The Time Is Right For The Philadelphia 76ers
The payoff of The Process is in sight.
Shortly before this year’s NBA Draft, the Philadelphia 76ers mortgaged a future 1st-round pick for the right to move up in the draft, during which they selected University of Washington standout guard Markelle Fultz with the first overall pick. This past Saturday, they signed veterans JJ Redick and Amir Johnson, who are noticeably more experienced than most of the players on their roster.
Given that the 76ers haven’t attempted to be relevant in any given year’s basketball games for several years now, these moves are striking in the message they convey: For the first time since perhaps 2012, the 76ers want to compete in the present, and they’re going to be a handful for the rest of the league in the years to come (if eye emojis from Fultz and Robert Covington are any indication). They could’ve used this season as another rebuilding/developmental one, netting another high draft pick while Fultz and last year’s #1 overall pick Ben Simmons play through rookie mistakes, but Philly is hungry and instead choosing to get after it.
It’s a testament to how well the 76ers have rebuilt from the ill-fated Andrew Bynum trade in 2012 that a player like Redick wants to join the organization (for comparison, the Orlando Magic started rebuilding at the same time and at least one of their high draft picks has been said to be less useful, in a basketball sense, than a horse; note: horses don’t play basketball and don’t even do many basketball-adjacent things).
Redick has played in the postseason after each of his eleven years in the NBA so far and, at 33 years old, probably isn’t looking to break that streak now, so his decision speaks volumes. He was also willing to sign just a one-year deal with the 76ers, forgoing the financial security that older players usually covet just to get a chance with the organization. Redick likely sees what we all see in Philly’s influx of blue-chip players, and ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports that Redick is also excited about the opportunity to play for head coach Brett Brown.
As for the organizational fit, things should be just fine: Redick (43 percent from deep last year) will provide a much-needed outside threat for a team that finished last season 25th in three-point percentage and mentor the young players in their development (e.g., Nik Stauskas, who plays like Redick in some ways and has also struggled early in his career). The 76ers’ other recent signing, Amir Johnson, should fit right in too, allowing the 76ers defense to tread water when Joel Embiid and Richaun Holmes need breathers.
However, if Redick or Johnson don’t work out as expected in Philly, the team doesn’t need to fret. Not only are the 76ers going as far as their young stars take them (Embiid, Fultz, Simmons, perhaps Dario Saric), they can just opt to not re-sign Redick and Johnson after their one-year deals expire in 2018, freeing up that money for future transactions. As loaded with talent as the 76ers are, almost as important is how they still possess Sam-Hinkie-level financial flexibility and future assets. You can take the 76ers out of The Process, but you can’t take The Process out of the 76ers.
What makes the coming years so appetizing for the 76ers is that not only are they loaded with burgeoning talent, they’ve stumbled into some decent timing. Sure, the Golden State Warriors rule the NBA right now and LeBron James still plays in the Eastern Conference, but the seeming inevitability of yet another Warriors-Cavaliers Finals has caused more teams than usual to consider tanking out of the playoff picture, per Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders.
The recent westward exodus of top-tier talent in the East should facilitate a rapid ascent for the 76ers. Paul George has been traded to Oklahoma City, leaving the Indiana Pacers in a likely rebuilding scenario. Jimmy Butler is reuniting with former coach Tom Thibodeau in Minnesota after the Timberwolves fleeced the Chicago Bulls for his services. And thanks to Paul Millsap signing with the Denver Nuggets, the Atlanta Hawks’ best player is now maybe Dennis Schroder, the Will-Smith-Standing-In-An-Empty-Room.JPEG of the Hawks (Schroder is fine, but he probably shouldn’t be the best player on a playoff team; also, Rest in Peace, 2015 60-win Atlanta Hawks). That’s three playoff teams from last year likely tumbling out.
By statistical measures too, the East is going to be low on individual talent next season (again) in a sport where individual talent takes on outsized importance. Sixteen of the league’s top twenty players will play in the West next year, if you believe in either last year’s Win Shares per 48 Minutes or Value Over Replacement Player ratings as accurate measures of individual ability. If All-NBA is your thing: 10 of the 15 selected players for the 2016–2017 All-NBA teams will play in the West next season, which is a lot, but somehow counts as a down year for the West (starting with the 2012–2013 season, at least 11 All-NBA players have been from the West every year until last year). It’s not inconceivable that by the end of next season, Embiid has developed into the best player on the floor for any Philly playoff series not against the Cavaliers.
Point is, Philly is going to have an opportunity to win a lot of games and garner valuable playoff experience this season. After signing Redick, the 76ers have an 80% chance (!) to make the postseason in 2018, per SportsLine. It already wasn’t that much of a stretch to say that the 76ers could’ve been playoff-caliber last season, given that they sported playoff-level point differentials when Embiid was on the floor. Now they’re adding two #1 overall picks and some solid veteran help. That seems good.
Of course, they’re not better the Warriors right now (or the Cavs), but not everything has to be about the Warriors right now. Plus, the developmental timelines of the 76ers’ stars are aligned such that by the time they reach their primes in a few years, the Warriors might be starting to fade either due to age or unsustainable luxury tax bills.
As with any upstart team, there are some disclaimers about getting too excited: We have yet to see Simmons or Fultz play a single regular-season minute, and incorporating “get over the hump” veterans (like Redick) into an established core can sometimes prove to be more difficult than expected. There are also the standard disclaimers that go with any team such as health (Embiid’s knees and feet, in particular) and chemistry (e.g., what happens when the spotlight isn’t large enough for each of the team’s stars?).
However, whether the 76ers perform well immediately or need some time to find their stride, there is excitement in Philadelphia for the first time in a while. Fans have bought a franchise-record 14,000 season tickets for the coming season and the team expects to sell out all home games. The years of suffering have not only yielded a plethora of world-class talent, but also cultivated a latent hunger in one of the country’s best basketball towns.
The time feels right for the 76ers to be making “win-now” moves, and the best part is that they’ll still have endless routes for improvement in the future regardless of what happens this season. Most teams don’t get to eat metaphorical cakes and still possess said cakes in a palatable form, but that’s what Philly has pulled off.
Get ready to eat, Philly.
