Toronto Raptors/Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Analysis
16 Wins A Ring Writers offer 3 different perspectives on Game 3 results: Bucks 104 - Raptors 77
Toronto Raptors Analysis by
What Worked:
It’s tough to pull many positives from such a thoroughly embarrassing loss. That said, the use of a trio of Raptors youngsters late provided arguably one of the few positives in the shellacking.
Delon Wright (long a favorite of this scribe) spearheaded a mini comeback attempt in the final frame. Playing alongside Kyle Lowry and reserves Patrick Patterson, Norman Powell and Jakob Poeltl this unit offered energy, ball movement and got defensive stops. Although it was too little, too late it did force Jason Kidd to bring Antetokounmpo back to the court.
Otherwise, the only positives to be gleamed from this oust were Lowry (who is still finding his rhythm with new teammates) got some run, granted without the success the Raptors are seeking.
Lessons Learned:
Without question the Raptors inability to control pace and lack of ball movement cost them the game. Case in point, Kyle Lowry was the only starter to produce any assists (2) versus the Bucks starting unit who had 24 assists!
The Raptors seemingly enjoy to play best with their backs against the wall. Notably this squad led the NBA with 21 double digit comeback wins. Additionally, Toronto’s first game playoff losses are also well documented. Certainly if the Raptors like to flirt with disaster — they got their wish, because it’s fair to say Saturday is a must win game.
While the Raptors are familiar with the rabid “We The North” fan base it’s perplexing the players were so easily thrown by the Bradley Center Bucks fans. The delightful little nuances (yeah even Raptors fans have to appreciate the creativity) the Bucks provided will no doubt have the ACC creative team looking to counter in Game 5.
As for the game, it was clear the Bucks made the better adjustments following Game 2 and the Raptors looked unprepared, and worse failed to make any in game adjustments until it was too late.
Realistically this night had nothing to do with Giannis Antetokounmpo beating the Raptors. Rather, it was Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon, Greg Monroe and the Bucks ‘others’ who collaborated to do the damage.
Toronto was unable to stop paint penetration, close passing lanes, provide any semblance of defense and by far was severely short of grit and toughness.
Game 4 Adjustment:
In some ways it’s probably a good thing Game 4 tips off early Saturday since the Raptors will want to get right back out on the court. While the game is won on the hardwood, Dwane Casey and his coaching staff have some sleepless nights ahead.
Specifically, Casey and Co. need to figure out strategic plans to stop Milwaukee penetration, reinstate the transition defense showcased in Game 2, all with a view to switching quickly enough to keep Bucks perimeter scorers in check.
While the Raptors have (for the most part) done a decent job of keeping Antetokounmpo in check the issues now lie with addressing Middleton, Brogdon, Moore and the Bucks bench production.
Witnessing 5 Bucks collapse in the paint and DeRozan tripled teamed spoke to Kidds game plan of shutting down the All-Star backcourt and forcing anyone else to beat them.
Toronto will no doubt utilize multiple screens in Game 4, but there are three distinct areas offensively which need major upticks. Specifically the Raptors need to control pace, increase ball movement/player motion and demonstrate offensive toughness.
Pace is key, since it doesn’t allow Milwaukee to get set in the half court or set up inside the paint as easily. Managing the shot clock is also crucial as lack of ball movement or player motion is allowing the Bucks to easily prepare defensively.
As for individuals, DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas have been huge disappointments. Carroll was brought to Toronto as the prototypical ‘3 & D’ player, but his inability to hit wide open shots and poor defense has fans in the 6ix screaming for P.J. Tucker to replace him in the starting lineup. Valanciunas size and experience was considered a significant pre-series advantage, but he is routinely being out played by rookie Thon Maker and Greg Monroe. JV looks soft in the paint and shooting 30% is completely unacceptable.
Certainly Delon Wright’s performance (and length) should dictate consideration for more playing time and Casey needs to have a quick hook on Carroll and Valanciunas with Powell and Poeltl at his disposal.
Game 4 Prediction:
Many pundits (this one included) earmarked the Raptors as the only viable team capable of stopping the Cavaliers from a third straight
Finals appearance. My, how the tides have turned.
Saturday presents a must win for the Raptors as falling behind 3-1 in this series is tantamount to throwing in the towel. Sure, the Cavaliers famously came back in last year’s finals, but that result was the exception, not the rule.
Toronto have yet to play to their potential or come close to what this deep, talented roster is capable of. Lowry, Patterson, Ibaka and Tucker are all free agents, so each has a vested interest in a deep playoff run. For this reason, expect them to showcase Saturday why this Raptors squad deserved those pre-series accolades. Win and it’s a best of 3 series with home court advantage — lose and wait for the dominoes to fall. I’d bank on the former — then again I thought this series would be over in 5 games!
Milwaukee Bucks Analysis by
What Worked:
On the court, the defense was the story of the game for the Milwaukee Bucks. They packed the paint and forced the Raptors to shoot from the outside. Milwaukee always ensured that they walled off the paint and forced the ball handlers into that wall. All series long Milwaukee has been determined to make someone besides Lowry and DeRozan beat them and they continued this trend in Game 3.
