The Pistons Must Re-Sign Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Following a disappointing season, the Pistons will enter the summer of 2017 with little to no cap space, no clear direction, and a big free agency decision to be made on their best young player: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Because the Pistons weren’t able to sign Caldwell-Pope to an extension before October 31, 2016, KCP enters this offseason as a restricted free agent. While there’s little doubt that the Pistons would have been better off signing him to a cheaper deal before the Oct. 31 deadline, KCP’s restricted free agent status now gives the Pistons flexibility to determine exactly how he fits into the team’s long-term plans.
Caldwell-Pope’s recent strong play has made the Pistons’ decision somewhat easier; KCP’ reputation (and his ability to crack the starting lineup) was built on his defense. Chasing shooters over screens and off the three point line proved invaluable to the Pistons’ 12th-ranked defense in 2015–16.
After his backcourt counterpart Reggie Jackson went down with a knee injury, it wouldn’t have surprised anyone if Caldwell-Pope had taken a step back offensively this season: KCP had, until then, relied heavily on his guards to get him open looks.
Prior to his January shoulder injury, KCP was shooting over 40 percent on 5.5 three-point attempts per game, and providing much-needed spacing for one of the league’s worst three point shooting teams.
He was doing all of that while creating for himself more than ever. Just 77.9 percent of Caldwell-Pope’s three pointers in 2016–17 have been assisted, 6 full points lower than the season before.
Many of those unassisted three pointers have come in uber-valuable transition opportunities. The Pistons’ transition offense is below average at 1.08 points per possession, but that number jumps to 1.13 when the shooter is KCP. His ability to create and knock down threes in transition has done wonders for the team’s spacing in transition, not only for himself but for the rest of his team.
Caldwell-Pope has been equally valuable to the Pistons half-court offense, not only because of his shooting, but also his improved playmaking authority. While KCP was in the past a middling catch-and-shoot threat in the half court, he’s now learned how to come off screens and not only knock down shots, but create offense for himself and others when defenses over-commit when he threatens to shoot.
KCP’s exploitation of opposing defenses over-committing has been critical to a Pistons offense that has often struggled to find consistent half-court offense.
Caldwell-Pope has shown the ability to take opponents off the dribble in those situations and get to the paint, but too often he resorts to long mid-rangers, one of the most inefficient shots in basketball. While not ideal, it’s a necessary evil for any Pistons offense that includes KCP.
The reality for poorly-spaced teams like the Pistons is that they can’t always just call up and cash their preferred shots. Players operate in less space and have fewer options. Instead, they often simply take what the defense offers. For Caldwell-Pope, that means long twos.
The good news — both for the Pistons and for KCP’s development — is that he’s hitting those shots at a career-high 40 percent clip.
For the Pistons’ front office, the questions of whether Caldwell-Pope can translate the improved shot making on long twos and threes into more efficient offense weighs heavily. KCP is still fairly inefficient, and he’s likely to command a max or near-max deal in the summer of 2017.
Caldwell-Pope should have an easier time getting to the rim if he continues to prove himself as an outside shooting threat. Teams will continue to close out ever-harder on him when he gets the ball along the perimeter, and driving lanes will in turn get wider.
As the 2016–17 season progressed and the Pistons’ playoff became bleaker, there emerged a more concerted effort to run the offense through the screen-running Caldwell-Pope. While Pistons Coach Stan Van Gundy may have waited too long given Caldwell-Pope’s improvements this year, the team still has a handful of games to test exactly how much KCP can handle offensively.
The concerted effort to run the offense through Caldwell-Pope was never more evident than in the Pistons win on Thursday against the Brooklyn Nets. Facing a second-half deficit, the Pistons ran the offense through KCP more than anyone else on the team. The results were mixed, but provided plenty of reason for optimism.
Twice against the Nets, Caldwell-Pope got too far into Brook Lopez, resulting in a block and a miss. However, in both cases, KCP scrapping off hard screens set by Jon Leuer and Andre Drummond resulted in tons of open space. When KCP missed, the attention he drew created an offensive rebounding opportunity for Leuer. The execution wasn’t perfect on either play, but the space created by KCP’s screen-running was space the Pistons have sorely missed all season.
In the third quarter, the threat of KCP coming off the Leuer/Drummond double screen caused the entire Nets defense to collapse, and led to a wide open three-point shot for Ish Smith. KCP read the defense perfectly and made the right play, and those (correct) snap-call decisions will happen more and more as he gets reps in these kinds of sets.
A few possessions later, KCP entered open space via a high Drummond screen. This time, he pulled up short of Lopez and drained a mid-range shot while being fouled from behind. That type of quick stop and shot is very difficult to defend for the trail man without fouling, and it could be a go-to move for Caldwell-Pope out of the pick-and-roll in the future.
Finding one or more of those go-to moves will be critical for Caldwell-Pope’s offensive development. Given both the improvements he’s made this year and his age (he just turned 24), there are plenty of reasons to hold hope. KCP’s defense has remained strong, albeit not quite as good, even as he’s being asked to do more offensively. Most importantly, he’s shown that he can manage a heavy offensive load and still defend the opponent’s best player in clutch time, like he did when he out-dueled Kemba Walker and the Charlotte Hornets earlier this month.
Knowing exactly what the Pistons ought to expect from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope solves half the problem of what to do with him this offseason. The other half comes by evaluating the implications of signing him, for the team’s short- and long-term future.
The Pistons’ biggest issue is that it, if the team re-signs Caldwell-Pope and nothing else changes, owner Tom Gores will be paying the luxury tax for at least a few seasons. Gores has expressed a willingness to do just that; but with the Pistons’ late-season struggles, it wouldn’t be surprising if the front office’s sentiment changes.
If the Pistons are committed to paying KCP this summer and they don’t want to pay the tax, they’ll likely have to move one of Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond, or Tobias Harris. Harris is probably safe with his strong play this year. Drummond and Jackson were both disappointing this year and could be candidates to be moved, but both of their contracts might make that task more difficult.
Regardless of who does and does not get moved, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has emerged as the Piston with the best chance of becoming great. Because of that, the Pistons have little choice but to re-sign him this summer. If they don’t want to pay the luxury tax, they’ll need to find a way to move one or more of their large contracts.
Failing to re-sign Caldwell-Pope is not a viable option.
