The Evolution of Efficiency
The NBA has always been a league effected by trends. But, statistics prove the ever increasing usage of the three point shot is a trend that is here to stay.
Through the years of NBA basketball, the game has gone through many changes. Early on, all field goals were valued equally. The closer a player was to the basket, the better the chance they had to score. The dominance of centers in this era can be attributed to the importance of inside scoring. This was a fairly accepted idea through the late 1970s.
Until basketball would be changed forever.
In the 1979–80 season, the three-point line was added. With the addition of this foreign element to the game, many teams did not attempt many three-point shots. In the inaugural season, the league average for a team’s three point shot attempts was just 2.8 per game, shooting with an efficiency rate of a mere 28.0 percent.
Over time, players added this new shot to their games, driving up attempts and shooting percentages. In the ongoing 2016–17 NBA season, the league average has climbed to 26.9 3PA per game. And, the league’s 3P% now stands at 35.9%.
In the current NBA, efficiency has been completely re-defined. How? The short answer would be Stephen Curry.
Stephen Curry was instrumental in revolutionizing the three-point shot. Along with quite possibly being the best shooter the NBA has ever seen, Curry carries a persona that many normal people can relate to. When a player has the combination of a never before-seen skill and an image that appeals to the masses, special things happen.
Since Curry entered his prime, we have witnessed volume three-point shooters become a trend around the NBA. Many believe the game is better when big men are the stars — the Shaqs, Hakeems, and Wilts of the world. The current NBA is trending away from this. If the current top five players in the league were listed, would there be any big men? Some would argue Anthony Davis belongs on this list. But, he also happens to be more of the modern, athletic big man, who can hit the mid-range jumper. Suffice to say, the league is dominated by guards and perimeter superstars.
Former NBA superstar Charles Barkley, infamously remarked the Warriors would never win a title as a jump shooting team. Even after Golden State took home the franchise’s fourth championship in 2015, Barkley (along with many other fans) continued to deny the success of jump shooting teams.
The aesthetics of the game are only half of the revolution. In recent years as analytics developed, stat people have been screaming the “3s > 2s” argument. No matter how much someone hates the look of the modern game, there is no denying facts.
In the NBA, the goal on offense has always been to score as many points as possible each possession. It would make sense to take shots that result in the most points per possession on average, correct? Simple math shows this season’s league average of 50.1% on two-point field goals creates 1.00 point per shot (PPS).
To achieve this same PPS on three-point field goals, a team needs to average 33.4 percent. Of the 30 teams in the NBA 27 are producing above that mark this year. The league average on three-point field goals is 35.9%, which equates to 1.08 PPS. This clearly shows, across the league, three-pointers are more efficient than two-pointers.
This point is given further credibility when you examine each individual team’s PPS splits for this season:
The league has reached a place where taking more three-pointers is more valuable than two-pointers. Even in a guard/wing dominated league, big men are modernizing. It is rare to have a successful big man who does not have a mid-range or three-point shot in their arsenal.
Efficiency has not always been like this. The way we should think about an efficient shot has changed. Up until the early 1990s, it was statistically correct to think the closer to the hoop a player is, the more efficient the shot. Every year since 1992–93, the three-point shot has created more points per shot than two-pointers.
There has been a consistent occurrence over the past 24 years. Every single year, three-pointers have created more PPS than two-pointers. While efficiency on two-point attempts has stayed fairly constant, the growth of the three-point shot is obvious.
For decades the three-point shot has been revolutionizing efficiency in basketball. It has come so far that it now blows away two-pointers in terms of PPS.
No matter how much you may hate the look of the modern NBA game, there is no denying the clout of the three-pointer, and it is only going to become more powerful.
