The Elfrid Payton Question: Do The Magic Have Their Point Guard?
While it may have seemed obvious that the Magic were still in search of their franchise point guard, Elfrid Payton’s recent play has complicated the issue.
On March 6th, Elfrid Payton recorded his first triple-double of the season, tallying 16 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists in a loss to the New York Knicks. The game was a microcosm of the latest incarnation of the Orlando Magic, a game when the starters outplayed their Knickerbocker counterparts, but the bench was absolutely crushed.
On March 8th, Payton recorded his second triple-double in as many games, dropping 22 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists against the Chicago Bulls. He led all three statistical categories of anybody who played that game. It was arguably the best game of his career, and in many ways he single-handedly willed the Magic to win.
On March 13th, Payton recorded his third triple-double of the season. Unlike the win versus Chicago, there was little to feel good about this time, when despite Payton’s 13 point, 10 rebound and 13 assist line the Magic lost to a Sacramento Kings team on an 8-game losing streak, sitting Ty Lawson, Aaron Afflalo, Tyreke Evans, and Kosta Koufos.
These three triple doubles, and the games they came in, embody what may be one of the Magic’s most important dilemmas moving forward. Payton’s recent play suggests he’s a starting-caliber guard, but the team results haven’t necessarily been there. His March run of all-around play has highlighted what makes him special as an NBA player, but it also showcases his limits. For example, Payton didn’t hit a single 3-pointer in any of those three games. In fact, he’s hit just 1 shot from long-range in 14 post-break games, only attempting 6.
What does it say about Payton as a player that the best month of his career has come when he’s all but abandoned what’s quickly become the focal point of elite offenses, the 3-point arc? What does it mean when the best version of him was unlocked by the Magic’s dedication to a “small-ball” style of play, when he can’t contribute to small-ball spacing?
While much has been made of Aaron Gordon’s shift back to a more natural power forward type of role, Payton has arguably benefited more than anyone. He’s arguably the only reason the Magic are having any success right now: Payton has the only positive net rating of anyone on the team in the 14 games since the All-Star break (+3.4, with Gordon barely missing the cut at a -0.1).
When I asked him about his reduced 3-point frequency (he averaged over 2 attempts per game before the break), Payton didn’t seem concerned. “Just takin’ what the defense is giving me. It’s kinda how I play.”
There’s probably an element of truth to that. Payton’s higher 3-pointer attempt rate before the Magic switched to this style, back when they had Serge Ibaka, might have been a consequence of not being able to get into the paint with the same frequency he does now. If he’s not able to drive, settling for a 3-pointer might have been his only option.
Now, Payton’s able to do what he’s actually good at: getting into the paint, and creating from there. He’s not perfect at it, and sometimes he’ll find himself trapped on the baseline without a plan, but it’s by far his best NBA skill:
This kind of play is pretty typical for him these days, a semi-transition foray into the paint before the defense is totally set. All four teammates are spaced out, even Vucevic. Granted, the Heat’s Tyler Johnson made a mistake here (leaving Gordon in the corner is infinitely preferable to allowing Payton an easy layup), but this kind of quick decision-making forced the defense to make decisions, and they made them incorrectly.
He’s not just creating points for himself, either:
This is where the small-ball unit really shines. Ibaka was arguably the Magic’s best 3-point shooter (and losing him is part of the reason the team’s been so bad from long range, even worse the last month than their normal low standards), but Ibaka is never making that cut. Payton draws in all the attention, and he’s a good passer in or near the paint, so he’s well-suited to finding cutters like Gordon.
The question is, does this work long-term? Teams who bother scheming against the Magic universally come upon the same, easy solution: pack the paint, and dare them to shoot. It’s part of the reason the matchup with Charlotte has been so bad this season, because the Hornets allow teams to shoot more 3-pointers than anyone while blocking off the rim, and the Magic depend on penetrating to the basket more than perhaps any other team.
Of course, it’s also fair to wonder if this is the “real” Elfrid Payton. We’re dealing with a really small sample size, and history suggests Payton’s not the second-coming of Rajon Rondo. He doesn’t have nearly the vision Rondo did, for starters, and Rondo was a better defender.
Even if Payton did transform into Rondo, it’s unclear whether that player can exist in the modern NBA, and unlikely that he could lead this team. Rondo worked the way he did because he played with three Hall of Famers, as the ultimate setup guy for his superstar teammates. Payton can’t elevate the likes of Terrence Ross or Nikola Vucevic the same way.
Payton will ultimately not be the answer this team is looking for, not unless he miraculously discovers his long-range touch. With a draft stacked with interesting point guards, the Magic will have the option of starting to move on come June.
