Three Tantalizing Unrestricted Free Agents the Wolves Have Their Eyes On
Late Friday night — or early Saturday morning, July 1st — signals the beginning of NBA Free Agency.
Historically, the Wolves have been slow to jump into the free agent pool, if they jump at all. Under the direction of Flip Saunders, in 2014 and 2015, the Wolves signed one total free agent. That signing of Mo Williams did not happen until July 30th of 2014. Last offseason, with Tom Thibodeau at the reigns, the Wolves were again slow to pull the trigger in free agency. It wasn’t until July 9th that the Wolves signed Brandon Rush. July 12th for Cole Aldrich and July 14th for Jordan Hill. This July is likely to move to a different and quicker tune.
With Jimmy Butler in town, the game has changed. Previously, it may not have been Saunders or Thibodeau who were slow to jump into the free agent waters but rather the free agents themselves who were fearful of the frigid waters in Minnesota. But with Butler alongside Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota is a new kind of home.
Now, no one would be surprised to see any of the bigger name free agents take at least a meeting in Minnesota. Turn on your Woj-bomb notifications, the news of NBA will start rolling in as soon as early as Friday night, and this summer that news is likely to include Thibodeau and the Wolves. These are three free agents who would be apace with the evolving core of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Paul Millsap, Power Forward, 32.3 years-old
Millsap is the dream, even if that dream is a short-sighted in nature. His fit and demeanor check many boxes that have been previously void in Minnesota. While the signing would inspire immediate euphoria, it is an imperfect option. The former power forward of the Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks has 11-years of NBA experience and through that would be very expensive. With the new salary cap set at $99 million, the maximum contract he could garnish would be for four years and $148 million (starting at $34.65 million annually).
After Nikola Pekovic’s medical retirement deleted the final year of his contract, the waiving of Jordan Hill’s non-guaranteed contract, and if the front office is to renounce Shabazz Muhammad’s cap hold (increasingly likely), the Wolves can clear way to $18.7 million in cap space. Clearing an additional $16 million in cap space is difficult but possible. Ricky Rubio ($14.25 million), Gorgui Dieng ($14.11 million), Cole Aldrich ($7.30 million), and Nemanja Bjelica ($3.95 million) are on fair contracts that could be absorbed by another team with cap space. Moving two of those deals puts the Wolves in the conversation. Best case, the two are Aldrich and Bjelica, clearing $11.25 million combined. That would work if Millsap is willing to sign for less than the max.
But again, Millsap is an imperfect solution as he is 32-years-old. If signed to a four-year deal, years three and four would likely be a negative net value. Amidst the negatives, the fit of Millsap is the best the free agency market has to offer this season. The Wolves need a true power forward more than any other position. While Ricky Rubio brings his druthers at the point guard position, he is a real point guard. The Wolves current power forward (Dieng) is a square-shaped peg as a center being hammered into the circular hole of power forward. Millsap would slide in perfectly at the 4 amidst Rubio, Wiggins, Butler, and Towns.
Kyle Lowry, Point Guard, 31.3 years-old
If the Wolves were to make a power play for Kyle Lowry, that would almost assuredly signal the end of Ricky Rubio’s six-season tenure in Minnesota. Not only because Rubio and Lowry are both starting-caliber point guards, but because Lowry would present the same financial squeeze Millsap does. With 12-years of NBA experience, Lowry also stands to earn (up to) a four-year, $148 million contract.
Rubio’s departure and Lowry’s entrance would render a starting lineup of Lowry, Wiggins, Butler, Dieng, and Towns. This is another phenomenal option but falls slightly behind the Millsap option in holistic value. While, in a vacuum, Lowry is a better player — and one year younger — than Millsap the difference between Rubio and Dieng is a larger gap.
Rubio is one year Dieng’s junior and, again, actually plays point guard whereas Dieng is forced to play the de facto power forward role in Minnesota. Rubio is also less of a financial commitment than Dieng, allowing for some potential financial flexibility. Rubio has two years and $29.2 million left on his deal, Dieng’s four-year, $64 million contract extension kicks in this year.
Lowry, like Millsap, would be a dream scenario but holds the similar drawback of age — especially noteworthy with small point guards — and financial commitment. Neither scenario is scoff-worthy, but Lowry would be slightly less enticing path due to the rest of the Wolves roster construction.
J.J. Redick, Shooting Guard, 33.0 years-old
Redick is a drop-down to the role-player demarcation on this list. Millsap and Lowry are All-Stars, Redick has never been and never will be that caliber himself. But given the Wolves current roster with two total wings in Butler and Wiggins, Redick fits a gaping need. If Redick were to sign with the Wolves, he would not only fit a need but provide shooting that has become paramount in lieu of LaVine’s departure.
Last season, the Wolves shot 21 threes per game, which ranked last in the league. LaVine averaged 6.6 of those threes himself. Again, replacing that shooting is paramount. Butler alone does not fill that void. In fact, his three-point shooting has been low-volume and volatile in nature.
Jimmy Butler’s Three-Point Shooting
2013–14: 3.6 three point attempts per game, 28.3 percent
2014–15: 3.0 attempts, 37.8 percent
2015–16: 3.1 attempts, 31.1 percent
2016–17: 3.3 attempts, 36.7 percent
Redick’s addition would immediately stabilize the shooting from distance. The 42.9 percent from distance Redick shot in Los Angeles last season marked his worst over the past three seasons. That’s absurd efficiency. In 2015–16 he shot 47.5 percent from three on 5.6 attempts per game. For comparison, Andrew Wiggins is a career 47.1 percent shooter on two-point field goals. Yes, that includes dunks.
Another possible benefit is the price point of Redick. If he could be acquired for under the $18.7 million in current cap space, then there would not need to be corresponding moves. A nine-man rotation could feature a starting lineup of; Rubio, Wiggins, Butler, Dieng, Towns and a bench of; Redick, Bjelica, Tyus Jones, Aldrich.
Dependent on Redick’s exact price a salary cap exception — Mid-Level, Room, or Bi-Annual — could be used to bring on a player of Arron Afflalo’s caliber similar to the signings of Zaza Pachulia and David West in Golden State last season. Redick is not the high-level addition Millsap or Lowry would be but would provide a better opportunity to fill out the rest of the bench. And, again, shooting=paramount.
The Wolves are (finally) in a position to entice free agents. To be in a situation that former All-Stars would actually choose Minnesota seems like a fairy tale, but with Tom Thibodeau and Jimmy Butler, the narrative has changed.