Milwaukee also did an excellent job of not settling for 3-pointers. Even though Milwaukee was hot from downtown, they continuously used their dribble to get into the mid-range area to knock down easier shots. Milwaukee’s refusal to settle for long three’s helped them on this night as they were able to knock them down.
Off the court the crowd was a huge factor for the Bucks. The crowd was in the game from the jump and provided extra energy to the players. They were obnoxious at all times which led to multiple Raptors nearly losing their tempers. The obnoxious environment started before the tip-off when the Bucks played the Barney theme song during the Toronto introductions.
Lessons Learned:
The Bucks dominated from start to finish.
One aspect that worries me is the Bucks continuing to rely on jump shots. I know I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth after stating they did a good job shooting mid-rangers but I’m not sure it’s sustainable.
Even though Milwaukee dominated the points in the paint, Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn’t been nearly as aggressive in attacking during Game 2 and 3. He continues to settle for jump shots which he has only been semi-effective in knocking down.
The Bucks have also struggled to keep the Raptors off the free-throw line. It hasn’t exactly hurt the Bucks yet but if they continue to rack up the fouls they will find the wrong players in foul trouble.
I consider this a somewhat fluky game for the Bucks because they played out of their mind. I’m not expecting this to happen again for the rest of the series.
Game 4 Adjustments:
The Raptors went small to start the second half, substituting Cory Joseph for Jonas Valanciunas. This was a weird substitution to me because Valanciunas had been giving Thon Maker fits. The Bucks are also better equipped to defend guards rather than seven-footers.
Given that adjustment by the Raptors, I’m not sure the Bucks have to do anything to counter. Nearly everything has gone right for the Bucks in this series so there is no need to make changes for change-sake. After all, the Bucks are a couple of friendly bounces away from being up 3–0 in this series.
One adjustment the Bucks made in Game 3, that they should stick with, is only using two centers. In Game’s 1 and 2 Kidd elected to insert Spencer Hawes in for the last five minutes or so of the second quarter. Tonight he re-inserted Thon Maker, who has rightfully deserved those minutes.
The Bucks have to continue to key in on DeRozan and Lowry and make other Raptors beat them.
Game 4 Prediction:
Milwaukee appears to have broken the Raptors but that can change on a whim. The Bucks are smart to not engage in the Raptors aggressive reactions and continue to let them sleep-walk through this series as Toronto is the more talented team.
The Bucks have the Raptors on the ropes and do not need to make any changes, big or small. They just need to keep doing what they are doing and they will be alright.
The Bucks will continue to ride their hot shooting and amazing crowd in Game 4 as they pull out another victory at home. This time they will win a much-closer game, 103–99.
Independent Preview by
Why Bucks Won:
After appearing hesitant to attack the basket in game two, the Bucks were aggressive. Seemingly every play by Milwaukee started with dribble penetration. The Bucks’ drives lead to attempts at the rim or passes to perimeter weapons. Toronto couldn’t answer Milwaukee’s rim rumbles, leading to an early deficit. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon combined for 20 of the Bucks’ 29 assists.
Milwaukee was aggressive on defense as well, with the long arms of their starting unit giving the Raptors headaches. Off the bench, Matthew Dellavedova bothered Kyle Lowry, badgering his every move. Delly isn’t exactly a Patrick Beverley-level troll, but his (and the rest of the Bucks’) peskiness negated any Toronto comeback attempts.
Oh, and rookie Thon Maker unleashed this polite posterization on Serge Ibaka…
Why Raptors Lost:
Toronto could barely get their offense running Thursday night. Aside from Kyle Lowry, seemingly no player on the Raptors could find a rhythm. After a strong performance in the Raptors’ game two wins, DeMar DeRozan struggled, not making a single field goal.
Cory Joseph and Patrick Patterson shot a combined 2-of-10 from the field. Toronto looked like a different team away from the 6, with an over reliance on the perimeter shots, leading to them shooting a deflating 33.8% on the game.
The ball movement seemed stagnant, with the team notching their tenth assist with around five minutes left in the fourth quarter.
Game 4 Adjustments:
In order to gain a 3–1 advantage, Milwaukee needs to continue to drive-and-attack on offense. Toronto’s defense has no match for the Bucks’ length and versatility. They need to continue to exploit Brogdon and Antetokounmpo’s ability to create offense from penetration.
Toronto needs to tighten up on defense. Allowing a team to shoot 52.2% on offense shows a poor ability to rotate and close out. Offensively, Lowry and DeRozan have to be more than just scorers. Milwaukee’s game plan surely will be aimed at stopping the two, so the backcourt duo needs to find ways to act as facilitators. They showed defensive aggression in the second quarter — but it was too late.
Game 4 Prediction:
It’s been a tale of two teams for the Raptors. In their game two win, they looked cohesive, led by Lowry and DeRozan. In their losses, that same tandem looked disjointed.
After an embarrassing loss, Lowry and DeRozan will be out for vengeance. Toronto’s frontcourt of Ibaka and Valanciunas will also be looking to bounce back from a frustrating game as well.
If Toronto wants to salvage the series, they’ll need to snag a win on the road. Expect a strong performance by the Raptors to even the series.
