The Portland Trail Blazers Will Make The Playoffs
Despite early struggles, the Blazers are clicking on all cylinders down the stretch.
The Portland Trail Blazers have had a disappointing 2016–17 season.
After injuries to the Clippers allowed Portland to unexpectedly make the second round last year, Blazers President of Basketball Operations Neil Olshey mostly kept the band together, matching a $75M contract for Allen Crabbe, giving about $40M apiece to Moe Harkless and Meyers Leonard, and forking over $70M to Evan Turner in the hopes that their team, anchored by Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, would show progress.
Although their 32–37 record has Portland falling far short of their preseason goals, fans should fear not: the Blazers will make the 2016/17 playoffs.
Looking at recent trends offers three compelling reasons why:
1) The Arrival of Jusuf Nurkić
It’s tough to overestimate just how good Nurkić has been and how much he’s helped the Blazers since mid-February.
By the time the Denver Nuggets shipped him out (along with a 2017 first round pick) to the Blazers for center Mason Plumlee and a future 2nd, the relationship between Nurkić and Denver had soured. Once a tantalizing prospect, his third season came with intermittent fits of pouting, giving up, and falling out of shape as his role was diminished with the emergence of new-NBA center wunderkind Nikola Jokic. Averaging 8.0 points, 5.8 boards, 1.3 assists, and less than a block in 18 minutes per game, Nurkić’s season had stalled.
His arrival to the Blazers has revived his season, and possibly his career. In 14 games with Portland (13 starts), Nurkić is averaging nearly 30 minutes a game, 14.4 points, 9.5 boards, 3.5 dimes, and 2.1 blocks.
But his impact is felt far beyond counting stats; a decent finisher with good hands, Nurkić also sets one nasty screen, making him a legit pick-and-roll threat that pulls the defense toward the basket and makes life oh-so-much easier for his teammates. Because of that, Nurkić can take some credit for…
2) Damian Lillard’s Stellar Post-All-Star Play
Damian Lillard was already having a decent season. Snubbed from the All-Star game for the 2nd year in a row, Lillard’s 25.7 points per contest before the break would have been a career high.
As of late — and in no small part due to the newly-found floor space created by his buddy Nurkić — Lillard has been on a tear. Over his last five games, Dame’s averaged 36 points on 53% shooting (54% from deep), including a 49-point supernova on the second night of a back-to-back in Miami, capping the Blazers’ first 4–1 road trip since 2009.
Most notably: Lillard isn’t waiting until the 4th quarter to get going. In a three game stint Lillard produced a 15-point first quarter in Miami, a 13-point first quarter in Atlanta, and a 16-point first half in San Antonio (all wins).
Whether he can keep it up remains to be seen, but with Dame’s comments that the team has to “get greedy” to make the playoffs, he’s setting the table for sustained dominance. Also helping his (and the team’s) cause…
3) The Blazers’ Remaining Schedule is Extremely Favorable
As of Tuesday March 21, the Blazers are just a half game behind Denver for the West’s 8th seed; Dallas is 2.5 games behind, New Orleans is 4 games back, and Minnesota is 4.5 games back.
The Blazers’ remaining opponents have an average win percentage of 43.8%, whereas Denver, Dallas, New Orleans, and Minnesota all have opponent averages of 52% or higher.
Further, the Blazers play 10 of their last 13 games at home, a luxury that Denver (4 home games), Dallas (6), New Orleans (5), and Minnesota (5) don’t have.
While a relatively soft schedule doesn’t guarantee more wins, it makes them more likely. This due to the combination of the Nurkić, a version of Lillard who refuses to lose and a Blazers squad who’ve won 8 of their past 10 games.
Suffice to say this situation will make pro-lottery lusters howl in frustration as surely as it gives playoff-pushers a reason to sing.
