Toronto Raptors Face Summer Of Pivotal Decisions
After a season of big moves, the Raptors brain trust face numerous offseason decisions which will affect the franchise’s immediate future.
Over the past 4 seasons the Toronto Raptors entered unheralded territory. It became known as the ‘Magical Era of the Franchise”. During this period records fell and copious firsts occurred as the Dino’s entered the East’s upper echelon.
Punctuating just how much the Raptors exploded, they seemingly overtook the Maple Leafs in popularity. Let that resonate for a moment; Basketball and the NBA had pushed the NHL in a hockey dominant country to the back burner. Everything the Raptors touched was given new life including the fan based components. To wit, a tradition which began with the Leafs involved how MLSE handled the National Anthem at playoff games.
The performer would sing the opening line of Oh Canada and then extend the microphone outward. The Air Canada attendees would exuberantly take over singing the anthem in unison. Having been present at the ACC for such an event, I can attest to it’s goose bump worthiness. It cast a spell over the ACC with even opposing players affected by the magnificence of the moment.
No doubt, LeBron James was one of those affected, because last season the Cavaliers decided to emulate the anthem unison method. NBA scribe, Lang Whitaker cited Cleveland’s creativity for delivering the American anthem in a fresh new way. I recall thinking at the time the simple parallels which existed for the lone team north of the border whose fans consistently dealt with an inferiority complex for the better part of two decades. Cleveland had copied our anthem magic and worse was getting credit for inventing it.
Flash forward to games 3 and 4 versus Cleveland this year and the pregame preparations featured the anthem delivered in its entirety by the performer. Perhaps it’s an odd moment of correlation, but just like the absence of 20,000 Raptors fans creating the pregame atmosphere, it seemed the magical era of the Raptors had been snuffed out.
As much as the rabid Canadian fanbase was aware of the “We The North” squad, on a whole, the team wasn’t as well known or popular south of the border. Raptor players (primarily American) however are well aware of their uniqueness as they represent an entire country, not a single city. But, like most small market teams (although technically Toronto is the third largest NBA market in terms of population) the squad isn’t necessarily a big draw for national television audiences. Nor are they an ideal sell for the Association, given TV advertising sponsors target markets also reside in America.
Yet, all those factors seemingly added to Toronto’s ‘us against the world’ attitude. Over the 4-years of the current regime, the gritty squad displayed a never quit attitude. No opponent could get out to a commanding lead on the Raptors and assume Toronto would raise the white flag. This season that point was made all the more obvious as the Raptors overcame double digit deficits for comeback wins a league leading 21 times.
That trade mark resiliency abandoned the Raptors this postseason as they were swept by the Cavaliers. A bitter pill to swallow, given Toronto’s offseason was entirely fueled by visions of closing the gap which took them within two wins of reaching the finals in 2015–16.
As the Raptors brain trust prepares for an offseason full of complex decisions the closing press conference left questions hanging in the air. Specifically, Masai Ujiri’s statement of the need for a ‘culture reset’ created a stir. Was this a simple knee jerk response to a disappointing playoff run or was Ujiri hinting at significant roster or coaching changes. To that end, let’s reflect back on the Raptors 2016–17 season and what pivotal decisions the Raptors face this summer.
The Season’s Hot Start On Offense:
After a summer spent playing for their National team DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry returned to camp as Olympic gold medalists. DeRozan also returned with gold lining his pockets after re-signing with Toronto; doing so on the first day of free agency without entertaining any opponent offers. He rewarded the Raptors by scoring 30-points or more in ten of his first 12 games.
DeRozan continued his offensive outburst registering career bests in points (27.3), rebounds (5.3) and steals (1.1) per game. This accomplishment was given additional weight given his All-Star backcourt partner Kyle Lowry missed 21 games due to wrist surgery.
For his part, Lowry registered an even more impressive stat line with career bests in scoring (22.4 points), rebounds (4.8) and 3-point makes (3.2) per game. Yet, what made Lowry’s achievement stand out was his shooting efficiency where he posted career bests in effective field goal percent (56.9 percent), 2-point field goal percentage (51.8 percent), and 3-point field goal percentage (41.2.percent). Considering Lowry’s on/off court effect it is easy to comprehend why retaining the point guard is the top narrative in the 6ix this offseason.
The Warriors, Rockets and Cavaliers will be remembered as the offensive juggernauts of the season, but it was the Raptors who led the Association until mid January with their incredible offense. In retrospect, fans are left to wonder what the squad would have accomplished with the additions of Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker if Lowry hadn’t been out injured.
Raptors Rediscover Trademark Defense:
When Dwane Casey was inked as the Raptors head coach he arrived fresh off serving as the defensive coach for the Champion Dallas Mavericks who defeated LeBron James’ Miami Heat. Immediately, the focus in Raptor-land shifted to a mandate to turn around Toronto’s defense. Though the squad vacillated back and forth over Casey’s six seasons at the helm, arguably the post All-Star break iteration of the squad produced the best overall defense of his tenure.
