The Raptors Have a Fan Problem
How about we just let Masai Ujiri cook?
Sports fandom can be taxing in the variety of ways. It can be financial, in a way that buying a LeBron Miami jersey right before buying a Steph Curry Golden State Jersey right before buying a LeBron Cleveland Jersey before buying a Kevin Durant Golden State jersey can be taxing. It can be emotional, in a way that watching your team draft consecutive white guys who play the same shooting guard position before watching your team draft 3 players that play the same position as your best player in DeMarcus Cousins can be taxing. It could just be a New York thing, in a way that going from “he is the greatest of the generation and we will building him a statue” to “we will bury him so deep he can shake hands with Satan himself” can be taxing. And even in that, the Toronto Raptors managed to identify, pioneer and establish residence in their own little pocket of taxing fandom.
Leading up the 2017 NBA Draft, a rumor surfaced that the Raptors were perhaps open to packaging Jonas Valnciunas with their 23rd overall pick in a trade. Quickly both Raptors Twitter and Raptors reddit went on the offensive, leaping to the defense of the 25 year old center about how he can still be a factor and how we can still develop him… Eventually the conversation touched on everyone such as DeMare Carroll (why can’t we trade him) and DeMar DeRozan (someone argued that DeMar holds top 30 value in NBA executive eyes… he does not).
Historically, Raptors fans tend to over or under value (with more of a tendency to over) what kind of talent pool our team is working with. The default metronome seems to be the Dwane Casey system, and sure, that plays a role. Casey is a defensive coach who runs his offense on a very steady injection of isolations and “give DeMar the ball plays.” In the first game of the 2017 NBA playoffs, it took the Raptors close to 7 minutes into the game to run their first set. Seven. Minutes. Offensive coach Dwane Casey is not, but we cannot hang every player not hitting their perceived potential on the coach.
Remember Terrence Ross? Remember how feverishly religious part of the fanbase was on Terrence Ross because once upon a time he hung 51 points on the Clippers? I made filet mignon once, but I’m pretty sure I’m not on my way to becoming a Michelin chef any time soon. Terrence Ross was a three and D guy with an inconsistent three and defense that fluctuated between “pretty good when locked in” and “can be replicated just as well by a cardboard cut-out version of Terrence Ross.” Yet, a fraction of the fanbase maintained for five years there was more to come.
We’re at the same point with Jonas. Here are some net positives: good scorer in the post. Here are some of the net negatives: liability on defense, lacks basic on court awareness, terrible passer out of the post, requires high usage to be effective. Best case scenario, I just described Greg Monroe. Worst case scenario… This is pretty much it. We know what we got in Jonas. Yet, fans maintain there is more to come. So, let’s examine that.
The system the Raps run with two high usage guards (34.3% for DeMar and 24.9 for Lowry) who require the ball in their hands to create. This requires Jonas to operate off-ball, during which he frequently looks to possess the level of basketball awareness best described as “aware he is playing basketball.” The Raps physically have to break flow of the offense to deliver him the ball which also effectively ends ball movement (he averages 0.7 assists for his career), and we already have two dudes capable of doing that. While there is some question whether or not Jonas fits in the modern NBA, he definitely is an ill fit to the Raptors. A much better answer is Ibaka as a small-ball five or a stretch four. Yet, we are here defending Jonas and acting indignant over suggestions of trade.
Now, let’s get to DeRozan while we’re at it. In the heat of the argument, I argued DeMar has peaked, someone else argued he hasn’t and that his value is at a high with other front offices? But, what is that value? He’s on a mammoth contract signed at the dawn of the new CBA bubble, he’s on the cusp of 29, which is the age in which athletic guards generally decline. He’s below average from three, relies on free throws and is an average passer if that. Credit where credit is due, there is something gracious about how he’s able to hang in the air after leaving the ground before deciding to do with the ball and passes it last minute. It’s like watching an almost car crash in slow motion somehow vindicated by the fact a collision is avoided in the end. DeMar is our almost car crash.
Oh, and he hasn’t been our best player in any of the last two years’ playoff series to boot. His value, his skillset, and his overall performance history is at an all-time low. So why are we high on him?
On the flipside, we’re also wondering why we can’t trade DeMarre Carroll who gladly took our money, which seems excessive even under the new cap and proceeded to nosedive his stock off the cliff Evil Knievel style. This year we approached almost crusade-like “trade DC” commitment because of his inability to produce anywhere on the court and yet here we are pondering why oh why he doesn’t hold any value on the block.
As tough as it may be, it may be the time for the fanbase to admit that the current iteration of the Raptors has peaked and peaked hard. It peaked last year, but the procurement of Serge Ibaka for a penny on the dollar (further solidifying the notion that Masai may or may not be a real life shaman) and getting P.J. Tucker put us on life support for a little longer.
Part of being a fan is standing by your team, but part of it is also having a realistic approach to valuing what you’re rooting for. The problem is, when what you’re rooting for is trash, Toronto fans have a tendency to not show up (I had at least five people offer me their Blue Jays season tickets after a slump start this year). I’m not trying to diss the entire fanbase of the city I live in, but we have to take a good, hard look at the Raptors and identify us as a team in decline that had an unfortunate tendency to peak at the same time as the human version of Greek mythological hero was rampaging through the conference.
But hey, at least Bruno is a year away now.
