The Clippers Have A Blake Griffin Dilemma
Blake Griffin’s future in LA is something of a question. It’s time to stick or twist for the Clippers with their star forward.
A broken left kneecap. Right elbow staph infection. Torn left quadricep. Broken right hand. Re-aggravated left quadricep. Minor right knee surgery. That’ll take a toll on a man. With Blake Griffin just recently turning 28 and his free agency lingering, how sure should we be that his future lies in Los Angeles? Better yet, how sure are the Clippers that it’s the best move for them?
It seems like a non starter of a question though. Of course Blake Griffin will want to stay in Los Angeles and vice versa. They have a talented squad, with one of the solid cores in the NBA featuring DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul and J.J. Redick. Griffin’s entertainment career is starting to make moves, and staying in Los Angeles guarantees him not only more opportunities in that sphere but more money from his current team in the process with a starting max salary of $30.9 million next season if he re-signs.
The Power Forward is averaging 21.3 points, 8.3 rebounds. 5.0 assists and 48 percent from the field, which is a career low. His basic numbers are not exactly bad — Giannis Antetokounmpo, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and LeBron James are the only other players averaging that or better in the entire NBA. Beyond that though, there are concerns worth worrying about for Griffin.
How much do those aforementioned injuries take a toll on a player like Griffin, who has a game built on ferocious physicality and power that is showing signs of wear and tear.
Thursday Night’s defeat in Dallas was a very good illustration of the struggles that Griffin has been having. Prone to bullying opponents in the post, he struggles on smaller opponents he would normally power past. Harrison Barnes is surprisingly strong and a good post defender, but he shouldn’t get the best of Griffin.
The screenshot of Griffin on the ground tells the story, and he just doesn’t look to have the same explosion that has been the hallmark of his game. He’s lost ball turnovers have also gotten out of control this season, and perhaps it is part of his struggles in the post that is part of the problem.
Here’s an example of where a defender can snake in on Griffin trying to gain an advantage on an opponent, and smack the ball away sending (in this instance) the Mavericks away in transition whilst the forward looks bewilderingly frustrated under the basket. Dirk Nowitzki is an NBA legend, but in his later years Griffin should be going to work against him.
It can also come from when Griffin tries to carve out a mid-range shot for himself. Barnes causes Griffin so much attention that Yogi Ferrell is able to come in without detection and steal the ball away.
The former Oklahoma product running downhill at opponents is normally a terrifying sight, but Nerlens Noel doesn’t appear frightened at all as he eats up this attempt by the forward.
He might have finished with 21 points, but it took him 9-of-23 from the field to get there. Griffin also had only 5 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 steal alongside 4 turnovers. This last attempt to score on Barnes in the post sums up his night, and perhaps the current state of affairs for him.
Griffin’s March has echoed this game in a big way. 18.0 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.6 assists on 44.9 percent from the field and 30.2 percent from the perimeter alongside 73.3 percent from the line is perfectly fine for most players, but not of the calibre of a Blake Griffin.
The thing is, on paper it doesn’t make a lot of sense to move on from Griffin if you’re the Clippers or from the Clippers if you’re Griffin. They have a great starting five in terms of numbers, and their best rotations are brilliant. Three man groups include several devastating combinations:
The common theme here? It’s the same players and a lack of competent wings and depth, while their weakest lineups are playing 300 minutes or more indicate the same issues.
Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers, Raymond Felton, Wesley Johnson and more make up their worst 3 man combinations. Luc Mbah a Moute is not listed as he plays mainly minutes with the starters, and he has been a great stopper on the defensive end, but his limitations illustrate the Clippers greatest and most pressing issue — wing depth.
Golden State have Kevin Durant (who haunted them for so long in Oklahoma City), Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and more. The San Antonio Spurs have Kawhi Leonard and any other player they deem worthy of being “Popoviched”. The Houston Rockets have James Harden, Trevor Ariza and their merry band of three point shooting wings. In a league where multi-positional wings are at a premium, the Clippers stand in line with the rest of the league with their cup empty and their hands out.
The Clippers have been capped out for as long as anyone can remember in recent times, being tied to this core has meant being so. Steve Ballmer has no issue spending, and this summer is a huge point of intrigue. J.J. Redick could walk as well as Griffin, and Chris Paul is due the Designated Player Extension too. It is a no brainer for them to fork out north of $200 million on said contract this summer. Paul without doubt is the team’s best player and their most important, he has gotten better with age and is the engine of this franchise.
DeAndre Jordan has another year on his deal before he can opt out in the summer of 2018 for a huge extension, and the question might be decided this summer as to whether the Clippers should hitch their wagon to Griffin or Jordan because it’s increasingly obvious they can’t take the next leap with the group they have.
The problem for Griffin is whilst he is a good playmaker and an increasingly improving mid range shooter, he hasn’t been able to stretch that out to the three point line. For the Clippers, that can be a problem.
Griffin is shooting 33 percent on nearly 2 attempts from the perimeter this season, and has time to add that to his game. Whether he can though, is another question entirely.
That may mean shedding one of their star big men, and while Ballmer is a happy spender it remains to be seen whether one of the most public and determined owners in the league will want to drop huge amounts of cash on a team that is good, but not good enough.
There’s never an ideal time to trade Blake Griffin, and that opportunity (or at least the best one) passed when the Clippers briefly had talks with the Celtics that never seriously progressed.
Why not strip the offense down to something more simple, with the devastating Paul-Jordan pick-and-roll surrounded by nothing but shooters? Defensive lynch-pin Jordan, and one of the league’s few elite playmakers and floor generals in Paul certainly have the makings of a contender, depending on what Doc Rivers the General Manager could surround them with. Being competitive is great in the NBA, but competing seriously for a title is better and the Clippers surely must be sick of knocking on the door but never seriously having a chance at getting inside.
A fresh start for Griffin might also maximize his game in another system where he is built around, rather than constantly minimizing next to Paul. Consider his February where the Point Guard missed all but two games; 26.2 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.2 assists for the entire month. His scoring and playmaking was fully unleashed, showing that despite signs of regression in elements of his game there is still life there.
There’s also the worry though that those signs could lead to something greater, whether Griffin stays or not. Players like Amar’e Stoudemire, Shawn Kemp, Chris Webber, Antoine Walker, Elton Brand and the likes were all worn down by the constant injuries Griffin has suffered, and all experienced sudden declines either at 28 or not long after. It would not be a huge surprise to see him go down that road.
So how wise is it to give him a max contract at full length this summer if you’re the Clippers? They could be signing up on a core that’s already proven not to work and is has seen it’s best pass them by. Someone will offer Griffin max money, there is no disputing that.
There is no clear answer, but the Clippers would want to be asking themselves those questions. Otherwise his potential decline could become theirs.
All statistics were via Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise stated. All video utilized via 3ball.io.