Schedule and Injuries:
Initially Toronto was tagged as having one of the easier schedules. In hindsight this may have been fool’s gold given the squad played more road games and Western foes earlier than any of their Eastern counterparts. By the time they hit the break their schedule shifted to mostly inner Conference teams who were pushing for playoff seeds and playing their best ball of the season. To wit, the Raptors didn’t face the Pacers for the first of three games until March 19. In addition, Toronto also played the Wizards twice and streaking Miami Heat three times post break.
Injuries played a role in the Raptors season with core members missing significant time:
- Lowry: 22 games
- Patrick Patterson: 17 games (never seemed to fully recover from his knee injury)
- DeMarre Carroll: 10 games
- DeMar DeRozan: 8 games
- Jared Sullinger: Missed the first 41 games of the season, and while he may not have been a core contributor, his presence may have helped the Raptors garner a few extra victories to capture the top seed in the East.
Playoff Disappointment:
It’s often said capturing those 16 elusive wins on route to a title is as much about luck as it is talent and matchups. For the Raptors this statement may be truer than most. Would the Cavaliers have swept their first round series versus a Bucks squad who were playing their best basketball of the season? Had Lowry been healthy to finish the season, how much more cohesive would the reformulated squad have been?
Given the sweep to the Cavaliers, the overarching question is whether the Raptors should have made the moves to add Tucker and Ibaka. The answer to that is a resounding yes. Masai Ujiri had no reason to believe Lowry would end up injured or the Cavaliers would finish tied with the Raptors with 51 wins at season end. There were no hints the proverbial Cavaliers’ switch would eradicate an abysmal Cavaliers defense. Nor reason to believe LeBron James, with a career playoff average of 32.8 percent from deep would shapeshift into a marksmen connecting on 46.8 percent this postseason.
Critical Offseason Decisions:
Moving forward, Masai Ujiri, Jeff Weltman and the Raptors brain trust have an offseason chock full of critical decisions. Topping the list — what happens with the four key free agents, is Dwane Casey still the head coach and what direction the Raptors should take next season. The first two of these decisions will answer the latter and affect the longer term direction of the franchise.
Again, the “culture reset” utterance by Ujiri looms as a potential hint something has to give moving forward. Certainly, the ever eloquent and patient Ujiri may simply be toying with the pundits. That said, giving up three draft picks (first round pick obtained via the Vasquez trade for Ibaka, and two second round picks for Tucker) won’t be easy pills to swallow if the end result leaves the Raptors with nothing to show for it.
Time For New Voice:
Ask any Raptors beat writer and they’ll tell you Dwane Casey is one of the hardest working coaches. A classy, even keeled man who is well respected by his team.
But, there are undeniable failings. Through four consecutive postseason appearances and 7 series Casey has arguably been out coached in all, but perhaps Game 7 of the Indiana series. Casey’s inability to make adjustments, whether between games or reacting mid game is by far his greatest failing. Another key weakness is his penchant for being inflexible. Personally, I found Casey’s “we don’t need to worry about offense” standard refrain cringe worthy. His offensive schemes remained basic, predictable,and without versatility heading into postseason play. With the talent, depth and versatility the Raptors had available, the fact this issue was never addressed was short sighted and unacceptable.
Equally appalling is Casey’s reliance and insistence on using veterans. The elephant in the room is the regression of DeMarre Carroll. Targeted in free agency Carroll never measured up to the player Ujiri and the Raptors hoped would offer a defensive solution to LeBron James. Punctuating his decline the forward produced his worst numbers in points (8.9), rebounds (3.8) steals (1.1), three point percent (34.1) and minutes played (26.1) of the past 4 seasons, For the player expected to be a 3 and D specialist. he is by far the worst move made during Ujiri’s tenure.
In season, many screamed for Casey to start Norman Powell in Carroll’s place, especially during the mid January losing streak when the Raptors lost 11 of 15 games. If Casey was more flexible Powell and Tucker would have started the series versus the Bucks and Cavs respectively. Whether these moves would have produced a different result will never be known, but Casey’s unwillingness to be proactive will forever haunt the club.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly is the ongoing on-again, off-again relationship between Lowry and Casey. Though they downplay their strained relationship outwardly, rumors surfaced in the last contract negotiations that Lowry’s team were pushing for a change. Ultimately, what happens with Lowry during these negotiations could be the tipping point which results in Casey’s dismissal.
