackson an up-and-coming perimeter scorer to work with in Buddy Hield. While Hield is by no means in the same vein of talent as Booker at this point, he has shown some considerable upside thus far in Sacramento. He has the ball handling and interior touch needed to work off the pick-and-roll and get to the rim, while his off-ball movement generates a good amount of space for the offense around him.
Jackson’s best bet at the next level will be with an offense who can throw some shooters around him. The Kings will have a second lottery pick this year to help do that, while the remainder of their rotation resembles a blank slate more so than anything else as it currently stands. They have plenty of room to mold their future moves around who they pair with Hield in this year’s draft, and Jackson’s all-encompassing skill-set is a nice starting point.
The Kings would also add some solid defensive pedigree to a rotation that already has potential in that realm. While Hield isn’t necessarily a good defender, their interior rotation yields a handful of high-upside rim protectors in Willie Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere moving forward. Malachi Richardson is also a solid defensive prospect, as his 7-foot- wingspan, and height at 6-foot-6, should allow him to defend multiple positions at a high level on the exterior.
This is a team in the midst of a transitional period, and one whose future prospects will be largely determined by the success of their haul in this year’s draft. While Jackson may be a long shot by means of probability, he’s the type of player who, if available, is virtually impossible to pass up on.