Lowry Time:
Last summer rumors assured DeRozan was headed out of Toronto. This year the same rumors are surfacing regarding Lowry, but there may be some smoke to this fire. That said, there are a few overriding factors which indicate Lowry will lean toward the Raptors:
- Priority is the Ring: Lowry has stated his primary goal is to compete for a championship now. This factor alone removes 80 percent of the Association. The Warriors and Cavaliers either don’t need (Curry/Irving) or can’t afford his potential contract.And, let’s face it Lowry isn’t about to take a massive pay cut on the last big contract he’s likely to sign in his career
- Home Sweet Home: Some point to Philly (his hometown) as a logical landing spot. The counter argument for this is Lowry’s early career (Memphis- Conley, Houston- Dragic) was spent battling over starting and being the main ball handler. Why would he take a chance now to go to Philly with Ben Simmons and potentially Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball looking to be primary and secondary ball handlers. He may well finish his career as a 76er, but logic dictates it won’t happen this summer.
- My Main Man: If you’ve witnessed a Lowry interview, you’ll know he relishes his role as the main guy. As much as winning a ring tops his list, his demeanor simply won’t allow him to do it by following someone else quietly.
- Friendship Rules: Team chemistry is an intangible quality every squad strives for, but true friendships are rare. Notably, this past summer in Rio, Kevin Durant told Lowry and DeRozan he was envious of their obvious bond. Though DeRozan won’t interfere in the process Lowry won’t discount the rarity of their connection on and off the court.
From the franchise side the question is whether they want to invest what could be over $200 million and five years to a 31-year old point guard. Again, there are extenuating circumstances which don’t make this a black and white decision. I’ll direct you to the 2.5 games in the Cavaliers series without Lowry on the court. Despite the talent deep roster, the obvious missing component was Lowry and the edge he brings. While DeRozan and Lowry share the leadership role, make no mistake it is the bulldog Lowry who dictates the Raptors demeanor on the court.
While Lowry has suffered some untimely injuries, he hasn’t played the copious seasons of his counterparts in his age bracket. Furthermore the Raptors could offer the 5-year term no team can counter with, but they don’t have to reach the $200 million threshold. An offer similar to Mike Conley’s 5-year $153 million deal might be the more logical move.
Finally, Ujiri has shown a propensity to sign players initially and trade them afterward, similar to the deal he made with Nene Hilario in Denver. This would afford Ujiri and the Raptors more flexibility to continue challenging a top the east or shift gears and trade Lowry, but get something substantial in return.
Trio of Free Agents:
Patrick Patterson, Serge Ibaka and P.J.Tucker are the other free agents the Raptors will need to make decisions on. It seems likely Patterson will be lost along with his (for the most part) unrecognized qualities and high I.Q.
Louis Zatzman of Raptors Republic offers the best argument on Patterson
Opponents shot a full 6.9% worse when defended by Patterson — good for 1st in the league among players who played in more than 60 games! This is worth re-iterating: Patterson lowered his opponents’ ability to make shots more effectively than Draymond Green, Kawhi Leonard, or Rudy Gobert. Patterson doesn’t record many blocks or steals, so while the box score may not feel him, his opponents certainly do.
It also seems unlikely (though possible) Ibaka and Tucker will both return. From my perspective Ujiri should do everything possible to retain Tucker who quickly became the defensive leader on court and solid veteran voice off it. I’ll point you to game 4 versus the Cavaliers when Tucker produced a double-double of 14 points and 12 rebounds while guarding LeBron James. Considering the 7' Valanciunas output of 8 points and 5 rebounds drives home how valuable Tucker is to this roster. Given Tucker is beloved by the fanbase and was drafted by the organization, it seems like a natural symmetry for the grizzled veteran to complete his career in the 6ix.
Ibaka offers the biggest question mark, especially considering how long the franchise has struggled to fill this position. However, spending above $20 million or offering too many years doesn’t seem like the best usage of the Raptors funds.
Ultimately, what happens with Lowry will likely lead to how the remainder of the dominoes fall.
Youthful Contingent:
Although the Raptors were considered to be a veteran squad this iteration of the Raptors began the season as the third youngest in the Association. After adding Tucker and Ibaka they shift upward (barely), as the fifth youngest squad.
Regardless of what free agency moves are made the team needs to utilize the youthful assets. After two successful postseasons Norman Powell has definitely earned a consistent 20+ minutes a night role. Delon Wright needs to be given more opportunity and I’d lean toward finding buyers for Valanciunas to utilize Jakob Poeltl who is already better defensively with a higher I.Q.
Other youthful assets exist in D-League Championship MVP Pascal Siakam, Lowry clone Fred VanVleet and the now one year away from Fran Fraschilla determined timeline Bruno Caboclo. The latter grew under Jerry Stackhouse’s tutelage improving defensively this past season and notably produced a 31 point, 11 rebounds, 4 blocks and 5 of 7 three pointers in the championship game.
Ultimately, everything revolves around Lowry. Everything is moot until his situation is resolved. If I had to guess, the team north of the border will do everything possible to retain their bulldog, send Casey off with gratitude, re-sign Tucker and dispatch their youngsters with thick binders full of summer homework.
And, if everything falls just perfect, perhaps a return to the 20,000 faithful re-creating the atmosphere which highlighted the start of the magical era of the franchise.
